Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[jinftl]

Climatology isn't really on the side of development - granted, if we are going to see developement this time of year, it will be in the Gulf...but from 1851-2009, development from June 21 through 30 has been anemic:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[Sanibel]

There's a very weak hint of a spin headed towards the BOC.

[Dean4Storms]

Morning to all.

Have been watching the various gulf images/loops this morning and mslp/pw values. To my highly untrained eye, there appears a circulation just West of Yucatan in BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

With the ridge over SE Texas starting to lift NE, moisture surge is (edit "hopefuly") coming and I hope some very much needed rain. My local station in League City (half way between Houston and Galveston) has recorded a grand total of .10" of rain since March 14th. This gives new meaning to dry!

Think you are seeing the ULL over the BOC.

[Dean4Storms]

The only spin in the area of the BOC is an upper level low.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[southerngale]

Drought buster? It's gonna take a LOT of rain to bust this drought!

65% of Texas is in the worst category and 89% is in the worst 2 categories.




U.S. Drought Monitor

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro has our Gulf disturbance stronger at the end of June..a couple days later than the GFS but the same idea. Movement toward the Upper Texas coast and Louisiana.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro strongest run yet

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[cycloneye]

IMO, we dont need NOGAPS,UKMET or CMC, as a consensus between only GFS and ECMWF is sufficient to be credible to think the scenario they are portraying is going to occur.Of course,we need more runs to see if the consensus between the two continues to build or it falls apart.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro does suggest lower pressures across the Western Gulf in the long range...

[RachelAnna]

An upper Texas/Louisiana disturbance would be a blessing, but I am not 100% sold on that outcome as of yet. Hoping for it, but hoping a little reverse psychology will attract it to the Houston area!

[midnight8]

An upper Texas/Louisiana disturbance would be a blessing, but I am not 100% sold on that outcome as of yet. Hoping for it, but hoping a little reverse psychology will attract it to the Houston area!

Praying we get some kind of rain before they ban us from watering gardens. Everything is drying up and dying.

[Ptarmigan]

Drought buster? It's gonna take a LOT of rain to bust this drought!

65% of Texas is in the worst category and 89% is in the worst 2 categories.


http://i56.tinypic.com/2re3wop.png

U.S. Drought Monitor

It is a good start that we get rain. Better than no rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Climatology isn't really on the side of development - granted, if we are going to see developement this time of year, it will be in the Gulf...but from 1851-2009, development from June 21 through 30 has been anemic:

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/474/62130nhc.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Don't care if anything develops. I want rain.

[Ptarmigan]

I dont care what it is rain,T-storm,TD or even fog... ..we need some moisture here in SE Texas. Already water rationing in effect with no measurable rain fall for what 150+ days....that my friends is insane...my grass has turned to hay...my pool loses about 2 inches of water a day. Hell my pool is running about 92F during the day...it is horrible....

Ivan- have you seen the NAM?

We may as well be a desert right now.

[lrak]

And don't forget surf

Kidding aside will S Tex get any T storms?

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

falling pressure, and is that an ull off the western yucatan?


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Rgv20]

12zGFS and Euro Ensembles still forecasting lower than normal 500mb heights in the western gulf by the end of June.

[Dean4Storms]

Well at least it is becoming plausible that someone from TX to FL and anywhere in between is likely to see some good rainfall over the next couple of weeks. All these areas are experiencing drought and maybe if we get lucky everyone takes in some here or there!!

[gatorcane]

The NE extension of this Yucatan trough has created a good day of afternoon thundestorm activity across parts of interior Central Florida and over a widespread area of South Florida, helping the drought conditions in these areas.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS and Nogaps agree on a broad low around the yucatan in the 180hr mark that would put it on Monday 06/27.

0zNogaps


0zGFS


Sorry for the double post but I thought I was posting in this thread instead of Global Model runs discussion.