ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Annie Oakley]

Always the beautiful cyclogenesis. I wait all year for this. It does appear to be developing that embryo look.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST

Freakin gulf coast death ridge. Normally we would at least get some good tropical rains streaming north from a system hitting mexico but oh no not with our friendly drought ridge flexing its muscles on us again. Probably wont even see a cloud from it tomorrow. At least its good to see the season kick off but things look pretty quiet after Arlene moves inland. Could be a few weeks into July before we see another storm.

[cycloneye]

00z Models

SHIP ups intensity landfall to 58kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED JUN 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE (AL012011) 20110629 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110629  0000   110629  1200   110630  0000   110630  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.2N  93.8W   21.7N  96.0W   21.7N  97.9W   21.5N  99.6W
BAMD    21.2N  93.8W   21.6N  95.3W   21.8N  96.9W   21.8N  98.5W
BAMM    21.2N  93.8W   21.6N  95.7W   21.6N  97.4W   21.3N  99.1W
LBAR    21.2N  93.8W   21.9N  95.5W   22.7N  97.5W   23.5N  99.7W
SHIP        35KTS          45KTS          52KTS         58KTS
DSHP        35KTS          45KTS          52KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110701  0000   110702  0000   110703  0000   110704  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N 101.0W   20.5N 103.9W   20.6N 106.6W   21.4N 109.5W
BAMD    21.7N 100.2W   21.5N 104.2W   21.7N 108.0W   21.8N 111.8W
BAMM    21.1N 100.7W   20.4N 104.3W   20.3N 107.8W   20.5N 111.3W
LBAR    24.5N 101.9W   26.2N 106.0W   28.9N 109.2W   31.6N 111.9W
SHIP        60KTS          67KTS          64KTS          58KTS
DSHP        41KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.2N LONCUR =  93.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  20.7N LONM12 =  92.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  20.1N LONM24 =  91.6W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[South Texas Storms]

A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST

Freakin gulf coast death ridge. Normally we would at least get some good tropical rains streaming north from a system hitting mexico but oh no not with our friendly drought ridge flexing its muscles on us again. Probably wont even see a cloud from it tomorrow. At least its good to see the season kick off but things look pretty quiet after Arlene moves inland. Could be a few weeks into July before we see another storm.

Oh man I feel the exact same way. We usually get some rain from a tropical system hitting Mexico but not this time because of our stubborn and stupid friend who won't go away: the death ridge...

[JonathanBelles]

Can somebody post the RI guidance?

[lebron23]

A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST

Freakin gulf coast death ridge. Normally we would at least get some good tropical rains streaming north from a system hitting mexico but oh no not with our friendly drought ridge flexing its muscles on us again. Probably wont even see a cloud from it tomorrow. At least its good to see the season kick off but things look pretty quiet after Arlene moves inland. Could be a few weeks into July before we see another storm.

Oh man I feel the exact same way. We usually get some rain from a tropical system hitting Mexico but not this time because of our stubborn and stupid friend who won't go away: the death ridge...

6 inches from alex last year....

[TYNI]

I'm still looking for the circulation centre!!! Convection everywhere, quite a bit on the Yucatan as well...

[MGC]

Well, I guess that one cell developed near the CC and the NHC pulled the trigger.....I guess they are chomping at the bit to get some action also. Can't say I agree...but so be it. Just my opinion but there was too little convection near the center to upgrade at this time....hope ya'll in Texas at least get a little rain out of Arlene......MGC

[CrazyC83]

I did NOT expect this.

[cycloneye]

Can somebody post the RI guidance?

Here is is.

Code: Select all

                *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      ARLENE  AL012011  06/29/11  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    40    45    49    52    58    60    65    67    68    64    63    58
V (KT) LAND       35    40    45    49    52    58    41    31    28    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    35    39    44    47    51    57    42    31    28    27    27    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    13     9     6     4    12     9    14    11    16    21    16    22
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -3    -1    -2     1     1    -2     6     0     6    -3     4    -2
SHEAR DIR        284   290   290   316   277   321   332    10   343   329   345   344   327
SST (C)         28.7  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.2  28.1  28.4  28.7  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   145   145   143   142   140   137   136   140   144   146   146   144   142
ADJ. POT. INT.   130   130   128   126   124   121   120   124   128   126   127   125   123
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -50.9 -51.9 -51.0 -52.1 -51.2 -52.5 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     7     9     9     8    11     8    10     6     8     6    10
700-500 MB RH     80    76    75    78    78    76    80    81    87    87    87    84    81
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    13    15    14    13    12     9     8     6     7     5     6     4
850 MB ENV VOR    58    59    58    66    68    82   102   118   113   122    89    65    24
200 MB DIV        86    66    51    52    60    35    72    89    65    69    72    55    51
700-850 TADV      -2     0    -6    -1    -6    -7    -3   -15    -4   -11    -2    -5     0
LAND (KM)        310   273   217   155    95    19   -52  -161  -273  -321  -323  -296  -267
LAT (DEG N)     21.2  21.5  21.7  21.8  21.8  21.8  21.8  21.5  21.1  20.7  20.6  20.6  20.8
LONG(DEG W)     93.8  94.5  95.1  95.7  96.3  97.2  98.3  99.3 100.3 100.9 100.6 100.3 100.1
STM SPEED (KT)     6     7     6     6     5     5     5     5     4     1     1     1     1
HEAT CONTENT      39    40    42    40    37    10     0     0  9999  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/  6      CX,CY:  -4/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  500  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  71.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  13.  17.  20.  21.  22.  22.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   8.   7.   6.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.  -9.  -8. -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  14.  17.  23.  25.  30.  32.  33.  29.  28.  23.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011     ARLENE 06/29/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.1 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.3 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  92.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  39.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    36% is   2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    11% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011     ARLENE 06/29/11  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011     ARLENE 06/29/2011  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[CrazyC83]

Next flight is when, tomorrow morning?

[cycloneye]

Next flight is when, tomorrow morning?

Departs at 5:30 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 29/0930Z
D. 22.0N 96.0W
E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[tailgater]

I 'll be surprised if she's not @ 80mph before it reaches the coast. By the way Stacey Stewart rules.

[Rainband]

I think I said it depends on the high lol. Sorry you guys didn't get any rain but it's a long season

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say that I was surprised at the doubting over this system organizing by many on here. I've seen alot worse upper level conditions existing and a Cyclone form, heck they've even formed with cooler water as well.

[MississippiWx]

I have to say that I was surprised at the doubting over this system organizing by many on here. I've seen alot worse upper level conditions existing and a Cyclone form, heck they've even formed with cooler water as well.

Agreed. I've been impressed with her since this morning. She just had the look of a developing tropical depression/storm. If she can tighten her circulation, high end tropical storm force winds are not out of the equation.

[vbhoutex]

wanted the extra few hours of warning

In my view,that was the key factor to go ahead now.

I agree. With the longer lead times they are using this year for watches and warnings they needed to go ahead and pull the trigger. Probably a good decision since the conditions are so good for continued intensification. IMO always better safe than sorry.

[midnight8]

wanted the extra few hours of warning

In my view,that was the key factor to go ahead now.

I agree. With the longer lead times they are using this year for watches and warnings they needed to go ahead and pull the trigger. Probably a good decision since the conditions are so good for continued intensification. IMO always better safe than sorry.

So at some point might they start issuing watches for T/S that have not developed yet? They issue hurricane watches for T/S some times

[Macrocane]

This is a big surprise, I believed it was going to develop but not that fast, it was not a late start of the season after all.

[Macrocane]

Kudos to the GFS that sniffed development in the area before the other models, I know it developed two phantom systems before it, but it did a good job IMO.