EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:54 pm

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:46 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 180028
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT JUN 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922011) 20110618 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110618  0000   110618  1200   110619  0000   110619  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  94.1W   13.0N  95.7W   13.8N  97.5W   14.6N  99.4W
BAMD    12.3N  94.1W   12.8N  95.7W   13.5N  97.5W   14.4N  99.4W
BAMM    12.3N  94.1W   12.9N  95.7W   13.6N  97.8W   14.5N  99.9W
LBAR    12.3N  94.1W   12.7N  95.9W   13.8N  98.4W   15.3N 101.1W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          53KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110620  0000   110621  0000   110622  0000   110623  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N 101.2W   17.2N 103.8W   17.9N 104.8W   18.1N 105.1W
BAMD    15.5N 101.2W   18.0N 104.4W   19.3N 106.6W   19.7N 108.6W
BAMM    15.5N 102.1W   17.0N 105.5W   17.2N 107.4W   16.5N 108.4W
LBAR    17.5N 104.0W   22.0N 107.4W   26.5N 105.1W   31.3N  99.1W
SHIP        64KTS          65KTS          54KTS          46KTS
DSHP        64KTS          65KTS          54KTS          46KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  94.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  93.2W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  11.7N LONM24 =  92.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

#23 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:44 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180542
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARED TO BE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT REMAINED CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER IS
NOT YET WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

#24 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:40 am

500AM PDT : still at 60%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO
INDICATE THAT SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

WeatherGuesser · #25 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:12 am

.AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...

Now see, to me that's inconsistent. If they use terms like 'later today or tomorrow', wouldn't you think they'd go higher than 60% ?

#26 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:17 am

I was right when a couple of nights ago I said that 92E was not going to do much in 48 hrs, as models were showing a persistent NE shear to be over the system, I think that the proximity to land has affected its northerly surface inflow.

#27 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:57 am

Looking at the low cloud lines, it appears the convection is finally over (or right next to) the center of the LLC.

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 1:43 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

#30 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:22 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:.AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...

Now see, to me that's inconsistent. If they use terms like 'later today or tomorrow', wouldn't you think they'd go higher than 60% ?

Typically they put that line on 90/100% outlooks, not at forecast for "systems" like this one.

#31 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:23 pm

Well, it *could* become better organized rapidly later today and become a TD tonight or tomorrow...but they are not sure enough of that to go higher than 60%.

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:38 pm

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER...AND ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

#33 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:54 pm

Latest vis shows most convection west of estimated center.

Likely all NHC is waiting for is increased and persistent organization on satellite, as ASCAT quite convincing otherwise:

plasticup · #34 Postby **plasticup** » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:38 pm

Models have a good grip on this now. All are initializing and bringing it up to TS. Some go to Cat2/3 before it moves inland.

#35 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:43 am

1100 PM TWO: 80%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Chacor · #36 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:53 am

SHIPS model peaks at 63 kt.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP922011  06/19/11  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    36    42    53    62    63    56    51    45    38    33
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    36    42    53    62    63    56    51    45    38    33
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    35    41    46    49    48    44    38    32
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    19    18    11    14    15    11    21    17    11    10     6    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -4    -2     1     6     0     0     2     1     8    11     7    11
SHEAR DIR         60    70    87    78    73    95    81    99   105   103   115   166   134
SST (C)         29.5  29.6  29.6  29.7  29.6  29.4  29.0  28.4  27.2  25.9  24.5  23.6  23.4
POT. INT. (KT)   160   161   160   161   160   158   153   147   134   121   106    97    94
200 MB T (C)   -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     7     8     7     8     6     6     4     4     3     2     1
700-500 MB RH     80    78    76    77    77    71    74    66    71    68    64    60    56
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    11    12    13    14    15    14    11    11    10     9     9
850 MB ENV VOR    79    67    60    57    55    52    74    77    74    62    73    49    68
200 MB DIV        69    81   106   137   147   151   134   160   144    46    40     0    -3
700-850 TADV      -3    -4    -2    -2     0    -1    -5   -14    -5    -5   -11    -9     0
LAND (KM)        374   373   375   356   336   279   209   221   252   322   402   424   457
LAT (DEG N)     12.8  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9     8     8     8     7     7     7     6     7     6     6     6
HEAT CONTENT      59    59    50    47    55    52    39    25    10     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  526  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  70.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  14.  22.  28.  31.  31.  31.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.   9.   9.   8.   7.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -5.  -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   3.   5.   7.   6.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   2.   0.  -2.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.  11.  17.  28.  37.  38.  31.  26.  20.  13.   8.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011     INVEST 06/19/11  06 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.8 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.4 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  54.0 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 135.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 108.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.7
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.8 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    30% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    16% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011     INVEST 06/19/11  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Website · #37 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 4:36 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SINCE IT
COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:49 am

Looking good to be a TD later today.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 8:04 am

TD 2-E at 8 AM PDT.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106191257
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 8:08 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1301 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (EP022011) 20110619 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110619 1200 110620 0000 110620 1200 110621 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 99.5W 14.6N 101.2W 15.8N 102.7W 16.7N 104.0W
BAMD 13.4N 99.5W 14.6N 101.3W 15.9N 102.9W 17.2N 104.2W
BAMM 13.4N 99.5W 14.6N 101.3W 15.7N 103.0W 16.6N 104.5W
LBAR 13.4N 99.5W 14.3N 101.2W 15.7N 103.2W 17.2N 105.2W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 61KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110621 1200 110622 1200 110623 1200 110624 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 105.1W 18.3N 106.5W 19.0N 108.1W 19.2N 110.8W
BAMD 18.2N 105.6W 19.1N 108.7W 18.7N 111.7W 17.8N 114.8W
BAMM 17.4N 106.0W 17.8N 108.1W 17.9N 110.0W 17.7N 112.3W
LBAR 18.9N 106.9W 22.1N 109.1W 24.9N 109.0W 27.2N 108.1W
SHIP 69KTS 55KTS 42KTS 31KTS
DSHP 69KTS 55KTS 42KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 99.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 96.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

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