Disturbed Weather in Carribbean

[Hurricane]

Associated with a westward moving tropical wave:


Storms popping up...

[Hurricane]

Check out the spin! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

The spin you see is an upper low, and the tropical wave is interacting with it.

[Macrocane]

LOL it's at least the third time in the day that you have to say that cycloneye! It surely looks interesting and sometimes ULL interacting with tropical waves can lead to the formation of a subtropical cyclone but special conditions need to be in place, and I think that this is not the case.

[floridasun78]

i wrote about this area last night too cycloneye told me same

[Steve H.]

Not to get off topic, but a more interesting area may be at about 12N/43W. Seems to be some rotation there.

[Steve H.]

The wave that was at 12/43 2 days ago is now appraching the Lesser Antilles and looking better this morning. I think this area may need to be watched for possible development a few days down the road. Some shear, but not overwhelming. Models are not showing anything with this area but I think it's worth watching. The Caribbean is the favorable area as we get into July

[wxman57]

The wave that was at 12/43 2 days ago is now appraching the Lesser Antilles and looking better this morning. I think this area may need to be watched for possible development a few days down the road. Some shear, but not overwhelming. Models are not showing anything with this area but I think it's worth watching. The Caribbean is the favorable area as we get into July

I agree - down the road, maybe next Thursday or Friday. Shear is currently 40-50 kts in its path for the next 5 days or so. Perhaps it'll drop off in the western Caribbean by this time next week.

[NDG]

Models show that this tropical wave will be positioned in the western Caribbean as early as late Sunday/Monday, it will start flaring up once again as it interacts with an upper level trough in the GOM.
Models want to build an UL high in the western Caribbean by next week, but you know the drill, past 3-5 days models do not do well with forecasting UL winds.
But dam, this tropical wave looks good this morning, but like mentioned above it has no model support to do anything while in the eastern Caribbean. I guess the low level jet in the central & eastern Caribbean will keep it from getting better organized.

[drezee]

The wave currently approaching the islands is not the wave this thread was begun with three days ago. That wave is long gone West.

[drezee]

The wave that was at 12/43 2 days ago is now appraching the Lesser Antilles and looking better this morning. I think this area may need to be watched for possible development a few days down the road. Some shear, but not overwhelming. Models are not showing anything with this area but I think it's worth watching. The Caribbean is the favorable area as we get into July

I agree - down the road, maybe next Thursday or Friday. Shear is currently 40-50 kts in its path for the next 5 days or so. Perhaps it'll drop off in the western Caribbean by this time next week.

It shows hints of reversed curvature. I would not say LLC, but inflow from Thunderstorms are backing the winds SSW from the looks on the visible.

[drezee]

good loop...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=14

[ronjon]

12Z GFS hinting at a weak low in the Yuc straits in 6 days from this feature. Would be in a prime development location at that time.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011063012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[South Texas Storms]

It doesn't look too bad on the satellite right now. Maybe this has a chance to become Bret.

[tailgater]

I'm not sure about which wave this thread is about?
The wave currently in the eastern Caribbean @ 62W-64W is showing a tiny twist west of Saint Lucia.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
Lots of shear over it and ahead of it, the ULL is backing off to the west, so it possible that shear will lessen.
Twist is also slightly visible on wide shot at the GHCC site.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a monsoon trough shaped by a TUTT on its west end.

[tailgater]

Flash Flood warnings for US Virgin Islands and Eastern Puerto Rico.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[tailgater]

I guess since it doesn't have much model support this one is getting ignored a little and climo wise it's early but shear is down a good bit south of Puerto Rico and there is a nice blow up at this time. Winds are strong out of the east.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks good right there. I wonder why it doesn't have any model support. Too much shear?

[Nimbus]

Probably climo would dictate no development till it reaches the western Caribbean. If the area of convection persists this thread may end up locked pretty soon though.