BoB: BOB02 - Depression

[Extratropical94]

I'm wondering why no one came up with a thread on this.
It has been hanging around on the NRL page for quite long now.

Located at 20.2 N and 89.6 E, a little bit southwest of the Ganges delta.
Infrared image:

[supercane]

For me at least, a little too close to land for a high chance of significant development. I don't want a repeat of the time sink that was 98A/TC 1A again, where we watched it for days and days without much of anything.

JTWC's update:
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151009Z SSMI PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
OVER LAND THAT IS REMINISCENT OF BANDING AND SHALLOWER CONVECTION
OVER WATER THAT APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS OVER LAND TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Earlier ASCAT shows clear circulation, although strongest winds from SW quite removed from the circulation (latest ASCAT swath missed it):


No Dvorak classifications available from IMD, KNES, or PGTW.

Finally, IMD's take from earlier gives this no specific mention:
WTIN20 DEMS 140624
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 14-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -
BROKEN INTENSE TO V ERY CONVECTION OVER REST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN
LATITUDE 12.5N TO 21.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 90.0E (.) BROKEN LOW/
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INETNSE CONVECTION OVER
ANDAMAN SEA GULF OF MARTABAN REST BAY OF BENGAL ARAKAN COAST (. )
ARABIAN SEA: -
BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0N TO 18.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 68.5E (.) SCATTERED
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER REST EAST AND SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA (.)
RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 24.0ON OVER INDIAN REGION=

[supercane]

First satellite bulletin from SSD out:
TXIO22 KNES 152144
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99B)
B. 15/2130Z
C. 20.8N
D. 88.6E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN
30 NM (56 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/1927Z 20.7N 88.8E AMSRE

...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

System may have made landfall per most recent satellite bulletin from SSD:
TXIO22 KNES 160318
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99B)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 21.7N
D. 88.7E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLC IS ON COASTLINE BASED OFF OF 15/0230Z IMAGE..
CONVECTION WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
= 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 50 NM (93 KM).
NIL
...KIBLER



Heavy rain visible on this radar image from Kolkata:

[supercane]

IMD updates this into a depression, but states the center is close to shore with landfall expected within 9 hours:
WTIN20 DEMS 160630
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 16 JUNE, 2011 BASED
ON 0300 UTC OF 16 JUNE, 2011 (.)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL
OFF WEST BENGAL - BANGLADESH COAST AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 16TH JUNE 2011, NEAR LAT. 21.50 N AND LONG. 89.00 E,
ABOUT 100 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLAND(42903), 150 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA(42809) AND 150 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
KHEPUPARA(41984) OF BANGLADESH. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST,
ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF SAGAR ISLAND AROUND 1500 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 16TH JUNE, 2011.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO
BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON SURGE. THE STATE OF THE SEA
IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 987 HPA. KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH) REPORTED
LOWEST MSLP OF 987.0 HPA WITH SURFACE WIND OF 130/15 KNOTS AT
0300 UTC OF 16TH JUNE 2011.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION
DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (LOWEST CTT
MINUS 80DEG C) LIES OVER BAY OF BENGALTO THE NORTH OF LAT 16.0N.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 230N. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO
FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 300-320 C OVER THE REGION.
THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HOURS
FAVOURING INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS
THAN 60 KJ/CM2 OVER THE REGION WHICH DOES NOT FAVOUR
INTENSIFICATION.AS THE SYSTEM IS VEY CLOSE TO COAS, IT IS INTERACTING
WITH LAND SURFACE AND HENCE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE MJO IS LYING IN PHASE 5, BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE (<1),
ACCORDING TO BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL FORECASTS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT 2 DAYS. IT MAY BE
FAVOURABLE FOR AMPLIFICATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS CONSENSUS BY
THE NWP MODELS FOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SAME
INTENSIFY AND MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HRS.=


On the other hand, latest JTWC satellite bulletin has the center already overland.
TPIO10 PGTW 160609
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99B (E OF KOLKATA)
B. 16/0530Z
C. 22.4N
D. 89.9E
E. THREE/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[supercane]

This thing won't go away. JTWC just issued TCFA despite inland location:
WTIO21 PGTW 161900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 22.2N 89.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 161800Z INDI-
CATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 89.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
89.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION PULSING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE. THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE UNDER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST
WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF THE CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE WEST. A
151450Z AMSU PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHWEST. RADAR
FROM KOLKATA, INDIA SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER JUST INLAND
OF THE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RIGHT AT THE COAST AND OVER WATER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT IF IT WERE TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER IT WOULD BE
SUBJECTED TO HOSTILE AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30KTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171900Z.
//
NNNN



This was issued just an hour after upgrading it to a medium probability of development in their daily update:
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
89.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF
KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PULSING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE. THE CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE UNDER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF THE CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE WEST. A 161139Z SSMIS
PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION JUST OFF THE COAST OVER WATER WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER LAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. RADAR
FROM KOLKATA, INDIA SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER LAND
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
JUST OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT IF IT WERE TO MOVE BACK
OVER WATER IT WOULD BE SUBJECTED TO HOSTILE AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30KTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Latest PGTW Dvorak T2.0/2.0:
TPIO10 PGTW 161829
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99B (SE OF KOLKATA)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 21.8N
D. 88.2E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.0/2.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YILEDS .30 WRAP, RESULTING
IN 1.5DT. PT CAME OUT TO 2.0. PT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH



Earlier IMD statement had this as a deep depression:
WTIN20 DEMS 161500
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC
OF 16 JUNE, 2011 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 16 JUNE, 2011 (.)
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL OFF WEST BENGAL -
BANGLADESH COAST MOVED NORTHWARD, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
AND CROSSED WEST BENGAL COAST NEAR ABOUT 100 KM EAST OF SAGAR ISLAND
BETWEEN 1100-1200 UTC. THE DEEP DEPRESSION LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 16TH JUNE 2011, OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND
ADJOINING BANGLADESH NEAR LAT. 22.00 N AND LONG. 89.00 E, ABOUT
100 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLAND (42903), 100 KM SOUTHEAST OF
KOLKATA (42807) AND 130 KM WEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) OF BANGLADESH.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 25 KNOTS ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST. THE
STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL-
BANGLADESH COAST. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (LOWEST CTT
MINUS 76 DEG C) LIES OVER BAY OF BENGALTO THE NORTH OF 16.0 DEG.
N WEST OF LONG 90.5 DEG E.
THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HOURS
FAVOURING INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM LIES
TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG
25 DEG N. AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND SURFACE AND EXPEXTED TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS.THERE IS CONSENSUS BY MANY NWP MODELS FOR ABOVE
FORECAST.
TOO: 162030 HRS IST=

Latest Kolkata radar, clear banding, not a lot of rain onshore:

[supercane]

Latest statement from IMD:
BOB 02/2011/05 Dated: 17.06.2011

Sub: Deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.

The deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lay centred over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 17 June 2011, near lat. 22.50 N and long. 89.00 E, about 130 km northeast of Sagar Island, 80 km east of Kolkata and 150 km west-northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 24 hours.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over north Orissa, Jharkhand and coastal districts of West Bengal during next 48 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would also occur over north Orissa during the same period. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Orissa, Chhattisgarh and remaining parts of Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would occur along and off north Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts during next 12 hours.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 17th June, 2011.



JTWC's latest satellite bulletin actually has this at T2.5/2.5:
TPIO10 PGTW 170029
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99B (SE OF KOLKATA)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 22.2N
D. 88.7E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/21HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .40 WRAP, WHICH
RESULTS IN 2.5 DT. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

Latest Kolkata radar:

[supercane]

WTIN20 DEMS 170620
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT
0600 UTC OF 17TH JUNE,2011 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 17TH JUNE,
2011.
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND
ADJOINING BANGLADESH REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND
LAY CENTRED OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING
BANGLADESH AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,THE 17TH JUNE,2011 NEAR
LAT.22.5 DEG N AND LONG.89.0 DEG E ABOUT 130 KM NORTHEAST
OF SAGAR ISLAND(42903),80 KM EAST OF KOLKATA (42807) AND
150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA(41984) OF BANGLADESH.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 25-30 KNOTS ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF
WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 984 HPA.ASSOCIATED BROKEN MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
(LOWEST CTT MINUS 70 DEG C ) LIES OVER BAY OF BENGAL TO THE
NORTH OF 19.0 DEG.N WEST OF LONG.92.5 DEG.E.=



BOB 02/2011/06 Dated: 17.06.2011

Time of issue: 1030 hours IST

Sub: Deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.

The deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lay centred over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 17 June 2011, near lat. 22.50 N and long. 89.00 E, about 130 km northeast of Sagar Island, 80 km east of Kolkata and 150 km west-northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over north Orissa and Jharkhand during next 48 hours and over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would also occur over north Orissa during the same period. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during next 48 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would occur over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining districts of north Orissa during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts during next 12 hours.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 17th June, 2011.



TPIO10 PGTW 170607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99B (SE OF KOLKATA)
B. 17/0530Z
C. 22.5N
D. 87.9E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.0/2.5 STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDED A 2.0 DT. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. DVORAK VALUES MAY BE UNREP DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[KWT]

ECM did a good call in the LP strengthening as it went inland somewhat. Interesting!

[Grifforzer]

BOB 02/2011/07 Dated: 17.06.2011

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST



Sub: Deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal.



The deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh moved slightly northwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 17 June 2011, over Gangetic West Bengal near lat. 22.80 N and long. 88.50 E, about 30 km northeast of Kolkata. The system is likely to move northwestwards for some time and then west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.


Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over north Orissa and Jharkhand during next 48 hours and over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would also occur over north Orissa during the same period. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during next 48 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would occur over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining districts of north Orissa during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts during next 12 hours.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 17th June, 2011.

[dexterlabio]

One interesting system, consolidating further inland?

[Chacor]

The marshes of southern Bangladesh and northeastern India have always been conducive to monsoon depression formation, so this isn't really that surprising.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system inland

[senorpepr]

WTIN20 DEMS 190730

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-06-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
19 JUNE, 2011 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 19 JUNE, 2011 (.)

THE YESTERDAY'S DEEP DEPRESSION MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND
WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 19 JUNE
2011 NEAR LAT.23.5 DEG N AND LONG.85.5 DEG E, ABOUT 50 KM
SOUTHEAST OF RANCHI.THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
988 HPA.
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA.=

[HURAKAN]

the low pressure still looks very well-organized, impressive

[HURAKAN]

The low remains very impressive

[Chacor]

WTIN20 DEMS 201000

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 20-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.

DEPRESSION OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING CHHATTISGARH.

THE DEPRESSION OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
CHHATTISGARH MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0830 HOURS IST OF TODAY, 20 JUNE 2011 OVER CHHATTISGARH
AND ADJOINING AREA OF JHARKHAND ABOUT 50 KM NORTHEAST OF
AMBIKAPUR IN CHHATTISGARH. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS AT MOST PLACES
WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS AT A FEW PLACES WOULD OCCUR OVER
CHHATTISGARH AND EAST MADHYA PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS AT MANY PLACES WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY
HEAVY FALL WOULD OCCUR OVER JHARKHAND, NORTH ORISSA, BIHAR AND
EAST UTTAR PRADESH DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS AT MANY PLACES WITH ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS
WOULD OCCUR WEST MADHYA PRADESH AND VIDARBHA DURING NEXT
48 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 24.0ON OVER INDIAN REGION.=

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the ECM ended up being spot on with it actually strengthening a little inland.

[P.K.]

This may have gone from the NRL but it is still actually a Depression after all this time inland in the centre of India!

BOB 02/2011/29 Dated: 22.06.2011

Time of issue: 1830 hours IST


Sub: Depression over Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh.


The depression over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh moved further westwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 22 June 2011 over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh & south Uttar Pradesh, about 50 km northeast of Sagar and 180 km east-southeast of Guna in Madhya Pradesh. The system would move westwards and weaken gradually.


Under its influence, rain/thundershowers would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over west Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours and isolated heavy falls over east Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours.


Rainfall would occur at many places with isolated heavy falls over east Rajasthan during next 48 hours.


The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST, the 23rd June, 2011.

[plasticup]

Yeah looks like the ECM ended up being spot on with it actually strengthening a little inland.

Not that surprising. Depressions can strengthen over the Florida everglades or the Yucatan peninsula because of the dense moisture on the ground.