Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Finally after 2 weeks of warmer than normal temperatures, the northern part of Central America had a significant relief thanks to the tropical wave. Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua had a cloudy day with intermitent rains that brought to some locations the coolest highs in months.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F).
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.2°C (55.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F) Coolest since April 24.
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F) Coolest since March 20.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.0°C (82.4°F) Coolest since April 23.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Here comes another wave for between Monday and Tuesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 PM AST THU JUN 16 2011

.UPDATE...AFTER AN ALMOST BLANK RADAR THIS EVENING...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WILL NOT
AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS BEFORE
THE NIGHT IS OVER RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS CLEARED THE
AREA AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND BEYOND. A SECOND
HIGHLYU TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS VISIBLE NEAR 40 WEST AT IT
NORTHERN MOST POINT. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

DRYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THURSDAY`S WAVE...ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS FOR ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE APPEARS OVER PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE THEN INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.3 INCHES. BETWEEN THE BAND
OF MOISTURE AND THE WAVE THE MODELS TEND TO DEPRESS MOISTURE
CONSIDERABLY. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT THIS WAVE WHICH
SHOULD LAST THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE SOME HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
DURING ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 17/16Z. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PR AFT 17/16Z. 00Z RAOB SHOWED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
SFC TO 10 KFT AT 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10
KTS ABOVE 10 KFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO STRENGTHEN AND ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA IN RECENT DAYS...HAS
EXITED THE AREA AND CONTINUED WESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A SECOND AND FAIRLY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR 47 WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING..ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON
THE PRESENT MOVEMENT AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWING
PREVIOUS DAYS ACTIVITY WITH THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS NOW
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. SOME TRAILING MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...LOCAL
AREA REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS FOR ACTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A SLIGHTLY LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO JUMP TO VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES...IN A SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SO FOR NOW LOOKING FOR DIURNALLY CONVECTION TO BE
ENHANCED MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS WITH OVERALL PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
1.70 AND 1.85 INCHES TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 17/16Z. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG...LOW RAGGED
CLDS MAY HUG THE MTN TOPS OF PR DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
LEAST TIL 17/12Z. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR... WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FM 17/16Z-17/23Z. DURING THAT TIME PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND VCNTY OF TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE MENTIONED FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.97 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/PR. YESTERDAY 16 JUNE 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.95
SET IN 1943.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 89 81 / 20 30 30 30

[msbee]

Friday's Tropical Weather Discussion

Crown Weather Services


Issued: Friday, June 17, 2011 525 am EDT/425 am CDT

If you cannot see the maps, images and weather related graphics in your e-mail, you can view the entire forecast with the maps, images and weather related graphics at:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 .

Friday’s Tropical Weather Discussion:
Currently this morning we have a tropical wave that is tracking into the western Caribbean with some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring over the western and southwestern Caribbean as this tropical wave interacts with monsoonal moisture over the southwestern Caribbean. Surface and satellite analysis also showed a tropical wave approaching 50 West Longitude. This is actually a pretty robust looking tropical wave and it is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean by late this weekend into early next week. Given the robust look of this tropical wave, areas from the Barbados into the Windward Islands should be alert for heavy showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and rough seas from Saturday afternoon through much of Sunday.

It should be noted that a weak high pressure system is currently developing over the eastern Caribbean and if this tropical wave that is approaching 50 West Longitude retains its strength, it will find itself in a more favorable environment for development by later Sunday into Monday and it may be something that will need watching.

Now, both of these tropical waves will help to build heat and moisture over the southwestern Caribbean over the next week or so. At the same time, the monsoonal trough of low pressure is forecast to lift northward possibly into the Bay of Campeche by late next week. This may cause an area of low pressure to develop in either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the middle and later parts of next week.

The GFS model continues to insist that low pressure will develop in the Bay of Campeche as early as Wednesday and forecasts this low pressure system to bring abundant amounts of moisture to the central Gulf Coast next weekend as this low pressure system sits off of the southern and central Texas coast. The only other model consensus on this is the NOGAPS model which forecasts low pressure to develop in the Bay of Campeche by next Friday.

Given the ingredients of the monsoonal trough of low pressure lifting northward into the Bay of Campeche later next week, the piling up of heat and moisture from two tropical waves pushing into the western Caribbean by late next week, forecast upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation next week and potentially favorable environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche later next week into next weekend. So, the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf of Mexico may really need to be watched late next week into next weekend for the potential for a disturbance to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

For now, though, I do not expect tropical cyclone development through this weekend and likely into early next week.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

Read the last paragraph about the climate and see how it has rained in PR so far this year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE EACH DAY TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU SUN AT MOST AIRPORTS XCPT POSSIBLE TSRA AT
JMZ EACH AFTERNOON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION
MON-TUE WITH TSRA LIKELY AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...2011 REPRESENTS NOW THE FIFTH WETTEST YEAR TO DATE
ONLY TRAILING 2010 BY 0.85 INCHES. ONLY 4.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS
NEEDED TO BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE WETTEST MONTH FOR ANY YEAR ON
RECORD. THE WETTEST MONTH FOR ANY YEAR WAS MAY 1936 WHEN 16.88
INCHES WERE RECORDED.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE WETTEST YEARS TO DATE:

1) 45.89 IN 1902
2) 37.16 IN 1927
3) 34.57 IN 1956
4) 33.34 IN 2010
5) 32.49 IN 2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 30 30 10 20
STT 81 91 81 91 / 20 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

The temperatures today were normal in all the region:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F).
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.2°C (58.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (76.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here comes the next tropical wave that will provoke more rain for PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC
DERIVED TPW DEPICTED SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING SOUNDING DATA...AS WELL AS
GROUND BASED IPW SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW AROUND 1.70
INCHES...AS DRIER AIR FILTERED IN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG ATLANTIC
HIGH ACROSS ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 57 WEST THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AND OVERALL STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL BUT EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE EACH DAY TO INTERACT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH DAY. EXPECT THE
ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL NOW SUGGEST YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OR INDUCED TROUGH TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO ERODE SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME AS A
TUTT LOW DEVELOPS AND BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL FAVOR MORE UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE ENHANCED EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT BUT WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND SEE HOW THE EXPECTED PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX IN PASSING SHRA. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
VCSH WAS INCLUDED FOR THESE SITES. AFTER 18/16Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 18/21Z. LATEST AMDAR/AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 25 KTS FROM JUST ABOVE SFC TO
15 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 30
STT 90 80 90 81 / 10 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1122 AM AST SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ON MON AS S/W TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W WILL MOVE ACROS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ON MON. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...S/W TROUGH AT H25 NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PER MODEL FIELDS
SEEMS TO BE GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND ATTM. CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY IF IT CAN MOVE INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED OVR SOUTHWEST PR. NEW CELLS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH OR
GREATER AND CG LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JMZ LATER TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. ELSEWHERE JUST VCTS. NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION MON WITH TSRA LIKELY AND MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MDT/HVY TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS IN ENE WIND WAVES. SCEC
ARE IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 30
STT 90 80 90 81 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT JUN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS....A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...IT NOW
APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BRIEF "DRYING" IS ANTICIPATED LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY...
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY OVERALL DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON XCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT JMZ
SUN-MON AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE TSRA. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE ERN
CARIB MON WITH TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUE
EVENING ESPECIALLY ERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...FOR THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST.
THOMAS A TOTAL OF 18.13 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED SO FAR
THIS YEAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE SIXTH WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON
RECORD. THE AVG TEMP SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS BEEN 78.6 DEGS. THIS
REPRESENTS THE EIGHT COOLEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD.

FOR THE HENRY ROHLSEN ARPT IN CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...A TOTAL OF
6.16 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS
REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE ON RECORD AND
ALREADY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD WAS IN 1987 WHEN 7.83 INCHES OF RAIN WERE MEASURED. IN
ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 18.23 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED SO
FAR THIS YEAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE SEVENTH WETTEST START TO A YEAR
ON RECORD. LIKE IN ST. CROIX...THE AVG TEMP SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS
BEEN 78.5 DEGS. THIS REPRESENTS THE SIXTH COOLEST START TO A YEAR
ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 10 20 30 60
STT 81 90 81 90 / 30 30 40 50

[Macrocane]

COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MONTHS REGISTERED TODAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

Cooler than normal highs occurred today in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, some locations experienced their coldest maximum temps in several weeks. Near normal highs were registered in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. The lows were near normal in the whole region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F).
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.8°C (56.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.6°C (79.9°F) Coldest since March 21.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F) Coldest since April 22.
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F) Coldest since March 20.
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.0°C (70.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wave will increase the chance of showers from today in the Eastern Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY ERODED OVERHEAD AS SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATION SLIDES EASTWARDS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 59 WEST WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSING OF MID TO
UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND ONE OR TWO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EXPECT FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE THE ISLANDS TODAY.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY... EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WAS ALREADY
SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WARM...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION LOCAL AND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS EACH DAY. DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRIER TREND FOR THE ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY INDUCED SUMMER TIME CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX IN PASSING SHRA. AT THIS TIME...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED FOR THESE SITES. AFTER 19/17Z... ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 19/21Z. TJSJ 19/00Z
INDICATED MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 15 KFT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 30 30 60 60
STT 89 80 90 81 / 30 40 50 60

[Macrocane]

It seems that we're recovering from the drier than normal conditions at a very good rate as we've had widespread rains in El Salvador every day in the last 7 days, moderate to very heavy showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon, here are some of the accumulations:

San Vicente 105.2 mm/4.14 inches wettest place yesterday.
La Hachadura 70 mm/2.76 inches
El Salvador International Airport 45 mm/1.77 inches
San Francisco Gotera 20 mm/0.29 inches
San Salvador 9 mm/0.35 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHILE HIGH LEVEL S/W TROUGHS
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA. A TUTT IS XPCD TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THE CARIB SEA BUT ITS IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE TRENDED OVERALL DRIER OVR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH TROPICAL WAVE XPCD TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW. TIMING HAS ALSO CHANGED WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
XPCD TO REMAIN VERY DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION XPCD OVR CARIB
WATERS MAINLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. TUE NIGHT AND WED DRIER BEHIND
FIRST WAVE AND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. NEXT WAVE PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS THAN WITH
THE ONE MON NIGHT BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

IT APPEARS SAL EAST OF 50W WILL MAKE IT EVENTUALLY INTO THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE AIR LOOKS DEFINITELY STABLE OVR THE CNTRL
AND ERN ATLC BY PRESENCE OF STRATOCU NOT COMPLETELY SURE THAT
THERE IS ANY SAHARAN DUST OUT THERE. WE`LL NEED TO CHECK MODIS
IMAGERY TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY OF THAT BROWN YELLOWISH COLOR
TYPICALLY SEEN WITH SAHARAN DUST EVENTS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU MON XCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT JMZ
SUN-MON AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE TSRA. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE ERN
CARIB MON WITH TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO TUE
EVENING ESPECIALLY ERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLAND TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SCEC MAINLY FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 18 KT. SEAS 4-5 FT
POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 90 / 0 10 20 20
STT 80 90 80 91 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST SUN JUN 19 2011

PRC021-029-031-061-119-127-139-200400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0242.110620T0059Z-110620T0400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
SAN JUAN PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
859 PM AST SUN JUN 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN
JUAN AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 858 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND WILL
AFFECT BAYAMON AND GUAYNABO SHORTLY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6612 1839 6586 1828 6586 1836 6615

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEEK TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
GENERALLY MINIMAL.

THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL ADD SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE MAINTAINS...PWAT
VALUES CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...DECREASING
RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WELL BELOW 2.00 INCHES. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS PSBL ACROSS ERN PR TIL 20/12Z DUE TO PASSING LOW CLDS
AND SHRA. THEREAFTER...BTW 20/16-20/23Z EXPECT INCRG CLOUDINESS WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR...AND ENROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. INTMT MVFR/IFR CONDS PSBL
AT TJSJ...TJMZ...TJPS AND TJBQ DUE TO PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY DURG THE
AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 78 / 50 50 40 30
STT 90 80 91 80 / 50 50 40 30

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

PRC005-071-099-131-202200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0243.110620T1900Z-110620T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-
300 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN AND AGUADILLA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 258 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING LITTLE BUT
DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SMALL AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6715 1845 6701 1836 6691 1825 6691
1833 6711

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Nothing out of the ordinary is expected at least until next weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE A TUTT LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE NORTH OF PR LATER IN THE WEEK.
A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB BUT STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF PR BUT BULK OF THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVR CARIB WATERS SOUTH OF 17N.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CARIB COASTAL
WATERS AND ERN PR. LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW SHOULD RESULT IN
BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT BELIEVE SCT POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE.

AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED OVERALL DRIER OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THIS TREND CONTINUED TODAY. NEXT WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE PRETTY FAR SOUTH
WITH NO SIG IMPACTS OVR OUR AREA. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS CAN BE
SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY EAST OF 50W PER STRATOCU FIELD WHICH MAY MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY
CERTAIN. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR IN STORE FOR NEXT SUN
AND MON AS TUTT NEAR THE AREA MAY ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BUT EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS IMPACTS ARE STILL TO BE
DETERMINED.



&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR XCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT JMZ/JBQ AND ISX
IN POSSIBLE TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SCEC FOR WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 90 / 30 30 20 20
STT 78 90 78 91 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

PRC021-051-091-135-137-143-145-210415-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0244.110621T0108Z-110621T0415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
908 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 908 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE DIMINISH OR MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WARNED AREA.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650

$$

EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rain ( rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Jun 20 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.9C 90F 15.1mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.1C 84F 5.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 89F 2.6mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F trace
Rockley, S Barbados 32.3C 90F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.7C 89F 1.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.9C 88F 3.5mm

LeLamentin, Martinique 31.7C 89F 4.8mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.4C 89F 4.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.7C 89F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 30.6C 87F 1.1mm
San Juan, PR 31.1C 88F 16.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.3C 90F
Kingston, Jamaica 32.4C 90F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.0C 91F
Havana, Cuba 32.7C 91F 7.0mm
Key West, FL 31.7C 89F trace
Miami, FL 32.8C 91F 6.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 34.1C 93F 7.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.4C 81F trace

Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.5C 89F 2.8mm

INTERNATIONAL SPOTS

New York City, NY 27.2C 81F
Toronto, ON 25.0C 77F
Montreal, QC 24.8C 77F
London, UK 21.3C 70F 2.0mm
Paris, FR 21.5C 71F 1.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE CELLS FIRED UP EARLIER THIS EVENING AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY FROM
SAN JUAN NORTHWESTWARD TO DORADO. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUES OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT OVER LAND ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
RAINS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND MAY INDUCE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT BRIEFED
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE USVI TERMINALS...TJNR AND TJSJ. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SPREAD TOWARD THE WNW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
OF RAFAEL HERNANDEZ(TJBQ) AND EUGENIO MARIA DE HOSTOS AIRPORT(TJMZ).