Southern high cell, a pattern?

[Recurve]

Anybody have any thoughts on the the high pressure pattern over the western Atlantic in recent weeks and what it might mean this season?

South Florida's drought continues. I keep hearing about stable layers, convective inhibition, dry air, lack of troughs. High pressure seems to be entrenched and not far enough north (or south?) so that Caribbean moisture lifts over south Florida. Discussions mention suppressed Pwats.

Of course I'm an amateur, just a longtime south Floridian with some climate perspective. Do people with knowledge who've been watching surface conditions and know about trends have any ideas? Is this meso-scale or bigger? Is it any kind of pattern that tends to persist? Is there a high-pressure pattern that's bad for the southeast in terms of steering currents? I know we don't want a blocking high stretching east of us and just north of our latitude (25 north Andrew!) when something's approaching.

Or it all just changes weekly, calm down dude? This is not an east-coast landfall pattern. It will all depend on the timing of troughs sweeping eastward, and there will be troughs....?

Just looking for some interesting enlightening discussion in this calm.

[MGC]

Perhaps 1980 all over again.....MGC

[Ptarmigan]

Florida has their Cockroach Ridge depriving them of rain like Texas.

[Janie2006]

Perhaps 1980 all over again.....MGC

Geeeez, don't say that. I think that was the hottest summer I've ever experienced, except for trips to the Southwest, etcetera.

The persistent high pressure (588+) has been anomalous for May and early June, that's certainly true. All indications point to the high being shunted aside later this week, but whether that indicates a long-term pattern change is still an open question IMO. GFS is pretty persistent in keeping general troughiness around the Southeast through the first part of July, but everyone knows that at that range the GFS is off in the corner smoking meth or something. On the other hand, if GFS is incorrect and "Monster High" re-establishes itself and persists into July it will be a real scorcher.

I do know that it would be quite abnormal to have strong high pressure dominate the SE CONUS throughout the course of the summer, so my concern is that the high pressure won't be nearly strong enough when we really need it (i.e., an approaching hurricane).

[Recurve]

Thanks for that perspective and info Janie. I see that for the Gulf you would want a high blocking anything moving north in the gulf, but for us -- SE Florida -- I think we don't want it because it would send storms coming from the Atlantic that would maybe recurve before they get to us to instead come straight at us, if I understand things.

[Janie2006]

Thanks for that perspective and info Janie. I see that for the Gulf you would want a high blocking anything moving north in the gulf, but for us -- SE Florida -- I think we don't want it because it would send storms coming from the Atlantic that would maybe recurve before they get to us to instead come straight at us, if I understand things.

Yah, I see your point. I suppose I was speaking from a northern Gulf sort of perspective. A powerful high squatting over the SE US would send a storm straight your way, assuming proper trajectory, etc.

[weatherwindow]

as a fellow conch, i have a vested interest in an extended blocking pattern over central florida and anything tropical approaching florida south of 25degN. i seem to remember a posting, earlier this year, suggesting that we are entering the positive phase of the PDO, the pacific decadal oscillation. it was suggested that a +pdo tends to be associated with a + nao. a +nao, in turn, portends a stronger, more westwardly positioned bermuda high. hence, the blocking pattern akin to what we have experienced since april. the continuing exceptional drought in sfla and the keys is a reflection of that blocking pattern in additional to other factors. it remains to be seen whether the positive pdo does become fact and secondly, if the teleconnection with the nao develops as suggested above. a potentially very interesting season!....rich

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It looks like the big high that has been sitting over the deep SE for the last few weeks is going to start its drift to the east over the next week. If it plants itself east of Florida, but not far enough away, then any cape verde system coming along can ride its southern periphery either into FL or into the gulf.
if it backs up again during the heart of the season, Florida will be spared, but beware to the northern and western gulf.

[MGC]

Yea, us on the gulf coast don't want to see that ridge too far east and prevent recurving up the east coast.....in 1980, that monster death ridge did drive Hurricane Allen into Mexico...so, despite the hot dry weather, a death ridge over you during the heart of hurricane season does have some benefit.....MGC

[chaser1]

as a fellow conch, i have a vested interest in an extended blocking pattern over central florida and anything tropical approaching florida south of 25degN. i seem to remember a posting, earlier this year, suggesting that we are entering the positive phase of the PDO, the pacific decadal oscillation. it was suggested that a +pdo tends to be associated with a + nao. a +nao, in turn, portends a stronger, more westwardly positioned bermuda high. hence, the blocking pattern akin to what we have experienced since april. the continuing exceptional drought in sfla and the keys is a reflection of that blocking pattern in additional to other factors. it remains to be seen whether the positive pdo does become fact and secondly, if the teleconnection with the nao develops as suggested above. a potentially very interesting season!....rich

[Frank2]

The high is about to be bumped east as a trough moves over Florida, so not sure if it's a pattern but wxman57 (Pro Met) mentioned that it might be a sign of trouble - we'll see what happens, but my own feeling is that this year might be more problematic than the past few...

Frank

[dwsqos2]

yes, front after front blasting off the east coast. early end to the season? oh well.

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[Janie2006]

The high is about to be bumped east as a trough moves over Florida, so not sure if it's a pattern but wxman57 (Pro Met) mentioned that it might be a sign of trouble - we'll see what happens, but my own feeling is that this year might be more problematic than the past few...

Frank

See, that's what concerns me. I certainly wouldn't object to tropical moisture providing beneficial rain, but my "instinct" (whatever that might be) tells me that Death Ridge isn't going to be quite so deadly for blocking hurricanes later on down the road...I'd much rather have had this pattern in July and August as opposed to May and June, but that's the way it goes.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

with the positive mjo in July, we may get som eearly season action that normally we may not see. the waters are plenty warm enough, so lets hope that shear and sal remain high until the mjo moves on.