Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Rgv20]

The past few runs the ECMWF has been trending more northerly with the BOC feature.

12zECMWF with a 1001mb low.

[NDG]

The past few runs the ECMWF has been trending more northerly with the BOC feature.

12zECMWF with a 1001mb low.

Yeah, trends are looking good for our friends in S TX, look how now the euro has the ridge move northward creating a weakness for this possible system move a little more north before moving ashore in MX. Chances of moisture moving in to S TX are looking better, according to the euro & CMC.

[stormreader]

Convection has migrated quite a bit further north today. Heavy storms now in the Northwestern Carribean and along the Yucatan Penninsula.

[cycloneye]

From HPC:

FOR INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC RESULTED IN A FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIMITED...WITH
THE IMPULSE ULTIMATELY CIRCULATING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[Rgv20]

Rain chances for my area are looking better and better with each new model run. 12z runs have the rain ever so close to deep south texas.

The following are rainfall totals for the next 5 days.

12zGFS


12zCMC


12zNAM


And the 12zECMWF has rainfall ranging from 1.50 to 3 inches for my area

[piggy]

excerpt form:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
.
.
.
CONCERNING THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...NEARLY ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM
AND REFLECT A WEAK CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM JUST 12 HOURS AGO WHEN ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OR NOT...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA OTHER THAN SOME MINOR IMPLICATIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
.
.
.

[Ptarmigan]

Rain chances for my area are looking better and better with each new model run. 12z runs have the rain ever so close to deep south texas.

The following are rainfall totals for the next 5 days.

12zGFS
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 120hrs.gif

12zCMC
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 120hrs.gif

12zNAM
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 084hrs.gif

And the 12zECMWF has rainfall ranging from 1.50 to 3 inches for my area

Lucky you. Where did you get those maps from?

[Dean4Storms]

At best a moderate Tropical Storm into the Tampico, MX area. Hopefully some moisture makes it up to south TX.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm hearing that best vorticity is further north near Cozumel, this could make the eventual landfall further north being that the models are initiating the vorticity down near Belize.

[Rgv20]

Lucky you. Where did you get those maps from?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
I found that site very useful.

[srainhoutx]

Lucky you. Where did you get those maps from?

They are from Allan Huffman's site...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[Rgv20]

Yeah Dean it looks like it wants to consolidate itself further north than where the best 850mb vorticity is.

[South Texas Storms]

So you guys are saying that the potential track of this system could continue to shift more north on the models because of a possible center reformation? Also, is there any chance that San Antonio could get a few rainbands from this?

[Rainband]

So you guys are saying that the potential track of this system could continue to shift more north on the models because of a possible center reformation? Also, is there any chance that San Antonio could get a few rainbands from this?

Sorry I am busy all week LOL. Seriously watch the high thats the key I am hopeful yall get some rain tho

[Dean4Storms]

So you guys are saying that the potential track of this system could continue to shift more north on the models because of a possible center reformation? Also, is there any chance that San Antonio could get a few rainbands from this?

Models did shift a bit north today with majority taking a TC into Tampico. Any further northward and you never know about SA seeing some rain bands, will depend on how large the system gets and eventual track.

[Rainband]

interesting spin near 93/23 not a dreaded ull

[cyclogenesis]

June 26, 2011
this Sunday evening
624 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing this Sunday evening, June 26, on to my website that gives you an overview of MY analyses of the suspicious Gulf of Mexico weather due-in this week in the Bay of Campeche.


You can read my viewpoints at this weblink appearing below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/








-- cyclogenesis

[Rgv20]

Its interesting to see the forecast 500mb anomaly and look back and see Hurricane Alex landfall 500mb anomaly.

12zGFS Ensembles forecast for Thursday morning.


12zECMWF Ensembles forecast for Thursday morning.


And now this is the 500mb anomaly for 6/30/2010 and 07/01/2011.

[Rgv20]

So you guys are saying that the potential track of this system could continue to shift more north on the models because of a possible center reformation? Also, is there any chance that San Antonio could get a few rainbands from this?

I highly doubt that San Antonio will get any rain from this...maybe some daytime thunderstorms for late in the week. As far as track for this potential system I say it wont pass 24n

[NDG]

I'm hearing that best vorticity is further north near Cozumel, this could make the eventual landfall further north being that the models are initiating the vorticity down near Belize.

But the lowest surface pressures are found further south & west near Ciudad del Carmen in the BOC coast where 1005mb pressures are found while Cozumel's pressure is 1010mb.