ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Dave]

[JonathanBelles]

At the level they are flying, 75% is the best guess for the flight level to surface conversion.

There was a chart last year or the year before for conversion factors. Do you or anyone else have that? I can never remember the conversion factors.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281740
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 12 20110628
173030 2125N 09316W 9084 00898 0069 +205 +142 079018 018 026 001 00
173100 2123N 09316W 9080 00903 0070 +200 +141 080016 017 026 000 00
173130 2121N 09315W 9080 00903 0070 +201 +142 075015 016 025 000 00
173200 2120N 09315W 9080 00901 0068 +205 +142 069013 015 025 000 03
173230 2118N 09315W 9080 00902 0068 +205 +147 064009 009 025 000 00
173300 2117N 09314W 9080 00900 0070 +200 +149 078009 010 026 000 00
173330 2115N 09314W 9078 00904 0069 +201 +146 083009 009 024 000 00
173400 2113N 09314W 9079 00903 0071 +197 +147 089010 010 023 000 00
173430 2112N 09314W 9084 00896 0070 +197 +144 093010 011 023 000 00
173500 2110N 09313W 9079 00902 0070 +195 +155 094009 009 024 000 00
173530 2109N 09313W 9081 00899 0070 +196 +148 092010 010 024 000 00
173600 2107N 09313W 9078 00903 0070 +194 +151 097009 009 025 000 00
173630 2106N 09312W 9080 00900 0069 +196 +148 105006 008 023 000 00
173700 2104N 09312W 9083 00897 0068 +200 +151 110004 005 021 000 00
173730 2102N 09312W 9078 00901 0069 +195 +152 110004 004 022 000 00
173800 2101N 09311W 9077 00903 0069 +197 +155 130003 003 023 001 03
173830 2059N 09311W 9078 00902 0068 +197 +152 133004 004 021 000 00
173900 2058N 09311W 9077 00903 0067 +198 +160 152004 005 022 000 03
173930 2056N 09311W 9086 00893 0067 +200 +150 144006 006 022 000 00
174000 2055N 09310W 9078 00900 0066 +201 +156 177004 004 021 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

At the level they are flying, 75% is the best guess for the flight level to surface conversion.

There was a chart last year or the year before for conversion factors. Do you or anyone else have that? I can never remember the conversion factors.

I don't have it anymore...died on last hd crash, maybe Crazy still does.

[lebron23]

CODE RED

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Dave]

[Florida1118]

Ah...first Code Red of the season.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Ah...first Code Red of the season.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

A more closer view.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281750
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 20110628
174030 2053N 09310W 9082 00897 0064 +204 +154 177003 004 022 000 03
174100 2052N 09310W 9081 00897 0066 +197 +156 210005 006 021 000 00
174130 2050N 09309W 9077 00900 0065 +200 +155 220008 009 022 000 00
174200 2048N 09309W 9080 00898 0064 +204 +155 233010 010 022 000 00
174230 2047N 09309W 9085 00894 0065 +202 +165 227009 010 022 000 00
174300 2045N 09309W 9077 00902 0067 +198 +159 232009 010 022 000 00
174330 2044N 09308W 9082 00898 0067 +200 +154 229011 011 023 000 00
174400 2042N 09308W 9080 00900 0067 +202 +156 224012 013 022 000 00
174430 2041N 09308W 9069 00913 0068 +200 +159 224012 014 024 000 00
174500 2039N 09307W 9078 00902 0068 +201 +162 229013 014 023 000 00
174530 2038N 09307W 9080 00902 0069 +200 +162 228013 013 022 000 00
174600 2036N 09307W 9080 00901 0070 +197 +158 225013 013 021 000 00
174630 2035N 09307W 9084 00899 0070 +198 +159 226012 012 022 000 00
174700 2033N 09306W 9193 00795 0070 +205 +160 233012 013 022 000 03
174730 2032N 09307W 9384 00608 0064 +214 +158 219009 010 /// /// 03
174800 2031N 09308W 9558 00442 0065 +224 +164 217008 008 025 000 00
174830 2031N 09310W 9682 00346 0073 +234 +173 223008 008 023 000 00
174900 2031N 09312W 9700 00328 0071 +235 +175 226008 008 023 000 00
174930 2031N 09313W 9700 00329 0071 +235 +182 224008 008 023 000 05
175000 2031N 09315W 9699 00331 0072 +235 +181 224007 007 022 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricane]

[Dave]

[AHS2011]

And the season officially begins today, once Arlene and or TD#1 forms.

[wxman57]

It is looking a bit better this afternoon. There does appear to be a broad, weak LLC forming, though I don't think it qualifies for TD strength as winds are rather light and convection weak and displaced to the east. Pretty good chance it'll qualify for TD status tomorrow before moving inland tomorrow night/Thursday morning.

[Hurricane]

It is looking a bit better this afternoon. There does appear to be a broad, weak LLC forming, though I don't think it qualifies for TD strength as winds are rather light and convection weak and displaced to the east. Pretty good chance it'll qualify for TD status tomorrow before moving inland tomorrow night/Thursday morning.

What is your percentage for Arlene forming from this?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281750
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 20110628
174030 2053N 09310W 9082 00897 0064 +204 +154 177003 004 022 000 03
174100 2052N 09310W 9081 00897 0066 +197 +156 210005 006 021 000 00
174130 2050N 09309W 9077 00900 0065 +200 +155 220008 009 022 000 00
174200 2048N 09309W 9080 00898 0064 +204 +155 233010 010 022 000 00
174230 2047N 09309W 9085 00894 0065 +202 +165 227009 010 022 000 00
174300 2045N 09309W 9077 00902 0067 +198 +159 232009 010 022 000 00
174330 2044N 09308W 9082 00898 0067 +200 +154 229011 011 023 000 00
174400 2042N 09308W 9080 00900 0067 +202 +156 224012 013 022 000 00
174430 2041N 09308W 9069 00913 0068 +200 +159 224012 014 024 000 00
174500 2039N 09307W 9078 00902 0068 +201 +162 229013 014 023 000 00
174530 2038N 09307W 9080 00902 0069 +200 +162 228013 013 022 000 00
174600 2036N 09307W 9080 00901 0070 +197 +158 225013 013 021 000 00
174630 2035N 09307W 9084 00899 0070 +198 +159 226012 012 022 000 00
174700 2033N 09306W 9193 00795 0070 +205 +160 233012 013 022 000 03
174730 2032N 09307W 9384 00608 0064 +214 +158 219009 010 /// /// 03
174800 2031N 09308W 9558 00442 0065 +224 +164 217008 008 025 000 00
174830 2031N 09310W 9682 00346 0073 +234 +173 223008 008 023 000 00
174900 2031N 09312W 9700 00328 0071 +235 +175 226008 008 023 000 00
174930 2031N 09313W 9700 00329 0071 +235 +182 224008 008 023 000 05
175000 2031N 09315W 9699 00331 0072 +235 +181 224007 007 022 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

There is the landfall of 12z HWRF at 41.9kts. It takes longer in this model to make landfall.

[Dave]

[JonathanBelles]

Just a reminder, we are watching all updates as they come in at the S2K chatroom. You can find the chatroom by going to mibbit.com --> Launch App (mid way down the page in blue). Connect to the Esper (Webirc) server, the nick is whatever you choose, and the channel is #storm2k.

Can't wait to see everyone!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281800
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 14 20110628
175030 2030N 09316W 9700 00329 0072 +235 +188 224006 007 022 000 00
175100 2030N 09318W 9700 00328 0072 +235 +184 231006 006 023 000 00
175130 2030N 09320W 9696 00332 0072 +235 +188 234006 006 023 000 00
175200 2030N 09321W 9700 00329 0071 +235 +190 233005 006 021 000 00
175230 2030N 09323W 9699 00329 0071 +235 +188 247005 005 022 000 00
175300 2029N 09324W 9700 00328 0071 +235 +189 252005 005 022 000 00
175330 2029N 09326W 9699 00330 0071 +235 +191 251005 005 022 000 00
175400 2029N 09328W 9700 00328 0071 +235 +194 262004 005 021 000 00
175430 2029N 09329W 9700 00329 0071 +235 +190 267004 005 021 000 00
175500 2028N 09331W 9698 00330 0071 +235 +190 267005 005 022 000 03
175530 2028N 09332W 9701 00328 0071 +235 +193 269005 005 021 000 00
175600 2028N 09334W 9699 00331 0072 +235 +194 276004 004 022 000 03
175630 2028N 09336W 9699 00331 0072 +235 +196 273005 005 022 000 00
175700 2027N 09337W 9702 00328 0071 +236 +196 275004 004 023 001 00
175730 2027N 09339W 9700 00328 0071 +235 +196 270003 003 022 000 00
175800 2027N 09340W 9700 00329 0071 +236 +194 278002 002 022 000 00
175830 2027N 09342W 9699 00331 0072 +235 +194 283003 004 022 000 00
175900 2026N 09344W 9696 00333 0072 +235 +197 290003 003 023 000 00
175930 2026N 09345W 9701 00328 0072 +233 +198 274002 003 022 000 00
180000 2026N 09347W 9705 00324 0072 +230 +199 260003 003 020 000 03
$$
;

[NDG]

IMO, I believe that before the recon heads out later this afternoon they will go ahead in making a TD, with a pressure of 1006mb, west wind and at least TD force winds to the north of the low pressure center, they should upgrade it.
They have not sampled yet the eastern half of the system where the strongest convection is located.