AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST THU JUN 30 2011
.UPDATE...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE SHOWER PROBABILITY AS
WELL AS COVERAGE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS A CONVERGENCE LINE MOVED FROM EAST
TO WEST. LATEST SJU SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED.
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM VICINITY OF SAINT THOMAS WESTWARD TO WEST
PUERTO RICO...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST INTERIOR AND WEST PART OF
PR. SAINT JOHN...SAINT CROIX AND CARIBBEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HAZE LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND
LACK OF INVERSION. METEO SAT 9 SAHARAN AIR LAYER PICTURE FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWS NO HAZE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10-20 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. VERTICAL AND HORIONTAL VISIBILITY HAS
IMPROVED AS THE SAHARAN AIR VENTILATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST FROM VCNTY TIST
TO TJMZ. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND FROM 17Z TO 21Z WITH
LOCALIZED IFR INLAND VCNTY WESTERN INTERIOR PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AFT 00Z ACROSS PR/USVI
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST THU JUN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A CUT OFF LOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HAITI. A RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE NORTH THE RIDGE WILL
FILL IN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. ON THURSDAY A CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...DRIFTING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...ON SUNDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTH WHERE WEAK TROUGHINESS EXISTS TODAY. THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS MAINTAINING EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER PERIOD AND A THIRD WAVE AROUND THE SUCCEEDING SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED FROM MARICAO TO
CULEBRA AND WERE LEAVING AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WATER OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
REPEAT ON FRIDAY AS THE WAVE FORECAST TO APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PASS ON SATURDAY DRAWS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
WAVE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
SOUTH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY BUT
ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...MAINLY ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BUILD
SOMEWHAT...BUT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY WAVES UNTIL SATURDAY 9
JULY FOR OUR AREA...SO EXPECT A DRIER WEEK NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
THE USUAL STRONG CONVECTION IN WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.
AFRICAN DUST HAS ABATED A LITTLE AND WILL BE WASHED OUT OF THE
AIR TO SOME EXTEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT DUST IS SEEN
FOLLOWING THE NEXT WAVE ALL THE WAY BACK TO AFRICA AND SO EXPECT
SOME DUST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REDUCED TO 8 TO 12 MILES.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG TSTMS ARE SCT FROM HORMIGUEROS TO CULEBRA AND
WILL CREATE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CONDS AS LOW AS IFR UNTIL 01/00Z.
SHRAS AND TSTMS RETURN TO PR AND WATERS DOWNSTREAM FROM TIST AND
TISX AFTER 01/16Z.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL HOLD JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WAVES TRAVERSE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FEET IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WAVE
PASSAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 10 20 30 60
STT 80 88 78 89 / 10 30 30 70
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST THU JUN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A CUT OFF LOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HAITI. A RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE NORTH THE RIDGE WILL
FILL IN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. ON THURSDAY A CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...DRIFTING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...ON SUNDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTH WHERE WEAK TROUGHINESS EXISTS TODAY. THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY WHILE WEAKENING.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS MAINTAINING EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER PERIOD AND A THIRD WAVE AROUND THE SUCCEEDING SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED FROM MARICAO TO
CULEBRA AND WERE LEAVING AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WATER OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
REPEAT ON FRIDAY AS THE WAVE FORECAST TO APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PASS ON SATURDAY DRAWS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
WAVE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
SOUTH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY BUT
ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...MAINLY ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BUILD
SOMEWHAT...BUT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY WAVES UNTIL SATURDAY 9
JULY FOR OUR AREA...SO EXPECT A DRIER WEEK NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
THE USUAL STRONG CONVECTION IN WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.
AFRICAN DUST HAS ABATED A LITTLE AND WILL BE WASHED OUT OF THE
AIR TO SOME EXTEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT DUST IS SEEN
FOLLOWING THE NEXT WAVE ALL THE WAY BACK TO AFRICA AND SO EXPECT
SOME DUST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REDUCED TO 8 TO 12 MILES.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG TSTMS ARE SCT FROM HORMIGUEROS TO CULEBRA AND
WILL CREATE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CONDS AS LOW AS IFR UNTIL 01/00Z.
SHRAS AND TSTMS RETURN TO PR AND WATERS DOWNSTREAM FROM TIST AND
TISX AFTER 01/16Z.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL HOLD JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WAVES TRAVERSE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEAS MAY REACH 7 FEET IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WAVE
PASSAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 10 20 30 60
STT 80 88 78 89 / 10 30 30 70
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
Good morning. Tropical wave is moving thru the Eastern Caribbean today.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
GOES BY AS THE TROPICAL WVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FA ON SATURDAY MORNING...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/16Z AND 01/22Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 30 50 50 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 30 50 50 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
GOES BY AS THE TROPICAL WVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FA ON SATURDAY MORNING...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/16Z AND 01/22Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 30 50 50 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 30 50 50 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...
.UPDATE...BANDS FROM THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST OF SAINT CROIX. CURRENTLY
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING VELOCITIES AT 6000 FEET IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. THE AREA OF HIGHEST VELOCITIES IS MOVING AT 34 KNOTS
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. AT PRESENT RATES BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO BEFORE NOON AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS FAR AS MAYAGUEZ BY 3 PM AST. SKIES WILL ALSO CLOUD
OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON FRO ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS IN GENERAL ARE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THESE WINDS CAN REACH THE
GROUND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WE HAVE INCREASED SEAS OVER THE MOST AREAS OF OUR LOCAL WATERS.
THIS RAISES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...SOME BEGINNING NOW AND OTHERS
AT 6 PM AST.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE SOUNDING FROM 01/12Z SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
BETTER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...AND 30
KNOTS AT 7800 FEET. SOME IFR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU 02/04Z.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...
.UPDATE...BANDS FROM THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST OF SAINT CROIX. CURRENTLY
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING VELOCITIES AT 6000 FEET IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS. THE AREA OF HIGHEST VELOCITIES IS MOVING AT 34 KNOTS
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. AT PRESENT RATES BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO BEFORE NOON AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS FAR AS MAYAGUEZ BY 3 PM AST. SKIES WILL ALSO CLOUD
OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON FRO ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS IN GENERAL ARE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THESE WINDS CAN REACH THE
GROUND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WE HAVE INCREASED SEAS OVER THE MOST AREAS OF OUR LOCAL WATERS.
THIS RAISES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...SOME BEGINNING NOW AND OTHERS
AT 6 PM AST.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE SOUNDING FROM 01/12Z SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
BETTER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...AND 30
KNOTS AT 7800 FEET. SOME IFR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU 02/04Z.
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expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 458
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
expat2carib wrote:It's breezy out here now. It is a significant wave. No rain but windy here on St. Maarten.
Hi my friend glad to see you ! We have modest amounts of water since yesterday 20 to 40 millimeters in some areas but wind has picked up nicely at la Désirade with a gust at 43 knots. Agree expat2carib, a very significant twave for this month of July. Moreover Guadeloupe and Martinica are in yellow alert since yesterday 5PM. Oh good news at the moment... Guadeloupe has back off the yellow alert... returning to green code while Martinica continues to be on a yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC013-017-047-051-091-135-143-145-012100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0253.110701T1805Z-110701T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-
MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
205 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...
MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO
* UNTIL 500 PM AST
* AT 204 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A LINE
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1849 6677 1848 6625 1836 6627 1840 6677
$$
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC013-017-047-051-091-135-143-145-012100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0253.110701T1805Z-110701T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-
MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
205 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...
MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO
* UNTIL 500 PM AST
* AT 204 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A LINE
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1849 6677 1848 6625 1836 6627 1840 6677
$$
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
VIC010-012145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0254.110701T1838Z-110701T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
238 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 545 PM AST
* AT 238 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. CONSIDERABLE RAIN REMAINS UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1769 6460 1764 6473 1764 6490 1768 6494
1776 6494 1782 6481 1778 6455 1773 6455
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
VIC010-012145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0254.110701T1838Z-110701T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
238 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX
* UNTIL 545 PM AST
* AT 238 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. CONSIDERABLE RAIN REMAINS UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1769 6460 1764 6473 1764 6490 1768 6494
1776 6494 1782 6481 1778 6455 1773 6455
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC109-020030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0026.110701T1835Z-110702T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PATILLAS PR-
235 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PATILLAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
* UNTIL 830 PM AST
* AT 226 PM AST THE RIVER GAGE ON THE RIO MARIN NEAR PATILLA WAS
READING 11.28 FEET AND ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THIS RIVER AND SMALLER STREAMS IN THE AREA.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1806 6607 1809 6602 1798 6594 1798 6602
$$
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC109-020030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0026.110701T1835Z-110702T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PATILLAS PR-
235 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PATILLAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
* UNTIL 830 PM AST
* AT 226 PM AST THE RIVER GAGE ON THE RIO MARIN NEAR PATILLA WAS
READING 11.28 FEET AND ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THIS RIVER AND SMALLER STREAMS IN THE AREA.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 1806 6607 1809 6602 1798 6594 1798 6602
$$
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC015-025-029-035-037-041-053-057-063-069-077-085-089-095-103-109-
119-123-129-133-151-012215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0255.110701T1911Z-110701T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-
NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
311 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...SALINAS...
SANTA ISABEL...RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 308 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1796 6642 1840 6573 1818 6565 1791 6598
1790 6603
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC015-025-029-035-037-041-053-057-063-069-077-085-089-095-103-109-
119-123-129-133-151-012215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0255.110701T1911Z-110701T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-
NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
311 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...SALINAS...
SANTA ISABEL...RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 308 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1796 6642 1840 6573 1818 6565 1791 6598
1790 6603
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO CUBA
DURING THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. MID LEVELS ARE ONLY DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER AHEAD OF IT AS
FAR WEST AS THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON THE NORTH
COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX. AT THIS TIME
WINDS AND SHOWERS ARE VERIFYING THE WETTER NAM MODEL AND IT IS
FORECASTING PULSES OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH THE WAVE AND IN
THE MOIST FLOW BEHIND IT ON AND OFF THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER AFTER THIS...BUT A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF PUERTO RICO IS UNDER CONSIDERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY UNDER.
CONTINUED POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
STRONGER WINDS AT 3 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRESENT
HAZARDS TO AVIATION. TOPS OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS 30 TO 40
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO 60 THOUSAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 88 / 70 60 20 30
STT 79 88 80 90 / 80 60 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO CUBA
DURING THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. MID LEVELS ARE ONLY DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER AHEAD OF IT AS
FAR WEST AS THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON THE NORTH
COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX. AT THIS TIME
WINDS AND SHOWERS ARE VERIFYING THE WETTER NAM MODEL AND IT IS
FORECASTING PULSES OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH THE WAVE AND IN
THE MOIST FLOW BEHIND IT ON AND OFF THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER AFTER THIS...BUT A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF PUERTO RICO IS UNDER CONSIDERATION.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY UNDER.
CONTINUED POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
STRONGER WINDS AT 3 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRESENT
HAZARDS TO AVIATION. TOPS OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS 30 TO 40
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO 60 THOUSAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 88 / 70 60 20 30
STT 79 88 80 90 / 80 60 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
Flash Flood Watch for U.S VI,Culebra,Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico until Saturday afternoon
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRZ001>004-006-007-011>013-VIZ001-002-020930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0006.110701T1926Z-110702T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...
JAYUYA...PONCE...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
326 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTHEAST...PONCE
AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST AND
VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS.
* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RIVER...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EAST
OF A LINE FROM BAYAMON TO CABO ROJO...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO.
GUT FLOODING IS NOW EXPECTED IN SAINT CROIX AND SOME LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE FLOODED. AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWEST EXTENSIVE URBAN
FLOODING CAN OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRZ001>004-006-007-011>013-VIZ001-002-020930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0006.110701T1926Z-110702T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...
JAYUYA...PONCE...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
326 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTHEAST...PONCE
AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST AND
VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS.
* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RIVER...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EAST
OF A LINE FROM BAYAMON TO CABO ROJO...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO.
GUT FLOODING IS NOW EXPECTED IN SAINT CROIX AND SOME LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE FLOODED. AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWEST EXTENSIVE URBAN
FLOODING CAN OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
Stay safe my friends, the radar is lit up. could you send some of that to those folks in texas I know they could really use it.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather
Those who live in Texas would like to see this in their areas in that state that needs it badly.
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, looks like juicy convection is heading you badly! Keep us informed as usual.-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Carib- CA Weather=Flash Flood Watch for most of PR/U.S VI
Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC015-025-029-037-057-063-069-077-085-095-103-109-129-147-151-
012215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0069.110701T2019Z-110701T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
JUNCOS
GURABO
SAN LORENZO
LAS PIEDRAS
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
CANOVANAS
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA
VIEQUES
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 410 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWEST
AND JUST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
COAST LINE. AS IT MOVES INLAND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1796 6618 1828 6595 1824 6554 1809 6557
1810 6563 1816 6559 1814 6570 1800 6579
1793 6589 1790 6606
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC015-025-029-037-057-063-069-077-085-095-103-109-129-147-151-
012215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0069.110701T2019Z-110701T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
JUNCOS
GURABO
SAN LORENZO
LAS PIEDRAS
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
CANOVANAS
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA
VIEQUES
* UNTIL 615 PM AST
* AT 410 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWEST
AND JUST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
COAST LINE. AS IT MOVES INLAND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1796 6618 1828 6595 1824 6554 1809 6557
1810 6563 1816 6559 1814 6570 1800 6579
1793 6589 1790 6606
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Carib- CA Weather=Flash Flood Watch for most of PR/U.S VI
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC151-021015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0027.110701T2227Z-110702T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YABUCOA PR-
627 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
YABUCOA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
* UNTIL 615 AM AST SATURDAY
* AT 621 PM AST THE RIVER GUAYANES USGS SENSOR INDICATED THAT THE
RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
&&
LAT...LON 1807 6600 1808 6599 1809 6598 1809 6593
1808 6588 1808 6583 1806 6580 1802 6581
1805 6585 1805 6591 1807 6595 1807 6599
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
PRC151-021015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0027.110701T2227Z-110702T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YABUCOA PR-
627 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
YABUCOA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
* UNTIL 615 AM AST SATURDAY
* AT 621 PM AST THE RIVER GUAYANES USGS SENSOR INDICATED THAT THE
RIVER IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.
&&
LAT...LON 1807 6600 1808 6599 1809 6598 1809 6593
1808 6588 1808 6583 1806 6580 1802 6581
1805 6585 1805 6591 1807 6595 1807 6599
$$
RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143881
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Gustywind wrote:What are the weather conditions in your area Cycloneye?
Not raining but is cloudy.However, in SE PR is another story as some rivers are very high and with some more rain expected tonight,that would cause some flooding problems.
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