Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Pearl River]

Fro New Orleans this morning, for the long term:

GFS...DGEX AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TRAVELING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW SUCH A SOLUTION. THE GFS BULKS THE
PW VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK IF THE
GULF LOW DOES DEVELOP...SPELLING ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
REGIME BEFORE THE CLOSE OF JUNE. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED FROM RUN-TO-RUN TO ENSURE IT IS NOT AN ARTIFACT OF
BOUNDARY CONDITION MODELING. DESPITE ANY DEVELOPMENT...THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR DECENT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE AND DEPTH OF TROPICAL FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.


We'll take the extra rain.

[lrak]

I see that area of rotation I saw last evening over NE MX has evidently moved offshore. Might need to watch that area.

I know it looks tropical now to me.

Corpus has an East/NE wind along the coast and it feels tropical for sure.

[Portastorm]

Fro New Orleans this morning, for the long term:

GFS...DGEX AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE LOCKING ONTO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TRAVELING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW SUCH A SOLUTION. THE GFS BULKS THE
PW VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK IF THE
GULF LOW DOES DEVELOP...SPELLING ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
REGIME BEFORE THE CLOSE OF JUNE. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED FROM RUN-TO-RUN TO ENSURE IT IS NOT AN ARTIFACT OF
BOUNDARY CONDITION MODELING. DESPITE ANY DEVELOPMENT...THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR DECENT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE AND DEPTH OF TROPICAL FLOW INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.


We'll take the extra rain.

This raises a question in my mind ... what is boundary condition modeling?

[Javlin]

Well it looks like something got deposited in the BOC as some leftovers right off the Mex coast


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise) as far as the model projections for next week, but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on MIMIC TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf". But it does bother me that the models haven't shown any signs of dropping the development just 4 days before the predicted development on Monday. If the 12Z runs don't show any signs of backing off, then I will be a bit more concerned that they may be on to something. At this point, I'm thinking 20-30% chance of development early next week. Still well below 50-50, but chances are increasing.

[tailgater]

Pressures are up along the western GOM from the last couple of days. Probably just midlevel features riding up the trough.
But moisture is up also

[Ivanhater]

Development still looks on track. The thing I would look at for trends on the models would be the strength of the upper ridge over the Gulf. If it trends stronger then development could lessen due to less time over water. Latest GFS stalls over the BOC and lifts NW as the ridge weakens some.....sounds like Alex all over again.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't care if it develops or now, we need more rain!

[Sanibel]

TWC says the wave entering the Caribbean might spark a system in the Gulf next week.

[Ivanhater]

HPC morning disco

AT LOWER LATITUDES THE CANADIAN IS THE
STRONGEST/FARTHEST NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN APPEARS
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATED DEPICTION STILL
MAKES SENSE PER THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING...WHICH BRINGS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is rolling in...

By 72 hours the low is taking shape and a weakness in the Gulf that should allow it to gain latitude in the short term as it strengthens

[Ivanhater]

90 hours. Ridge over the Gulf is stronger and the low is pretty far south. Let's see how far south it crosses in the Gulf and how the ridge looks.

[Ivanhater]

114 hours...entering the Gulf



Weakness in the ridge

[Ivanhater]

150 hours...crawling in the BOC and wrapping up

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be a good weakness in the ridge over the west gulf, wonder if it will gain more latitude?

[Ivanhater]

180 hours

[KFDM Meteorologist]

South Texas/Mexico

[Ivanhater]

South Texas/Mexico

Looks like Alex all over again

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Sure Does

[Stormcenter]

Lots and lots of beneficial rains with this "possible" system.

The development time table does seem slow. I'm not sure I buy into that.