WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great video Rob as always.

In regards to most typhoon walloped town in the Wpac I think Hualien in Taiwan would take the top spot probably closely followed by Aparri. Between 2005 - 2010 Hualien has been eyewalled by major typhoons on numerous occasions and the town I've most frequently visited whilst shooting storms.

In regard to 06W, the models are shifting it closer to Hong Kong at this time. I think once it clears Luzon it will start getting it's act together a bit. Shear is pretty low in northern part of SCS right now. If it does slow down near the coast like HKO and GFS are forecasting then it could be a real drencher for S China!

[Typhoon10]

Has anyone got the latest forecast tracks? HKO has it swinging south of Hong Kong....

[oaba09]

Has anyone got the latest forecast tracks? HKO has it swinging south of Hong Kong....

latest from JTWC:

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks James about the question in regards to the most hit town, those regions are defiantly magnets it seems.

As for HK they are steering it farther South than what the other agencies are saying, if the ridge holds in place to the N that could be very possible. I think your right though James that it could get its act together more in the SCS, defiantly don't think it will get up to TY though, still going to be a big rain factor in china.

[zaqxsw75050]

Here is what James was talking about. If the shear doesn't pick up in 06w's path, then it will be in better environment pretty soon.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 19.1N 122.2E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 20.5N 118.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =




WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 122.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 122.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.1N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.5N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.9N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.5N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN



TXPQ24 KNES 191505
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 19/1432Z
C. 18.9N
D. 122.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

713
WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 19.3N 120.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 20.5N 117.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



TPPN10 PGTW 191820
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NE OF LUZON)
B. 19/1732Z
C. 19.7N
D. 121.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP
OF .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AND MET AGREE.
FT IS 1.5 DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

Looking pretty sad right now:

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.6N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.1N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.5N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.9N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.2N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 120.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191730Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 191724Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 06W HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVEER, A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT
OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A
TRANSISTORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. WITH IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
LOWER ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING
PATTERN. FORECASTED INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

550
WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 19.3N 120.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 20.5N 117.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



TXPQ24 KNES 192201
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 19/2001Z
C. 20.1N
D. 120.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON 2/10 BANDING AROUND PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. FT
IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
19/1806Z 20.1N 121.3E AMSU
...SWANSON

[supercane]

607
WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 20.2N 119.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 20.6N 116.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


TPPN10 PGTW 200016
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (NE OF LUZON)
B. 19/2332Z
C. 20.4N
D. 120.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP
OF .30 YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE AT 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.7N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.0N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.5N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.4N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 119.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 19.3N 117.5E POOR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 19.3N 115.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.8N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.2N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.6N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.9N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W,LOCATED 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. REMARKS: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W,LOCATED 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING OVER TAIWAN HAS PROVIDED A
BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING IN MILD INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS
INCLUDING A 201201Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS ALSO REVEAL AN INCREASE IN
CURVED BANDING. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION STILL EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
LLCC, HOWEVER, A PRODUCT OF THE SEASONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA SURGING TOWARD THE LOWER PRESSURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 35 KNOTS, A PRESSURE REPORT FROM DONGSHA DAO ISLAND, AND A SHIP
REPORT SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
KEEPING IT FROM BEING SHEARED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES SPINNING OUT OF
THE SEASONAL EASTERN CHINA UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE MOST RECENT
HONG KONG SKEW-T DOES NOT SHOW NORTHEASTERLIES BELOW 20 KFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
THAT HAD EXISTED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE PAST
WEEK HAS FILLED CONSIDERABLY, EASING THE SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ABOVE
THE SYSTEM. THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
WANTED AND TS 06W IS NOW BEING WEAKLY GUIDED TO THE WEST BY THE
EASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 06W WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK TO LANDFALL OVER
THE GUANGDONG PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BOOSTING THE SYSTEM WILL CUT OFF AS
THE MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM, ALONG TRACK
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL COMPENSATE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AT OR NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WILL HOLD STEADY AT 15 KNOTS AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE 29 DEGREES ALL THE WAY IN TO THE NEAR-COASTAL
REGION. NEAR THE COAST, A MODERATE INCREASE IN VWS AND DECREASE IN
SST WILL OCCUR. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALIGNED CONSIDERABLY ON BOTH
TRACK AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
INFLUENCE OF EGRR, WHICH IS NOW THE ONLY OUTLIER.//
NNNN

[supercane]

015
WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 19.1N 116.6E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 19.8N 114.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



TPPN10 PGTW 201834
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NE OF LUZON)
B. 20/1732Z
C. 19.8N
D. 116.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DT WAS TOO WEAK. PT AND MET CAME
TO 1.5. PT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

[supercane]

JTWC no longer predicting intensification to TS strength.
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.6N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.4N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.0N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 116.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W,
LOCATED 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ORBITING ABOUT A LOOSELY DEFINED
CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY IS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW OR CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. A 201752Z AMSU PASS SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT INFLOW INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A CONVERGENT REGION OF
WIND FLOW AND SUBJECT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (20KTS). THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE VWS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO THE LACK OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASIATIC
HIGH. THE ASIATIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND 06W WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
NNNN


HKO does have Signal 1 in effect.
Bulletin issued at 03:45 HKT 21/Jun/2011

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 4 a.m., the tropical depression near Dongsha was estimated to be about 420 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.3 degrees north 116.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move west at about 10 kilometres per hour crossing the northern part of the South China Sea.

[KWT]

A little bit surprising that this system has lasted as long as it has, just about done enough to keep itself going eh!

[wyq614]

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 201900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1104 (11xx) INITIAL TIME 201900 UTC
00HR 19.7N 116.9E 995HPA 18M/S
30KTS 100KM
P12HR NW 10KM/H=
NNNN

We upgraded it to TS~

[supercane]

062
WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 19.1N 116.2E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 20.6N 114.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 210100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1104 (11xx) INITIAL TIME 210100 UTC
00HR 19.7N 116.6E 995HPA 18M/S
30KTS 100KM
P12HR NW 5KM/H=

TPPN10 PGTW 202348
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (NE OF LUZON)
B. 20/2332Z
C. 19.6N
D. 116.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS A .20 WRAP,
RESULTING IN 1.0DT. MET AND PT CAME TO 2.0. DT USED TO
DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1921Z 19.4N 116.8E TRMM
20/2139Z 19.4N 116.5E SSMS
SMITH

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA jjust upgraded this to TS Haima...

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA jjust upgraded this to TS Haima...

Yup, it's really looking much better than it has done at any point over last few days and is consolidating nicely!

Squally showers already sweeping across Hong Kong and standby signal 1 currently up!

[senorpepr]

JMA jjust upgraded this to TS Haima...

WTPQ20 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 19.1N 115.6E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 20.5N 113.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 230600UTC 22.0N 110.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =