Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[tailgater]

Maybe an Invest in the next 24 hrs.

[NDG]

Maybe an Invest in the next 24 hrs.

I agree, is already showing signs of organization without its vorticity fully out over water yet.

[jinftl]

Great analysis of this potential system on your website...i will definitely be checking back often for your analyses and forecasts as the season heats up.

-jeff

June 26, 2011
this Sunday evening
624 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing this Sunday evening, June 26, on to my website that gives you an overview of MY analyses of the suspicious Gulf of Mexico weather due-in this week in the Bay of Campeche.


You can read my viewpoints at this weblink appearing below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/








-- cyclogenesis

[cyclogenesis]

June 26, 2011
this Sunday night
1156 PM CDT



Gang ~~ Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of this tropical wave, getting ready to emerge in to the Southeastern Bay of Campeche, is a mess tonight! Just a disorganized mess, late this Sunday night, June 26!


This area of disturbed weather is a long ways from developing, and has an opportunity of about 3 - 4 days to do so. It is still possible to just have an area of low pressure that traverses the Bay of Campeche, undeveloped, owing to the complications of layered vorticity being displaced (shearing), lack of the low pressure area from developing a tight, inner-core that is devoid of convection.


Tonight, shear values in the area have INCREASED upwards to 20 to 30 kts from the West, near the Southern Mexico border. I'd call this moderate shearing conditions.


Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico along with a number of other Southern MX reporting stations have gone to bed for the night, but did report a 1005 mb pressure & North wind at 7 PM earlier this Sunday evening, June 26th. Campeche, MX had an 11 PM observation, with a higher pressure of 1009 mb & calm wind, along with a broken cloud deck at 4,000 ft.


Radar out of Mexico late this Sunday night, is showing an increase in light showers moving Southwestward on the Alvarado radar; meanwhile the Cancun radar was showing a Northwest motion of a light scattering of showers.


The elevated vorticity layers are displaced from one another between 850 & 500 mb, displaced Northeastward with height, also supporting more disarray in the disorganization of this tropical wave, interacting with the upper trough.


My gut feeling is that IF this tropical wave later-on down the road, is able to organize & develop in to a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, it won't do so, until LATE in the game, likely not until about 12 - 36 hours before crossing the coastline, as they so often do in this region. Past history has also shown us that in this area, when it does develop, it can often rapidly spin-up just immediately before crossing the coast, typically 12-hours prior. But as satellite suggests to me, it's going to be a while.


Just like the Government does, the first thing the tropics does, is it tests your patience!!




-- cyclogenesis

[HURAKAN]

convection has increased in the Gulf of Tehuantepec

[HURAKAN]

805 TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 25N89W TO 15N92W DRIFTING WNW AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW
MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF SRN MEXICO
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 88W-96W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85-88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN GULF FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS
WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[trave2]

CODE YELLOW 20%

[GCANE]

Surface obs suggest a surface low.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=archive/tropics/cent_amer&loopid=Central+America+Sat/Station+Plot

[tolakram]

Sat loop of the area: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[wxman57]

There's no surface low yet, just a weak wave axis. There is a small chance (agree with NHC's 20%) it could spin up into a TD or weak TS just as it moves ashore into Mexico on Wednesday. That's about it. Nothing happening now, though.

[lrak]

Where in Mexico would you peg this one wxman57?

[MGC]

Odds are long that this disturbance becomes a TC.....land interaction, strong UL winds are just a couple of factors going against development. 20% seems generous to me......MGC

[wxman57]

Where in Mexico would you peg this one wxman57?

I think that the models are handling its trajectory well - into MX near Tampico. But it's not a point source, it's an elongated wave. Good bit of moisture with it, could give you a chance of some showers Wed/Thu.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[lrak]

Oh thats great news wxman57, I hope a swell gets kicked up as well.

Thank you.

[wyq614]

Today temperatures of Bolivia descended significantly due to cold airmass, the intertropical flow will favor developments of tropical systems in North America, let's wait and see if it will be the one.

[wxman57]

One thing to take note of is that the models last week were quite wrong in predicting a ridge over the southwest Gulf today. There is clearly a trof axis across the area (aloft), resulting in moderate westerly wind shear. I'm thinking 20% may be generous for its chances, maybe 15% too generous. Certainly nothing there today and nothing imminent.

[tailgater]

Can we please get a Floater!
The cloud pattern is improving but it's a long ways from TD status winds are light except well back in the NW caribbean and pressures aren't falling much. Maybe as it's appoaching the Mexician coast, the coast line sometimes tight the circulation.

[TheBurn]

Oh thats great news wxman57, I hope a swell gets kicked up as well.

Swell on the way according to StormSurf...
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height

[wxman57]

Oh thats great news wxman57, I hope a swell gets kicked up as well.

Swell on the way according to StormSurf...
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height

That swell graphic is dependent upon the disturbance becoming a TS. It's using the NOGAPS WaveWatch 3 model. There is currently NO swell on the way. Winds across the south-central Gulf are only 10-15 kts from the east and southeast. Nothing to generate anything more than the typical background 2-3 ft swell yet.