ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[jasons2k]

HUMBERTO PART 2.

This is no Humberto. Humberto broke records. What we have is a large tropical storm slowly becoming better organized, which MAY make a run at Hurricane status before landfall. Let's not get carried away

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291455
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 35 20110629
144600 2222N 09655W 9713 00313 0064 +238 +226 027026 026 024 003 00
144630 2220N 09655W 9716 00310 0064 +236 +227 026026 026 022 003 03
144700 2218N 09656W 9715 00309 0063 +239 +224 026025 026 023 001 00
144730 2217N 09656W 9715 00309 0063 +238 +226 027025 025 023 001 03
144800 2215N 09656W 9715 00309 0062 +237 +230 027026 027 024 000 00
144830 2213N 09656W 9708 00314 0062 +235 +229 026028 028 024 000 03
144900 2211N 09656W 9720 00304 0062 +236 +222 025027 028 024 001 00
144930 2210N 09656W 9716 00306 0061 +235 +224 019025 025 026 003 00
145000 2208N 09656W 9713 00310 0061 +235 +229 016025 025 026 003 03
145030 2206N 09656W 9715 00308 0061 +233 +227 014022 023 026 004 00
145100 2204N 09656W 9715 00306 0060 +230 +223 010022 022 026 004 00
145130 2203N 09656W 9717 00303 0059 +232 +223 005022 022 025 002 03
145200 2201N 09656W 9710 00309 0059 +234 +222 006023 024 025 001 03
145230 2159N 09656W 9715 00305 0059 +232 +220 007026 026 025 003 00
145300 2157N 09656W 9715 00306 0059 +232 +215 008027 027 025 002 00
145330 2156N 09656W 9713 00308 0059 +235 +214 010027 027 026 001 03
145400 2154N 09656W 9713 00306 0058 +233 +219 008028 028 025 002 03
145430 2152N 09656W 9720 00299 0059 +230 +217 007028 029 026 001 00
145500 2150N 09656W 9712 00307 0058 +234 +216 007028 029 025 001 00
145530 2148N 09656W 9714 00305 0058 +231 +222 003027 028 025 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[piggy]

WTNT41 KNHC 291446
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS ARLENE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ARLENE WAS LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...WHICH REQUIRES SOME
SOUTHWARD RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE LATEST
FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW WEST OR 270/7. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ARLENE SHOULD INDUCE
A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN MORE OF A TURN TO
THE LEFT AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.2N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 21.2N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 21.0N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 20.8N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291505
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 36 20110629
145600 2147N 09657W 9713 00307 0057 +233 +225 007028 029 025 002 03
145630 2145N 09657W 9715 00305 0057 +236 +217 009028 029 024 002 00
145700 2143N 09657W 9712 00308 0057 +237 +223 006028 028 025 001 03
145730 2141N 09657W 9713 00305 0057 +240 +222 007027 028 023 002 00
145800 2139N 09657W 9719 00301 0057 +239 +222 004026 026 022 000 03
145830 2138N 09657W 9716 00304 0057 +239 +226 004026 026 023 001 00
145900 2136N 09657W 9716 00304 0057 +240 +224 004026 026 022 001 00
145930 2134N 09657W 9713 00305 0057 +240 +223 359026 027 025 001 03
150000 2132N 09657W 9715 00305 0058 +240 +224 359026 026 025 002 03
150030 2131N 09657W 9714 00306 0058 +240 +226 359027 027 026 002 03
150100 2129N 09657W 9713 00306 0058 +240 +222 356027 027 028 002 03
150130 2127N 09657W 9713 00306 0058 +240 +226 356028 029 031 000 00
150200 2125N 09657W 9713 00305 0057 +239 +225 352029 030 030 002 00
150230 2123N 09657W 9716 00303 0057 +236 +228 351031 032 030 004 03
150300 2122N 09657W 9716 00304 0057 +235 +228 350032 033 032 006 00
150330 2120N 09657W 9715 00302 0056 +235 +224 347035 037 035 007 00
150400 2118N 09657W 9711 00307 0057 +230 +223 346037 038 034 008 00
150430 2116N 09658W 9714 00305 0059 +220 //// 346035 037 030 009 01
150500 2114N 09658W 9718 00299 0060 +217 +212 344035 035 031 015 00
150530 2112N 09658W 9720 00301 0061 +205 //// 344033 034 049 021 01
$$
;

[vbhoutex]

Can someone tell me what that is, seen coming from the north of Arlene, it looks an outflow from the T-storms over the southern plains last nite or some sort of dry air being forced southward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

It is our lovely ridge expanding SW. What you are seeing is Arlene bumping up against it and being pushed into a more Westerly course as the expansion/movement of the ridge continues.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291515
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 37 20110629
150600 2111N 09658W 9712 00304 0061 +195 //// 352034 037 052 022 05
150630 2109N 09658W 9718 00300 0062 +195 //// 353031 033 049 017 01
150700 2107N 09658W 9699 00317 0061 +198 +197 336038 043 039 016 00
150730 2105N 09658W 9719 00296 0058 +199 //// 323040 042 038 015 01
150800 2103N 09658W 9717 00297 0058 +195 //// 321040 041 051 025 05
150830 2102N 09658W 9717 00300 0059 +193 //// 317039 040 052 030 05
150900 2100N 09658W 9713 00303 0061 +190 //// 316042 043 /// /// 05
150930 2058N 09657W 9719 00297 0060 +191 //// 310042 043 049 026 01
151000 2057N 09656W 9717 00300 0060 +190 //// 306044 045 049 021 01
151030 2055N 09654W 9713 00304 0060 +196 +192 304043 043 045 015 00
151100 2054N 09653W 9712 00304 0060 +196 +191 301043 043 040 015 00
151130 2052N 09652W 9712 00301 0057 +192 //// 301045 045 046 016 01
151200 2050N 09651W 9721 00293 0057 +195 +192 301046 047 041 010 00
151230 2049N 09650W 9716 00299 0058 +192 +191 301044 046 037 007 00
151300 2047N 09649W 9719 00293 0056 +196 +194 307044 046 038 008 00
151330 2046N 09648W 9708 00301 0055 +203 +193 300049 051 040 004 00
151400 2044N 09647W 9725 00289 0055 +207 +193 296046 048 035 006 00
151430 2043N 09646W 9710 00301 0052 +212 +190 298048 050 037 004 00
151500 2041N 09645W 9719 00292 0051 +220 +190 299051 051 037 003 00
151530 2039N 09643W 9714 00296 0052 +212 +195 295051 052 038 002 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291525
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 38 20110629
151600 2038N 09642W 9717 00293 0051 +212 +197 292049 051 036 008 00
151630 2036N 09641W 9725 00287 0052 +201 +197 288048 049 039 010 00
151700 2035N 09640W 9719 00293 0052 +195 //// 283046 047 036 009 01
151730 2033N 09639W 9717 00290 0049 +199 +198 279046 048 036 012 00
151800 2032N 09638W 9716 00291 0048 +202 +195 281046 047 050 019 03
151830 2030N 09637W 9713 00290 0050 +188 //// 280050 051 050 025 01
151900 2029N 09636W 9720 00290 0052 +189 //// 279047 048 044 019 01
151930 2027N 09635W 9718 00291 0053 +188 //// 278046 047 047 021 01
152000 2026N 09634W 9715 00296 0053 +187 //// 274044 046 042 024 01
152030 2024N 09633W 9720 00290 0052 +188 //// 274042 042 053 028 01
152100 2023N 09632W 9716 00294 0054 +185 //// 279044 045 054 029 01
152130 2021N 09631W 9719 00294 0057 +186 //// 277043 044 045 024 01
152200 2020N 09630W 9720 00293 0056 +189 //// 276043 044 038 023 05
152230 2020N 09628W 9718 00296 0055 +188 //// 270042 044 /// /// 05
152300 2021N 09627W 9719 00292 0054 +189 //// 271041 042 042 016 01
152330 2022N 09625W 9713 00295 0050 +198 //// 268043 044 040 014 01
152400 2024N 09624W 9717 00294 0050 +195 +194 268042 043 040 022 00
152430 2025N 09623W 9715 00292 0049 +190 //// 266042 043 046 023 01
152500 2026N 09621W 9718 00287 0046 +191 //// 264044 045 046 026 01
152530 2028N 09620W 9719 00281 0041 +194 +193 262046 047 047 019 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Anyone want to take over so I can grab some lunch?

[TheBurn]

14:45

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291535
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 39 20110629
152600 2029N 09619W 9716 00285 0042 +193 //// 260045 046 044 032 05
152630 2030N 09617W 9725 00279 0041 +193 //// 272042 046 061 032 01
152700 2031N 09616W 9708 00291 0039 +196 //// 285038 043 052 026 05
152730 2033N 09615W 9706 00293 0038 +201 //// 279029 030 046 021 05
152800 2034N 09613W 9720 00279 0038 +213 +204 287030 032 035 012 03
152830 2035N 09612W 9714 00283 0037 +207 +206 299025 027 033 013 03
152900 2036N 09611W 9705 00288 0036 +203 +199 315032 036 035 009 00
152930 2037N 09610W 9709 00284 0033 +204 //// 327031 033 033 009 01
153000 2038N 09609W 9710 00280 0030 +202 //// 328030 031 049 021 05
153030 2039N 09608W 9702 00289 0030 +200 //// 324031 033 043 019 01
153100 2040N 09607W 9710 00279 0028 +200 //// 323033 034 042 030 01
153130 2041N 09606W 9712 00276 0025 +204 //// 316031 033 042 021 01
153200 2042N 09604W 9704 00282 0024 +204 //// 320026 030 052 020 01
153230 2043N 09603W 9696 00289 0021 +207 //// 322019 022 047 025 05
153300 2045N 09602W 9706 00276 0021 +206 //// 334023 025 036 015 01
153330 2046N 09601W 9698 00285 0018 +224 +214 339024 024 027 008 00
153400 2047N 09600W 9702 00279 0016 +234 +215 338021 022 023 002 00
153430 2048N 09559W 9699 00280 0015 +234 +219 342020 021 024 001 00
153500 2049N 09558W 9700 00279 0013 +238 +218 347016 017 019 003 00
153530 2050N 09557W 9698 00280 0013 +237 +220 347015 016 018 002 03
$$
;


Ok it's off the grille now and I'm going to eat. Take over.

[piggy]

Can someone with more knowledge view this website and tell me if it is useful?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

[stormreader]

Can someone tell me what that is, seen coming from the north of Arlene, it looks an outflow from the T-storms over the southern plains last nite or some sort of dry air being forced southward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

It is our lovely ridge expanding SW. What you are seeing is Arlene bumping up against it and being pushed into a more Westerly course as the expansion/movement of the ridge continues.

Yup---T-Storms to the north are being suppressed by that "lovely ridge" with most of the convection now at the lat of the center or further south. As stated earlier, don't see much relief for dry areas in Texas from this system as it heads west well below the border.

[brunota2003]

I can grab it for a couple sets:

000
URNT15 KNHC 291545
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 40 20110629
153600 2051N 09555W 9699 00278 0012 +241 +225 353016 019 016 001 00
153630 2052N 09554W 9702 00275 0012 +224 //// 007021 022 040 010 05
153700 2053N 09553W 9695 00281 0009 +236 +228 006022 023 024 001 03
153730 2054N 09552W 9699 00277 0009 +236 +229 002022 022 /// /// 03
153800 2055N 09551W 9704 00271 0007 +239 +230 360021 021 /// /// 03
153830 2056N 09550W 9700 00272 0006 +239 +234 001018 019 /// /// 03
153900 2057N 09549W 9700 00272 0005 +240 +236 005018 018 /// /// 03
153930 2058N 09548W 9700 00271 0004 +240 +239 006018 018 021 002 03
154000 2059N 09547W 9699 00271 0002 +243 +242 008017 018 024 001 00
154030 2100N 09546W 9700 00268 0001 +244 +240 015016 017 022 002 00
154100 2101N 09545W 9699 00269 0001 +245 +245 023015 016 017 000 03
154130 2102N 09543W 9692 00275 0000 +245 //// 029012 013 004 002 05
154200 2102N 09542W 9702 00267 0001 +244 //// 032009 010 005 001 05
154230 2103N 09540W 9699 00270 0002 +242 //// 043006 007 006 003 05
154300 2103N 09539W 9700 00271 0003 +242 //// 066006 006 005 003 05
154330 2103N 09537W 9699 00273 0004 +240 //// 078003 004 003 000 05
154400 2103N 09536W 9700 00272 0005 +240 //// 093002 003 003 001 05
154430 2103N 09534W 9699 00273 0006 +240 //// 160002 002 003 002 05
154500 2102N 09532W 9700 00273 0007 +240 //// 164002 003 002 002 05
154530 2102N 09531W 9700 00273 0007 +240 //// 158005 005 002 003 05
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Latest SFMR data suggests a 50 kt intensity.

[South Texas Storms]

Grrrr just looking at Arlene on satellite and model projected rainfall from it makes me so frustrated. All of Texas is now experiencing its WORST drought in history and we just have to watch widespread 5-10 inch rainfall amounts go a few hundred miles south of us. I'm so sad.