ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[piggy]

Arlene continuing to wind up in PW loop.

SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

Although I've never posted before I've followed the forums here for a long while -- finally registered for a username this month. Hurricane season is my fav weather time -- I get excited when June 1st rolls around. I'm in school for my degree in MET and I've always been a weather geek, so I love reading the discussions and the speculations amongst everyone here, both professional and amateur hurricane fiends. I'm following along and checking in several times a day. My family gets peppered with comments: "Arlene is looking impressive compared to yesterday!" and "The shear is abating and she's down to 996mb now!" They have little idea what I'm talking about but tolerate my random blurts and radar fixations, lol. It's great to read a forum where everyone is as interested as me -- so thanks for everyone who posts all the graphs, readings, and their own 2 cents -- it's my weather fix! I'm definitely keeping up with the forum and Arlene's progress, I've just been very (very) quiet all this time.

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all of what the board has. If you have any question,dont hesitate to ask.

[lester]

Although I've never posted before I've followed the forums here for a long while -- finally registered for a username this month. Hurricane season is my fav weather time -- I get excited when June 1st rolls around. I'm in school for my degree in MET and I've always been a weather geek, so I love reading the discussions and the speculations amongst everyone here, both professional and amateur hurricane fiends. I'm following along and checking in several times a day. My family gets peppered with comments: "Arlene is looking impressive compared to yesterday!" and "The shear is abating and she's down to 996mb now!" They have little idea what I'm talking about but tolerate my random blurts and radar fixations, lol. It's great to read a forum where everyone is as interested as me -- so thanks for everyone who posts all the graphs, readings, and their own 2 cents -- it's my weather fix! I'm definitely keeping up with the forum and Arlene's progress, I've just been very (very) quiet all this time.

Welcome to the boards!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA AND
FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. TAMPICO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46
MPH...74 KM/H....IN A RAIN BAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 64 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH ARLENE WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB.
SEVERAL SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS CLOSE TO 50 KT WERE ALSO RECORDED ON
THAT PASS AND THE SUBSEQUENT ONE AROUND 2300 UTC. EARLIER
MICROWAVE PASSES REVEALED A PROMINENT BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT A LACK OF ANY DISTINGUISHING CENTRAL FEATURES. THE
LATTER MATCHES WHAT THE PLANE ALSO FOUND...A LARGE REGION OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. ON THE BASIS OF THE PLANE
REPORTS AND 0000 UTC TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF
3.5/3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE
CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM
SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BESIDES...THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS
IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATES ARLENE REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER. A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK TO NEAR LANDFALL. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE CHANGES AND AS
THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO EARLIER
DECELERATION.

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.5N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.5N 97.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.3N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 20.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[psyclone]

Although I've never posted before I've followed the forums here for a long while -- finally registered for a username this month. Hurricane season is my fav weather time -- I get excited when June 1st rolls around. I'm in school for my degree in MET and I've always been a weather geek, so I love reading the discussions and the speculations amongst everyone here, both professional and amateur hurricane fiends. I'm following along and checking in several times a day. My family gets peppered with comments: "Arlene is looking impressive compared to yesterday!" and "The shear is abating and she's down to 996mb now!" They have little idea what I'm talking about but tolerate my random blurts and radar fixations, lol. It's great to read a forum where everyone is as interested as me -- so thanks for everyone who posts all the graphs, readings, and their own 2 cents -- it's my weather fix! I'm definitely keeping up with the forum and Arlene's progress, I've just been very (very) quiet all this time.

welcome to the board. i can really relate to your post. l love loitering on here with folks as obsessed about the weather as i am. like many others on here, i read and lurk more than i type but it all feeds a healthy, lifelong addiction. as for arlene, she's looking great for the first storm of the year. the BOC has been very productive in recent years. it would be nice if some the moisture eventually gets sheared off to the north after landfall and gives texas some much needed rain. i watch all of 'em, even when they have no chance of impacting me.

[cycloneye]

The most important part of the 10 PM discussion is this:

THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS
IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATES ARLENE REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite healthy tonight

[lebron23]

Hoping Arlene throws a band of rain through Houston, doubt it though..

[Macrocane]

Yeah it looks pretty good although it still has some inner core problems, I would have put the intensity at 55 kt tonight, anyway the winds are not the biggest problem with this system it's the rain, and ironically they're not only dangerous but beneficial for Mexico as they have been suffering a drought this year.

[lebron23]

1am advisory should get it up to 65...

[Bobo2000]

Trying to gain an eyewall. Should be up to 70 soon.

[South Texas Storms]

Dang those are some very cold cloud temperatures on the latest infared satellite images. It looks like they are streaming north into Arlene's circulation.

[lebron23]

Could be first cane....

[Hylian Auree]

Woah, that convection exploded out of nowhere. Poor Mexico : (

[lebron23]

Woah, that convection exploded out of nowhere. Poor Mexico : (

Mexico needs the rain, not the wind

[Sanibel]

Deep energy in that SE boundary/band. We'll see if it gets pulled in and makes hurricane.

[Extratropical94]

No hurricane, still at 60 mph

[Extratropical94]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
100 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CABO ROJO MEXICO. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ISLA LOBOS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
42 MPH...68 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS
DECREASING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

NNNN

[Brent]

THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CABO ROJO MEXICO. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS

[Extratropical94]

So that line and the microwave structure imply that Arlene is certainly not gonna reach hurricane status, some good news for the Mexican coastline.