ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#481 Postby stormreader » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:37 pm

Latest loop shows how energy has really consolidated around the center. Intensification should begin very shortly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#482 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:42 pm

URNT15 KNHC 291840
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 03 20110629
183030 2940N 08936W 4191 07225 0375 -134 //// 055005 005 /// /// 05
183100 2938N 08937W 4149 07312 0384 -135 //// 064006 006 /// /// 05
183130 2937N 08939W 4105 07391 0391 -135 //// 082007 007 /// /// 05
183200 2935N 08941W 4064 07466 0395 -140 //// 089005 006 /// /// 05
183230 2934N 08942W 4020 07551 0402 -144 //// 102005 005 /// /// 05
183300 2932N 08944W 3976 07647 0418 -148 //// 126006 006 /// /// 05
183330 2931N 08945W 3939 07719 0426 -152 //// 129005 005 /// /// 05
183400 2929N 08947W 3924 07747 0428 -155 //// 133006 006 /// /// 05
183430 2927N 08949W 3923 07749 0429 -155 //// 132005 006 /// /// 05
183500 2926N 08950W 3923 07750 0430 -154 //// 132004 004 /// /// 05
183530 2924N 08952W 3925 07753 0435 -150 //// 105003 003 /// /// 05
183600 2922N 08954W 3923 07757 0438 -151 //// 095002 003 /// /// 05
183630 2921N 08956W 3925 07755 0438 -153 -158 077004 005 /// /// 03
183700 2919N 08958W 3926 07752 0438 -155 -166 067006 006 /// /// 03
183730 2917N 09000W 3926 07751 0436 -155 -174 061007 007 /// /// 03
183800 2915N 09002W 3926 07751 0435 -155 -182 065007 007 /// /// 03
183830 2913N 09004W 3926 07756 0439 -156 -190 067008 008 /// /// 03
183900 2911N 09006W 3923 07758 0440 -157 -197 063007 008 /// /// 03
183930 2909N 09008W 3930 07747 0440 -159 -202 064008 008 /// /// 03
184000 2907N 09009W 3923 07768 0447 -155 -207 075008 008 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:53 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 989.5mb/ 57.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.0 4.2


Intensifying
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#484 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:57 pm

Image

vorticity + surface obs
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#485 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:59 pm

URNT15 KNHC 291857
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 04 20110629
184030 2905N 09011W 3929 07757 0447 -155 -211 072008 009 /// /// 03
184100 2903N 09013W 3926 07762 0446 -155 -214 065009 010 /// /// 03
184130 2901N 09015W 3926 07759 0445 -153 -218 065010 010 /// /// 03
184200 2859N 09017W 3926 07758 0443 -150 -232 065009 010 /// /// 03
184230 2857N 09019W 3926 07752 0439 -150 -239 071009 009 /// /// 03
184300 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184330 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184400 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184430 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184500 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184530 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184600 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184630 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184700 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184730 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184800 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184830 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184900 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
184930 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185000 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#486 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:59 pm

hriverajr wrote:Off Topic but I hope the ignition is not five weeks away... the drought....



I agree. We need a weak tropical storm to move across Texas bringing us widespread 4-8 inches of rain. That would be perfect.

Back to Arlene. Doesn't it seem like Mexico has been the hotspot for landfalling tropical systems this past year? Last season Alex, Hermine, Kyle and now Arlene this season will be 4 landfalls for them in 1 year. Isn't that rare for them?
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#487 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 291903
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 05 20110629
185030 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185100 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185130 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185200 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185230 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185300 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185330 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185400 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185430 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185500 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03
185530 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0441 -153 -226 070010 014 /// /// 03
185600 2803N 09109W 3927 07744 0432 -160 -214 074014 014 /// /// 03
185630 2801N 09111W 3927 07747 0433 -160 -216 076014 014 /// /// 03
185700 2759N 09113W 3926 07747 0432 -160 -215 073014 015 /// /// 03
185730 2757N 09115W 3926 07747 0431 -159 -214 065015 016 /// /// 03
185800 2755N 09117W 3927 07751 0433 -160 -213 072015 015 /// /// 03
185830 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 071015 015 /// /// 03
185900 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
185930 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
190000 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#488 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:15 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Off Topic but I hope the ignition is not five weeks away... the drought....



I agree. We need a weak tropical storm to move across Texas bringing us widespread 4-8 inches of rain. That would be perfect.

Back to Arlene. Doesn't it seem like Mexico has been the hotspot for landfalling tropical systems this past year? Last season Alex, Hermine, Kyle and now Arlene this season will be 4 landfalls for them in 1 year. Isn't that rare for them?


In 2005 they had Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan and Wilma.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#489 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Off Topic but I hope the ignition is not five weeks away... the drought....



I agree. We need a weak tropical storm to move across Texas bringing us widespread 4-8 inches of rain. That would be perfect.

Back to Arlene. Doesn't it seem like Mexico has been the hotspot for landfalling tropical systems this past year? Last season Alex, Hermine, Kyle and now Arlene this season will be 4 landfalls for them in 1 year. Isn't that rare for them?


In 2005 they had Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan and Wilma.

and emily
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby JTE50 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:25 pm

In 2005 they had Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan and Wilma.[/quote]
and emily[/quote]

Yeah don't forget Emily! http://www.extremestorms.com/emily.htm
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:27 pm

Image
I say 70mph next Advisory, it'll be interesting to see what recon finds in the next few hours
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:29 pm

:eek: Arlene is developing a very nice structure right now, it seems that it is solving its inner core problems, it could reach minimal hurricane status if the trend continues. This is an unofficial opinion.
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#493 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:37 pm

It´s an extremely useful site if you want to have a look at reconnaissance information without decoding the raw data.
The best recon page in in my opinion, because it is always up-to-date.

@topic: The hunters seem to have serious problems with their GPS system and instruments,
40 mins ago they were at the same position for about 8 mins or so.
Now they aren't even transmitting any data...
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:46 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUN 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 21:11:55 N Lon : 96:06:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 988.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.6 4.1

Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#495 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:47 pm

Here is #6.

URNT15 KNHC 291944
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 06 20110629
190030 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
190100 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
190130 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
190200 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03
190230 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0432 -156 -209 062011 014 009 000 03
190300 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190330 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190400 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190430 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190500 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190530 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190600 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190630 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190700 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190730 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190800 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190830 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190900 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
190930 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191000 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#496 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:49 pm

#7

URNT15 KNHC 291947
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 07 20110629
191030 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191100 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191130 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191200 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191230 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191300 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191330 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191400 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191430 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191500 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191530 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191600 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191630 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191700 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191730 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191800 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191830 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191900 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
191930 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
192000 2735N 09135W 3926 07750 0432 -154 -220 048008 009 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon Discussion

#497 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:50 pm

Who wants to continue the posting of the Obs?
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon

#498 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:58 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 291953
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 10 20110629
194030 2505N 09347W 3927 07745 0431 -156 //// 052016 018 /// /// 05
194100 2503N 09349W 3918 07758 0428 -153 //// 070022 027 /// /// 05
194130 2501N 09351W 3922 07755 0430 -149 //// 048018 019 /// /// 05
194200 2459N 09353W 3925 07744 0427 -144 //// 064020 022 /// /// 05
194230 2456N 09354W 3926 07741 0425 -145 //// 066025 033 /// /// 05
194300 2454N 09355W 3921 07755 0425 -145 //// 068024 027 /// /// 05
194330 2451N 09356W 3925 07744 0423 -145 //// 065023 026 /// /// 05
194400 2449N 09357W 3929 07729 0424 -145 //// 064025 027 /// /// 05
194430 2446N 09358W 3922 07753 0423 -146 //// 066027 029 /// /// 05
194500 2444N 09359W 3929 07735 0423 -146 //// 070029 031 /// /// 05
194530 2441N 09359W 3928 07736 0424 -145 //// 075027 029 /// /// 05
194600 2439N 09400W 3922 07744 0425 -146 //// 082028 028 /// /// 05
194630 2436N 09401W 3929 07733 0423 -143 //// 090028 029 /// /// 05
194700 2434N 09402W 3919 07755 0424 -144 //// 088030 032 /// /// 05
194730 2432N 09403W 3927 07733 0423 -141 //// 084028 029 /// /// 05
194800 2429N 09404W 3926 07744 0426 -142 //// 088024 025 /// /// 05
194830 2427N 09405W 3927 07735 0424 -145 //// 091028 028 /// /// 05
194900 2424N 09406W 3925 07743 0425 -143 //// 087026 027 /// /// 05
194930 2422N 09407W 3926 07740 0425 -145 //// 092026 027 /// /// 05
195000 2419N 09408W 3926 07741 0424 -145 //// 086024 025 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Recon Discussion

#499 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:58 pm

:uarrow: i'll take it
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#500 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 3:02 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 292000
AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 11 20110629
195030 2417N 09409W 3925 07747 0423 -144 //// 086028 029 /// /// 05
195100 2414N 09409W 3926 07737 0424 -145 //// 080023 025 /// /// 05
195130 2412N 09410W 3926 07742 0424 -144 //// 081021 023 /// /// 05
195200 2410N 09411W 3925 07741 0424 -145 //// 096025 028 /// /// 05
195230 2407N 09412W 3927 07735 0424 -145 //// 102027 027 /// /// 05
195300 2405N 09413W 3923 07749 0424 -145 //// 105024 025 /// /// 05
195330 2402N 09414W 3927 07733 0422 -145 //// 107026 028 /// /// 05
195400 2400N 09415W 3926 07736 0422 -145 //// 110025 026 /// /// 05
195430 2358N 09416W 3926 07740 0419 -145 //// 109022 023 /// /// 05
195500 2355N 09417W 3925 07722 0406 -145 //// 104023 023 /// /// 05
195530 2353N 09417W 3927 07719 0405 -145 //// 106024 025 /// /// 05
195600 2350N 09418W 3925 07722 0405 -144 //// 108024 024 /// /// 05
195630 2348N 09419W 3927 07717 0404 -145 //// 108024 025 /// /// 05
195700 2346N 09420W 3926 07717 0404 -145 //// 107025 025 /// /// 05
195730 2343N 09421W 3926 07720 0403 -145 //// 104024 024 /// /// 05
195800 2341N 09422W 3926 07720 0403 -148 //// 103023 024 /// /// 05
195830 2339N 09423W 3926 07712 0398 -147 //// 104025 027 /// /// 05
195900 2336N 09423W 3926 07711 0398 -145 //// 106029 030 /// /// 05
195930 2334N 09424W 3924 07720 0401 -140 //// 100025 026 /// /// 05
200000 2331N 09425W 3925 07717 0400 -142 //// 089025 026 /// /// 05
$$
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