Global model runs discussion

[HouTXmetro]

FIM is latching onto a potent wave entering the West GOM around July 7th.


Shows it developing and making a track toward the Houston area.

With our luck it will slide east leaving us Hot and Dry...I'm not sold because we are just too far out.

[South Texas Storms]

FIM is latching onto a potent wave entering the West GOM around July 7th.


Shows it developing and making a track toward the Houston area.

With our luck it will slide east leaving us Hot and Dry...I'm sold beacuse we are just too far out.

Unfortunately I totally agree with you. We can't catch a break for any rain.

[lebron23]

GFS shows it again...

[Big O]

GFS shows it again...

Where and when? Can you post the map or maps? In addition to possible "Bret" is the GFS forecasting "Cindy" in the longer range?

[South Texas Storms]

GFS shows it again...

Where? I don't see it on the 12z GFS today. It was there on the 0z run from last night though.

[Dean4Storms]

Still the 12z GFS shows alot of disturbed weather coming up into the Gulf for much of 1st half of July. If that were to verify I can't help but think we see a homegrown system of some sort.

[micktooth]

I know y'all are in the middle of a severe drought, but I have a family reunion in Destin,FL July10-17, so I hope the models don't verify anything that way. After the 17th...have at it! I must say GFS did pretty well with Arlene though.

[djmikey]

So the possible gulf disturbance around the 10th or 11th vanished? What were the models hinting at and are they still seeing anything? I figure since there were only 1-2 post a day to this particular thread, the "future" disturbance may not transpire....Gosh, we need the rain! (You notice i'm trying to find SOME glimmer of hope!"

[Portastorm]

So the possible gulf disturbance around the 10th or 11th vanished? What were the models hinting at and are they still seeing anything? I figure since there were only 1-2 post a day to this particular thread, the "future" disturbance may not transpire....Gosh, we need the rain! (You notice i'm trying to find SOME glimmer of hope!"

You may want to check out this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111064&hilit=

[GCANE]

12Z FIM shifts track east.

[South Texas Storms]

It is a lot weaker too.

[TwisterFanatic]

:uarrow: It is a lot weaker too.

I would definitely not pay attention to the strength of a projected system 10 days out.

[cycloneye]

So far,only the Canadian model is with the EGOM scenario,less than 10 days out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



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[flwxwatcher]

12Z FIM shifts track east.

I have never seen that model before.. where did you find that at??

[x-y-no]

I have never seen that model before.. where did you find that at??

http://fim.noaa.gov/

I know nothing of its skill at forecasting the tropics.

[flwxwatcher]

I have never seen that model before.. where did you find that at??

http://fim.noaa.gov/

I know nothing of its skill at forecasting the tropics.

Thanks for the link.

On another note, looks like the 18Z GFS brings a weak low right up around Florida but the shear looks to high in the GFS for anything to really get going it looks like.

[flwxwatcher]

The CMC still trying to bring a system up around Florida mid- week. Not much love from any other model for this though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Macrocane]

Yeah, and the Canadian is also forecasting a strong system in the EPAC again no other model is doing that so, for the moment I will take it as one of those classic episodes of "The canadian developing every single cloud out there"

[AdamFirst]

The CMC still trying to bring a system up around Florida mid- week. Not much love from any other model for this though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That scenario coming to pass would be an ideal drought buster for Southern Florida. I'm all for it.

[flwxwatcher]

:uarrow: Yeah, and the Canadian is also forecasting a strong system in the EPAC again no other model is doing that so, for the moment I will take it as one of those classic episodes of "The canadian developing every single cloud out there"

Oh I agree, not much support from other models though the EURO did show something in the 0Z run from last night.