Upcoing week - June 20-26

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

This was, ahem, MUCH better. This was admittedly a very easy prediction to call, but after the week before with Invest 94L, I’ll take a perfect call any way I get it. It was a simple prediction for no development, due to atmospheric conditions being too hostile for anything to get going, including strong shear and an unfavorable MJO. Indeed, nothing happened that deviated from this prediction, not even any Invests, so my grade for this past week is an A.

I feel like I can finally move forward now that I’m on the board this year with a good grade! With increased confidence (even from an easy week), let’s do another one.

Current situation and models

OK, the atmosphere in the tropics shows some activity. That would be in the form of a tropical wave about to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, no models show this developing until it reaches most likely the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is a big “if” at this point. For one thing, this supposed development might be on about the 28th. For another, that would put any development beyond this upcoming week. We’ll still take a look at this possibility, but if June 28 is the day, then that’s for next week.

This being considered, conditions still look hostile in the Atlantic for anything to really develop into anything significant. Shear is still rampant further north, and the MJO is still not favorable, though dry air is below normal. However, there do not appear to be any other suspect areas for development this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed in this period of June 20-26:

An unnamed tropical storm in 1960
Candy in 1968
A subtropical storm in 1974
Bonnie in 1986
Allison in 1989
Alex in 2010

That’s six new developments in the satellite era, or about one every ten years. Only Bonnie and Alex became hurricanes, with Alex doing so later on into next week. Candy did come close, with winds reaching 70 mph. However, most of the storms were relatively short lived, with the exception of Brenda and Alex. Interestingly, all of these storms except for Alex developed in the Gulf of Mexico. As we all know, Alex instead developed in the western Caribbean last year, and intensified rather quickly before hitting Belize on June 26 with 65-mph maximum sustained winds.

Also interesting is that specifically in the Gulf of Mexico, four of these storms developed and hit Texas: the 1960 storm, Candy, Bonnie (which was a hurricane in fact), and Allison. Even Alex eventually reached that same area a week later, though it hit south of the border.

Storms still active coming into this new week include Brenda in 1968, Agnes in 1972, and Ana in 1979. In fact, Brenda and Ana were really only just getting going. Agnes, meanwhile, was in the process of deluging the northeast, particularly Pennsylvania, before dissipating late in the week. Brenda did become a hurricane, but never hit land on its way out to sea. Ana never really off the ground as it headed toward the Windward Islands, only providing some light winds and passing showers.

So what does this all tell us?

Tropical Storm Ana does tell us that a development in the location of our current tropical wave is definitely possible, though still unlikely. The more likely area is where models are suggesting for development: the western Gulf of Mexico. A few storms that have gotten their acts together there have also become surprisingly strong; two even became hurricanes there. This means that the whole story of a Gulf of Mexico storm possibly heading towards Texas has some merit and should be considered if it comes around.

The Prediction

My one problem with the Gulf of Mexico situation is that it’s a very long ways away, if it happens. One date I’m consistently seeing when it could happen by models is June 28, give or take maybe a day, and this week ends on June 26. While timing of storms developing has been a major issue of mine before, I’m still fairly confident on making this prediction: I predict no tropical cyclone development this upcoming week in the western Gulf of Mexico or anywhere in the Atlantic. Confidence is 80%.

Finally, while I don’t make predictions for the eastern Pacific because I still have much to learn there, the real story will be there as Tropical Storm Beatriz. This storm should become a hurricane, and could strike Mexico on Tuesday. If I was really predicting, I'd go with probably a glancing blow as a C2 storm with winds of 100-105 mph. The closest approach would be near Manzanillo, staying just offshore, but bringing hurricane conditions and some localized flooding onshore with it.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Let's evaluate this past week now!

Last week I predicted no tropical cyclone development, but confidence was a slightly lower 80%. That was because of the possibility of a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that may try to get going, well, today, on Sunday, June 26. Still, I predicted no development (yet) due to models saying it wouldn’t be all the way there by the end of Sunday night. Indeed, this disturbance hasn’t quite even reached the Bay of Campeche just yet. While it is organizing, it hasn’t developed into anything yet either. Therefore, due to correctly calling for no tropical cyclone development, while still having an idea of what might come, this week’s prediction is another solid A until factoring in something else…

Yes, I did go for a little extra credit with Beatriz, honing on how strong it would be as it brushed Manzanillo. It did brush that city, but as a C1 storm with winds of about 85 mph, not a C2 with 100-105 mph winds like I thought. Overall, it was stronger than some predicted, but not quite in line with my extra-credit prediction. Therefore, the grade stays as an A for this past week.

Extended upcoming week for the Fourth of July coming up in just a few.

-Andrew92