WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

#1 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:54 am

Man they are popping up all over the place now..

This one is located at: 7N 135E Near Yap.

#2 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:56 am

Of all the invest that has popped up in the last couple of days this has the least shear arond it..

#3 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:47 pm

latest..still way to much shear out there

#4 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:40 am

Latest..models hint and this developing between 5-10 Jul

#5 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:46 am

latest wind shear..it has been decreasing...

#6 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:03 pm

more then it was 2 days ago..still nothng in the NRL site and TWC..however remember theyare calling ofr it to develop after July though..just have to watch ad wait..SHear sis till a little high around the storm

#7 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:27 pm

Here is the percentage probabilty as it is moving on up..

#8 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:30 pm

Interesting...

#9 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:37 pm

Here is another one..this is the 1800 vice 1200...still trying to track something...

#10 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:57 pm

A fairly elongated circulation was indicated on the ascat on the last pass in this region, but one none the less.

#11 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:01 pm

StormingB81 wrote:

Here is the percentage probabilty as it is moving on up..

I guess I should have this link, but I don't, could you pass it to me?

#12 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:04 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

Here it is!

euro6208 · #13 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:19 pm

euro forecasting a large tropical cyclone to develop east of luzon.

#14 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:24 pm

Things about to get interesting in Wpac and ECMWF has been hinting for a few days now of formation of something near NE Philippines. CMC developing 94W quite aggressively but other models are quite modest with the intensity.

StormingB81 wrote:more then it was 2 days ago..still nothng in the NRL site and TWC..however remember theyare calling ofr it to develop after July though..just have to watch ad wait..SHear sis till a little high around the storm

Hey Storming - not wishing to be a spelling nazi but some of your posts are quite difficult to understand these days! :wink:

#15 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:00 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Things about to get interesting in Wpac and ECMWF has been hinting for a few days now of formation of something near NE Philippines. CMC developing 94W quite aggressively but other models are quite modest with the intensity.

StormingB81 wrote:more then it was 2 days ago..still nothng in the NRL site and TWC..however remember theyare calling ofr it to develop after July though..just have to watch ad wait..SHear sis till a little high around the storm

Hey Storming - not wishing to be a spelling nazi but some of your posts are quite difficult to understand these days!

SOrry sometimes I type really quick and don;t check spelling..bad habbit of mine just to hurry up and post....I know I need to slow down and look as smart as a 29 year old..lol So I am sorry. I will slow down and check..Writing is better then typing.

#16 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:47 am

Lol no worries. I know what it's like, so much to say and so little time

Our blob has now been upgraded to LOW by JTWC:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N 135.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 012348Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK (10-
15 KNOT) FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER
(15-20 KNOT) WESTERLY FLOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS FROM
PALAU SHOW NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 6 KNOTS AND AN OVERALL 1 MB
PRESSURE DROP TO 1007 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

#17 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:45 am

Likes this path still..see what happends if and when it develops..

#18 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:53 am

Fantastic, hit the panic mode and start running around and circles here. LOL

naaa Just kidding but seriosly, seems appropriate for this system.

#19 Postby **oaba09** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 2:55 am

If this fully develops and affects the SW monsoon the way MAERI did, we're probably gonna get drenched again...

#20 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 5:59 pm

Soo Models are really splt...CMC is putting it over Okinawa. Others put it towards Tawain..and the Euro..well it does a hard left between Tawain and PI right into the SCS.

WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

Re:

Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

Who is online