WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

[supercane]

Map of JTWC advisory forecast track:


From PAGASA:
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "EGAY"
Issued at 5:45 a.m., Friday, 17 June 2011 The Low Pressure Area East of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depresssion and was named EGAY.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 310 km East of Surigao City
Coordinates: 9.7°N, 128.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 13 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:
170 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Sunday morning:
110 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Monday morning:
190 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora

TD "Egay" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today and the hourly updates.



WTPH RPMM 161800
TTT WARNING 01

AT 1800 16 JUNE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171800 ONE ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ONE EAST AT 181800 ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 191800 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

Latest KNES satellite bulletin in at T1.5/1.5:
TXPQ24 KNES 162109
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 16/2032Z
C. 9.5N
D. 129.4E
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FROM DEGRADED IMAGERY FOR DT=1.5. MET AND
PT=1.5. SINCE IMAGERY WAS DEGRADED FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

Latest vis shows convection displaced from center.

[supercane]

03Z JTWC advisory out early:
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.8N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 129.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN



Struggling a bit, as evidenced by JTWC's 0Z satellite bulletin with T1.0, although compared to a few hours earlier there is more convection about the center:
TPPN10 PGTW 170026
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (E OF MINDANAO)
B. 16/2332Z
C. 10.0N
D. 129.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5 STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS A .20 WRAP,
WHICH RESULTS IN A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2051Z 9.4N 129.6E SSMS
16/2130Z 9.4N 129.4E TRMM
SMITH

[supercane]

First JTWC prognostic reasoning out:
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING AT THE CENTER AND
BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 162344Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS ONE
SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS EARLIER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS
AND UNDER 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AT TAU 96,
AND THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A CHANGE TO THAT PHILOSOPHY. IT HAS THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE REGION NOT INFLUENCING CYCLONE INTENSITY AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF MORE
FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GET CLOSER TO THE NER AXIS. AFTER A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CHINA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, THE
STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND 06W WILL TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND APPROACHES THE STR AXIS
NEAR TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PHASE OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND SLOW INTENSIFY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNDER-
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ONLY
FAIR. THIS FORECAST FAVORS CONSENSUS AND THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS,
WHICH FALL NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. NOGAPS HAS NOT BEEN
INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS, AND JGSM AND WBAR ARE THE WESTERN
OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE PHILIPPINE INTERIOR BY TAU 36.
NNNN

00Z JMA analysis has a TD with 1008 mb central pressure on the map but no position data in the text.

Shear map with satellite/obs overlay showing easterly shear around 20kt.

[supercane]

PAGASA issues its second advisory on TD Egay. Largely unchanged:


WTPH RPMM 170000
TTT WARNING 02

AT 0000 17 JUNE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST AT 190000 ONE FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

Latest SSD Dvorak at T2.0/2.0, up from T1.5/1.5 six hours ago:
TXPQ24 KNES 170328
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 10.5N
D. 128.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0.
MET = 1.5 AND PT = 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED,
BUT USING SHEAR PATTERN YIELD TOO HIGH OF DT.
NIL
...KIBLER

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just posted my thoughts and analysis on EGAY, really think it could be a drencher for the PI.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It5zBxxQQgk[/youtube]

[KWT]

Rob, yeah I agree the fact the convection is getting sheared off to t he west so the rain is all to the west clearly.

[Grifforzer]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 10.7N 128.5E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 13.2N 126.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.7N 128.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[dexterlabio]

I'm thinking that it would turn into something like Sarika, with the present shear condition over the area, continuous intensification is not guaranteed. The system could remain weak, although it is likely to bring heavy rains over Luzon.

Here's the steering layer chart. Well I don't really know how to use this thing but I know you guys can tell something out of it. I am also clicking on the links of euro and other models but I couldn't access them anymore. Maybe they are now reserving their materials for the pro-mets.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Footage of flooding in Cebu City

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJzSxjUOqPs[/youtube]

[oaba09]

The JTWC track seems to have shifted more towards the west



WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.7N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 127.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

^Well I thought it's located more to the west a bit at this time, if I'm not mistaken and I'm not sure if the center is somewhere in that area of deep convection.


Also with this latest satfix from JTWC.

TPPN10 PGTW 171223

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (NE OF MINDANAO)

B. 17/1132Z

C. 11.6N

D. 127.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDED A 1.5 DT. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


QUAST

[supercane]

JMA is issuing advisories. Latest:
WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 12.0N 127.6E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 14.5N 125.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



WTPH RPMM 171200
TTT WARNING 04

AT 1200 17 JUNE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181200 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 191200 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 201200 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA



15Z JTWC prognostic reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 170921Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TD 06W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STEERING RIDGE. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE,
IT WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GETS CLOSER
TO THE NER AXIS. CONCURRENTLY, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORHTWEST. THESE
FACTORS WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL, ALBEIT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
TD INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 06W WILL DIAGONALLY CROSS THE LUZON STRAIT
JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, THEN INTO THE CHINESE COASTLINE. INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE MAKING LANDFAL. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48,
AFTERWHICH THE MODELS SPREAD OUT WITH ECMWF AND WBAR TO THE LEFT OF
AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AN UNLIKELY WESTWARD TRACK.//
NNNN

Latest SSD satellite bulletin:
TXPQ24 KNES 171513
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 17/1432Z
C. 11.0N
D. 127.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...POSITION OF LLC STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. 3 TENTHS
BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS A 2.0. PT IS A 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/1221Z 12.3N 127.3E AMSU
...NEWHARD

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... intense convection

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.6N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.0N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.7N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 126.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 171738Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A 171730Z PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.0. TD
06W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 36
AND TAU 72, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE TRACK OF TD
06W. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY BE
ENHANCED DURING THAT PERIOD, ALLOWING TD 06W TO CONTINUE A SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND DRIVEN BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS LIMITED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE INTENSITIFICATION RATE
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH
ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WITH NOGAPS DEPICTING
IMMEDIATE POLEWARD MOTION AND ECMWF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 48.
THE NOGAPS SCENARIO APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING A CONTINUOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NO MECHANISM TO
INTRODUCE A WEAKNESS TO THE RIDGE SO QUICKLY. THE ECMWF KEEPS TD 06W
WEAK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYLE, STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN
MODEL GROUPING CLUSTERED AROUND THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING DUE TO A STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared image

[oaba09]

Latest from PAGASA(not that different from the JTWC track)



Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "EGAY"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 18 June 2011 Tropical Depresssion "EGAY" continues to move northwestward and now threatens Bicol Region.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 200 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar

Coordinates: 12.7°N, 126.6°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
110 km North of Virac, Catanduanes
Monday morning:
80 km Northeast of Tuguegarao City
Tuesday morning:
140 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes or
90 km South of Taiwan

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 13.3N 126.2E POOR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 16.1N 124.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Simple question, a good site to go to, to display observations across the PI instead of looking up each ICAO individually. If any one knows could you pass it along.

Also with the ridge building in to the W looks as though HK could get soaked out of this, (possible). I still agree with everyone here on that note that the rain will be the biggest problem out of this, especially based on its current track it reminds me a lot of Aere that brought an abundant amount of rain.

[supercane]

For a nice printout, go to Weather Underground and enter the country name in the search box, which will list cities around the country. For instance, here is the observation list for the Philippines from Weather Underground. This can then be sorted by valid time. The good thing is that is pulls up both METAR and SYNOP reports. Another option is to go to the Surface page at UCAR's Real Time Weather surface and use its METAR search tool. You have to know the 4-letter ICAO code. For the Philippines, the ICAO codes begin with RP, so a search for RP* brings up the latest METARs for the Philippines (I picked raw, but you can pick translated as well). You could also try NOAA's site at the NWS's International Weather Conditions page.

Finally, you could use IDV to download surface (METAR, SYNOP, and BUOY) and map it out. Here is a link to a surface analysis overlaid with the latest vis sat that I made in IDV (large 1 MB, click on image when page comes up to view it fully).

Two questions for you:
1. Which site do you use for your sat picks that cycle for 24hr day and night for your video briefings?
2. What is the ocean wind site you used?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Supercane you really need to get out more, your always here with some great information and an answer to the question. Thank you so much. I have been typing each ICAO individually in to ADDS, this makes life easier.

Your two questions though, I use http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ for the entire western pacific but if you want the zoomed in IR to VIS high definition then NRLMRY is great

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... DAYNGT.jpg

And last I think your talking about ocean observations not ASCAT (http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TData.php/) imagery, yet this is sailwxhttp://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

I hope that helps, also want to mention I am trying to consolidate all the forecast links I know in to one page at http://www.westernpacificweather.com/Links.html, I'll be sure to add those ob ones for the PI on to it, if you see anything else you think could be added let me know. And thanks again!