
Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)
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- Rgv20
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Even the 18zNam jumping on the bandwagon.


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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
BigB0882 wrote:The only thing I am sure of is that if anything does form, it will not hit anywhere near the TX/MX border. I never know where a storm will hit far out but I do know it wont hit where initially predicted.![]()
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!
Hurricane Dean's Cat 5 landfall was predicted within 50 miles more than a week in advance.
The models get better every year. I wouldn't bet the farm on a 168 hour GFS run, but I wouldn't dismiss it either. These things verify, to some degree, more often than we give them credit for. My money is on something rumbling through the Gulf next week. It may not be a big ol' 'cane like GFS says, but I'm confident that there will be something interesting.
edit: this wave develops in all global models: GFS, CMC, EURO, NOGAPS, and HWRF. No outliers.
Last edited by plasticup on Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Saw some LL rotation right before sunset over eastern MX and now covered in convection. Wonder what happens if it moves offshore?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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- lrak
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance

I was wondering the same thing.
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AKA karl
Also
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Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance


Yeah another 75 mies east and those models might have been correct, but at least we are getting some rain

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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- Janie2006
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
It was rather interesting to note the MCS move off the Texas coast earlier today and see what (if anything) might happen. There were some interesting pressure drops and low-level convergence, but nothing to write home about. Ah, well. At least people got some good rain.
Let the model roulette wheel continue its spin.
Let the model roulette wheel continue its spin.
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
Yes indeed tailgater, at least we are getting rain. Have not been able to work near as much this month due to the drought, now can't work due to the rain. Just can't win against Mother Nature. The grass in my backyard has literally grown a couple of inches this week due to rain. Last week the back half of my backyard that the water sprinklers can't reach was brown now its thick and green. Next week is going to be back to normal with our friendly ridge setting up over us once again. 
Tailgater, little off topic but where in st amant do you live? I have a couple of employees that live out in your area along with a property I have been clearing out this month off 22 near fisherman 1 stop

Tailgater, little off topic but where in st amant do you live? I have a couple of employees that live out in your area along with a property I have been clearing out this month off 22 near fisherman 1 stop
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
Kinda makes you wonder if watering (the grass that is) isn't really worth it huh?
Amazing how much everything has greened up just by this evening from the past two days of rain. Some nice convection going over the western gulf tonight. It will be interesting to see what this area looks like tomorrow with most of the rain focusing offshore.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
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- Annie Oakley
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
Agreed PT. By the time my yard dries out enough I will have to mow over it three or four times to clean it up so it looks nice. I'm watching the area in the gulf, not for any tropical development, but for more rain coming up this way. Our local OCM thinks it will stay offshore but watching it on radar the rain shield sure looks to be moving NE up the texas coast in our direction. I'm guessing it will die out overnight as it gets close to us during the early morning hours though.
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- Rgv20
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0zGFS a tad further south than earlier runs.
Forecast for 06/28 Tuesday morning.

Forecast for 06/28 Tuesday morning.

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- Rgv20
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Looking at the all available guidance it looks like Sunday to Monday will be the time frame for a tropical disturbance to start taking shape.
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- Rgv20
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0zCMC at 144hrs has the system in the Southern Gulf.

Its going to be interesting what the 0zEuro shows later tonight.

Its going to be interesting what the 0zEuro shows later tonight.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
Hmmm...the crazy Uncle Canadian goes crazy....
Ivanhater wrote:Another view of the Canadian
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
The 00Z Euro Operational and Ensembles have a bit better organized system that is a slightly further N.
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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
From NHC:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011
GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MENTIONED BELOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IN THE SW GULF.
Michael, I think this thread will be locked in a few days.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011
GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MENTIONED BELOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IN THE SW GULF.
Michael, I think this thread will be locked in a few days.

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Re: Possible Gulf Disturbance
The southern gulf doesn't have a particularly high heat potential at the moment. I can't see something blowing up like the Canadian model suggests.


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