WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR
18.4N 104.1W AT 21/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
EC
EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
THE SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...WITH
THE FORMATION OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KT DURING THE PERIOD...BUT STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
THINKING...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. BY 72 HOURS..THE
CYCLONE WILL REACH MUCH COOLER SSTS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER
QUICKLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALYZED NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER OVERNIGHT...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC STEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AND BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36
HOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AS THE CYCLONE MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 13.7N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
THE SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...WITH
THE FORMATION OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KT DURING THE PERIOD...BUT STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
THINKING...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. BY 72 HOURS..THE
CYCLONE WILL REACH MUCH COOLER SSTS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER
QUICKLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALYZED NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER OVERNIGHT...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC STEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AND BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36
HOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AS THE CYCLONE MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 13.7N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:It will be interesting to see how this one behaves. It has gotten it's act together rather quickly over the last 24 hours...perhaps RI is in it's future?
Based on forecast, does not look likely it will hit a major status, but may hit hurricane status quickly, if that counts as RI.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 13.7N 99.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:RI is considered an increase of wind speeds of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in a 24 hour period.
Thanks b - I wasn't sure... in that case, you may be right.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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brunota2003
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 38
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- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST.
BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.67 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AS MUCH AS 35 MILES...
55 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST.
BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.67 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AS MUCH AS 35 MILES...
55 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
It has organized fairly fast since yesterday, although it is not expected to be as intense as Adrian it will affect land so it's a very important systems to watch. Beatriz may help to releieve the drought that Mexico has been suffering this year and it may cause torrential and destructive rains, let's hope for the first option.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
This storm is organizing fast as you can see.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...BEATRIZ MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION. TWO CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BEATRIZ SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED OVER VERY WARM
WATERS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5
WHEN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/10. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE STEERING PATTERN...SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
BEATRIZ TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO
AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. BY 72 HOURS THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKENING CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...BEATRIZ MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION. TWO CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BEATRIZ SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED OVER VERY WARM
WATERS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5
WHEN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/10. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE STEERING PATTERN...SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
BEATRIZ TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO
AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. BY 72 HOURS THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKENING CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
That looks like its going to be a very close call for Mexico, system looks pretty good right now, a hurricane certainly is possible from the looks of things. Warnings will obviously have to be adjusted northwards as well soon.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO...BEATRIZ LIKELY TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO...BEATRIZ LIKELY TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
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brunota2003
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At first I was unimpressed with Beatriz when the convection started dying off earlier. However, I am afraid I underestimated him/her? because, while the convection was weakening, it was using that time to instead become better organized. Now the convection is wrapping around the center, and I expect the next 12 hours or so the convection will be on the increase.
I am still waiting on the MIMIC-TC loops and images to start flowing.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am still waiting on the MIMIC-TC loops and images to start flowing.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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