Severe weather/tornadoes: July 2011 - Looking ahead

[CrazyC83]

Overall, June was below average for sure, but it had its memorable moments as well.

Now on to July and the peak of the summer. I haven't heard of very many major tornado outbreaks in July. Will this year be extraordinary or par for the course as we get into the second half of the year? If a cold front and a strong trough can break into the summer heat, it could be interesting, but shear is usually a question mark in mid-summer.

Early tropical activity could also come into play as well.

[CrazyC83]

The scary thing is - ONE MORE bad tornado outbreak, the rest of the year, and 2011 moves up to 2nd place in the deadliest year of all time (currently tied for 5th at 537 fatalities with 1896; behind 1925, 1936, 1917 and 1927). However, it is only 15 fatalities away from 1925.

From July to December since 2000, there have been this many fatalities:

2000 - 15 (41 for the year, 36.6% after July 1)
2001 - 18 (40, 45.0%)
2002 - 44 (55, 80.0%)
2003 - 1 (54, 1.9%)
2004 - 19 (36, 52.8%)
2005 - 34 (39, 87.2%)
2006 - 14 (67, 20.9%)
2007 - 7 (81, 8.6%)
2008 - 5 (125, 4.0%)
2009 - 1 (21, 4.8%)
2010 - 15 (45, 33.3%)

11-year rounded average - 16 (55, 29.1%)
2011 projected on numerical pace - 16 (553, 2.9%, 2nd all time)
2011 projected on percentage pace - 156 (693, 29.1%, 2nd all time close to 1925)

[wx247]

I would like some rain here in SW MO but I would be fine if July was tornado free!!!

[CrazyC83]

I would like some rain here in SW MO but I would be fine if July was tornado free!!!

There've been at least 11 so far in July, a couple EF2s and the rest weak. But at least no major outbreaks I hope! The last major July tornado outbreak that I can recall was July 1-2, 1997.

The percentage-average estimate would be a worst-case scenario and would be record-breaking, since AFAIK there has never been an outbreak with a triple-digit death toll after June 30. Although it is certainly not impossible...especially in the late fall months if a similar pattern to April 27 were to emerge in, say, October or November.