Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Dean4Storms]

GGEM also shows a 1008mb low drifting northward toward the BOC at 144hrs.......


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PNA144.gif

[vbhoutex]

Tropical development looks unlikely due to moderate to strong westerly shear in the central to northern Gulf. As for being a "drought buster", almost certainly not. Maybe enough to water the trees/grass if we're lucky in TX/LA coastal areas.

The man states it well. I didn't even look at the shear(dumbie!!)and I still have come to the same conclusion. I am HOPING for everyone calling for development of rains and/or tropical weather to be right, but my skin doesn't look good blue so I am not holding my breath. I sincerely hope my conclusions are incorrect, but I just don't see anything of significance coming our way in SE TX except a possible beginning of a pattern change?

[southerngale]

Whether it develops or not, NWS LCH has put rain in our forecast... something we haven't seen in a long time.

40% Tuesday, 50% Wednesday and 40% Thursday, with 20-30% chances on some of the other days.


That's just unheard of these days!

[Rgv20]

Interesting to note that the GFS has the BOC low developing later more in line with the Euro. Going to be interesting to see the trends this up coming week.

Anyway Texas and Louisiana should get some increase moisture by the middle of the week.

Forecast Rainfall by the 18zGFS from Thursday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.

[TexasF6]

If we could relocate that bullseye right over Austin, TX....

[MississippiHurricane]

Man that would be great nice rain maybe some winds and cooler temps!

[vbhoutex]

Interesting to note that the GFS has the BOC low developing later more in line with the Euro. Going to be interesting to see the trends this up coming week.

Anyway Texas and Louisiana should get some increase moisture by the middle of the week.

Forecast Rainfall by the 18zGFS from Thursday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 240hrs.gif

If the GFS continues to trend towards later development like the Euro then I will really begin to watch this closely.(not that I won't still be watching it anyway) I have thought all along it was too early with the possible development.

[Macrocane]

The scenario depcited by the GFS kind of reminds me of last year's TD 2, although my personal and unofficial opinion is that this system may be a wetter, bigger and a little better organized system than TD 2.

[Rgv20]

I think one of the factors is how much heat and energy the tropical wave currently near the Windward Islands would provide to all the moisture in the BOC. Would it help kick start a Low in the South Western GOM...only time will tell.

Here is the latest satellite imagery of the Tropical wave.


Latest Analysis of the Caribbean.


And the 72hr forecast from the NHC.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Euro continues to advertise some Bay of Campeche mischief in the longer range. It’s also interesting to note that the 06Z HWRF run for 92E picked up on a EPAC disturbance that appears to cross over into the Western Basin. We will see.

[Weatherfreak000]

2011 surprisingly hostile out there so far in the month of June which is now almost over...



Another season gone by and 2005 still reigns. It's IMO important to say that now because we are finally using Katrina's name-set again. That means recent memory from this point on we will look at TS/Hurricane Katia...and Katrina will begin the plummet into obscurity. How long till we can forget that one?


It's gonna be a long time no doubt, but we've finally taken that first step..

[PauleinHouston]

Morning to all.

Have been watching the various gulf images/loops this morning and mslp/pw values. To my highly untrained eye, there appears a circulation just West of Yucatan in BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

With the ridge over SE Texas starting to lift NE, moisture surge is (edit "hopefuly") coming and I hope some very much needed rain. My local station in League City (half way between Houston and Galveston) has recorded a grand total of .10" of rain since March 14th. This gives new meaning to dry!

[lrak]

I see that too, but satellites sure play funny business on teh eye.

[tailgater]

A upper low looks to be cutting off in the BOC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
That should curtail anything developing anytime soon.

[vbhoutex]

Morning to all.

Have been watching the various gulf images/loops this morning and mslp/pw values. To my highly untrained eye, there appears a circulation just West of Yucatan in BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Select MSLP and Fronts as options as it's now showing a 1012mb area just south of the visible circulation.

With the ridge over SE Texas starting to lift NE, moisture surge is coming and I hope some very much needed rain. My local station in League City (half way between Houston and Galveston) has recorded a grand total of .10" of rain since March 14th. This gives new meaning to dry!

It appears to me that you are seeing the different cloud layers(levels) moving along the air flow as opposed to any turning near the surface or even the mid-levels. I still have to question our local OCMs and their play on the weather this week as there is going to have to be a much stronger and quicker surge of moisture heading N to NW if SE TX and the W GOM are going to get any kind of activity from this.

[PauleinHouston]

Thanks vb...as I said, highly untrained eye, lol.

Yeah, it appears as part of the upper level trough between FL and SW Gulf as mentioned in TWD this morning.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS shows the bulk of the disturbance moving toward the north central gulf coast

[ROCK]

I dont care what it is rain,T-storm,TD or even fog... ..we need some moisture here in SE Texas. Already water rationing in effect with no measurable rain fall for what 150+ days....that my friends is insane...my grass has turned to hay...my pool loses about 2 inches of water a day. Hell my pool is running about 92F during the day...it is horrible....

Ivan- have you seen the NAM?

[ROCK]

Thanks vb...as I said, highly untrained eye, lol.

Yeah, it appears as part of the upper level trough between FL and SW Gulf as mentioned in TWD this morning.

not to mention all the dry air in the GOM right now....moisture next week yes but anything more I highly doubt IMO....the shear is screaming in the GOM right now....those tstorm are barfing outflow boundaries so first sign nothing at the surface....

[Sanibel]

The models can tend to be blind to prevailing conditions like the dry conditions preventing formation.