Risk of Severe Storms 6/21 & 6/22

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Dave
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Risk of Severe Storms 6/21 & 6/22

#1 Postby Dave » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:21 pm

Bringing up a new thread to cover the slight area risks.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...NRN AND CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212156Z - 212330Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR IS AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPEST ACROSS THAT SAME REGION...
BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS BECOME LARGE OVER MUCH OF OHIO VALLEY/
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.

A DEVELOPING COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS TO OVER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS INDIANA...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME
. OTHERWISE...IN A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ILLINOIS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/21/2011


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
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#2 Postby Dave » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:25 pm

Current Watches

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH[/color FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI


EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMPAIGN
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THE VERY MOIST/MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH
HAS BECOME UNCAPPED. WITH 40KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH ENHANCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NEWD FROM SRN MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS MO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/WIND
DAMAGE...BUT SHEAR SUPPORTS TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
DEVELOPS.

=====================================
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN


EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE WATCH AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA MOVES SLOWLY E. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY SLOWLY MOVES E ACROSS
THE WATCH.

===============================

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN


EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HOUGHTON LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...

DISCUSSION...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE COUPLED WITH AN
E/W WARM FRONT CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOS. INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE WRN
MI AND SHOULD EXPAND N AND E THRU THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

=========================

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...WW 533...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY IN
COVERAGE/STRENGTH OVER CNTRL AND SW TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE AS
HEATING FURTHER ERODES CINH ON NRN FRINGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS
LEFT UN-OVERTURNED BY LAST NIGHTS MCS. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE GENERALLY SW FROM EXISTING STORM CLUSTER SW OF SHV.
DEGREE AND DISTRIBUTION OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR WITH SIZABLE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE CNTRL AND W
TX STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COUPLE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT
PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR THREAT.
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Re: Risk of Severe Storms 6/21 & 6/22

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:04 pm

Never seen this wording before. A "Severe Thunderstorm Emergency" equivalent?

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ILC037-043-063-089-093-099-103-197-220130-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110622T0130Z/
KANE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE
IL-
LEE IL-
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LEE...WESTERN DUPAGE...SOUTHERN DE KALB...GRUNDY...NORTHWESTERN
WILL...NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE...KENDALL AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...TORNADO LIKE WIND
DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN SPOTS WITH THIS DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS...


AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING
WINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DE KALB AND PLANO AROUND 755 PM CDT.
CORTLAND...YORKVILLE...MORRIS AND MAZON AROUND 800 PM CDT.
SYCAMORE...SUGAR GROVE AND MAPLE PARK AROUND 805 PM CDT.
ELBURN AROUND 810 PM CDT.
OSWEGO...NORTH AURORA...MONTGOMERY AND COAL CITY AROUND 815 PM CDT.
MINOOKA AROUND 820 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
LISBON...CARBON HILL...BOULDER HILL...BURLINGTON...SOUTH ELGIN...
CRYSTAL LAWNS AND CREST HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED
. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4198 8824 4176 8809 4138 8811 4111 8857
4124 8877 4142 8872 4163 8882 4174 8904
4213 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 235DEG 39KT 4183 8879 4173 8863
4153 8856 4121 8857
WIND...HAIL 100MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI
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#4 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:51 am

Reports are that Churchill Downs got hit.
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