Disturbed Weather in Carribbean

[Dean4Storms]

I'm suspicious of the new convection popping near 77W 14N this morning. Clearly if this continues it is in a pretty ideal location with a ridge building overhead just south of Jamaica. I believe that is the area to watch today for any possible development in the near term.

[Sanibel]

The feature is sort of like a weak scattered monsoon trough in early July conditions.

[Nimbus]

There is no model support for anything but the wave should reinforce the monsoonal convection in the area. Looks like the shear isn't very strong and high pressure may be building north of Panama. We have seen the diurnal convection pulse in this area for a couple days but no real persistence. I would have put a 10% chance of development circle on the area but the pros probably see some subsidence or other limiting factors. Looks like the convection near 14N is waning and may shift northwest to south of Jamaica this afternoon.

[floridasun78]

their spain sw carribbean?

[Hurricaneman]

No tropical cyclone from this, but that is quite normal for this time of year

[ronjon]

Ok, grasping at straws here but the 06Z NAM does develop low pressure off the SW FL coast from our tropical wave. 00Z ECM has a weaker reflection moving north in the EGOM. CMC moves vorticity up the FL east coast.

NAM

ECM

CMC

[NDG]

One thing for sure wheter development occurs or not, good bit of moisture from the tropical wave in the Caribbean heading towards FL for this week, enjoy today's "drier" wx.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

Waves are fickle. Infact I think an ULL heading south is taking the moisture east. The NWS barely ever gets waves right. Here's the ULL I'm talking about:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Around 30n 70w heading SW.

[boca]

Any moisture we get is going to come up from the Caribbean due to the ULL in the Southcentral GOM.

[NDG]

Waves are fickle. Infact I think an ULL heading south is taking the moisture east. The NWS barely ever gets waves right. Here's the ULL I'm talking about:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Around 30n 70w heading SW.

That ULL has nothing to do or will not take moisture from the tropical wave in the Caribbean.
Boca is right, the ULL in the GOM is what is going to help bring the moisture to FL over the next few days from the Caribbean in the mid & upper levels.

[ronjon]

Bears Watching?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1244 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE
AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE UPPER PATTER WILL
REMAIN WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS AND BRING IT
NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE OR AS STRONG WITH THIS
LOW. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND PWATS
WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS.
HAVE INCREASED WEDNESDAY POPS INTO THE HIGH END OF CHANCE...CLOUD
COVER AS WELL. WILL NEED TO DO MORE IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH ITS
SURFACE LOW POSITION. ALSO RAISED SKY COVER WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAME
REASONS AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPS. INSTEAD OF THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND ON TUESDAY...THEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

[flwxwatcher]

Ok, grasping at straws here but the 06Z NAM does develop low pressure off the SW FL coast from our tropical wave. 00Z ECM has a weaker reflection moving north in the EGOM. CMC moves vorticity up the FL east coast.

NAM

ECM

CMC

12Z EURO continues hinting at bringing something up into the Eastern Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

A small swirl is in the area.

[ronjon]

Luis, that swirls a mid-level feature that shows up nicely on the 500 mb vort chart. I'll be focusing off the NE coast of Cuba/SE Bahamas as this is where the highest 700 and 850 mb vorticity is now. It's also the area where the few models that develop it (CMC, NAM) originate the low pressure. Some convection there now over Hispanola and north of there but not very consolidated. Things could change in the next few days as upper level winds relax.

850 Vort

SAT

[flwxwatcher]

Luis, that swirls a mid-level feature that shows up nicely on the 500 mb vort chart. I'll be focusing off the NE coast of Cuba/SE Bahamas as this is where the highest 700 and 850 mb vorticity is now. It's also the area where the few models that develop it (CMC, NAM) originate the low pressure. Some convection there now over Hispanola and north of there but not very consolidated. Things could change in the next few days as upper level winds relax.

850 Vort

SAT

One thing I have noticed in the last few runs of the GFS.Though it doesn't do much with this wave right now, the upper low it had been keeping in the eastern Gulf, it now is showing this moving west and winds appear to become more favorable later this week in the Eastern Gulf. It will be interesting to see what if anything does form.

[tailgater]

Luis, that swirls a mid-level feature that shows up nicely on the 500 mb vort chart. I'll be focusing off the NE coast of Cuba/SE Bahamas as this is where the highest 700 and 850 mb vorticity is now. It's also the area where the few models that develop it (CMC, NAM) originate the low pressure. Some convection there now over Hispanola and north of there but not very consolidated. Things could change in the next few days as upper level winds relax.

850 Vort

SAT

Looks like some low level rotation on last few visible frames in the GOH but that should be moving over the Yuctan fairly soon.

[Dean4Storms]

Luis, that swirls a mid-level feature that shows up nicely on the 500 mb vort chart. I'll be focusing off the NE coast of Cuba/SE Bahamas as this is where the highest 700 and 850 mb vorticity is now. It's also the area where the few models that develop it (CMC, NAM) originate the low pressure. Some convection there now over Hispanola and north of there but not very consolidated. Things could change in the next few days as upper level winds relax.

850 Vort

SAT

Won't see anything there. If it develops anywhere it will be in the eastern GOM once the low meanders over south Florida into the Gulf. But I think chances are 1%.

[jinftl]

From his blog yesterday, Dr. Jeff Masters wrote:

"The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 10."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1838

It wouldn't be surprising...or unusual...to see such an assessment for the next few weeks. But then....

[StarmanHDB]

I'm far from being any type of wx expert (FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR), but I definitely get into observing WX phenomena. That said, will someone please explain to me what I am currently observing on the vis sat over the Turks and Caicos near 22N/71W? As I told a buddy who knows more, it looks like 2-3 areas of convection are attempting to gel into a sort of center. I know that nothing serious is forecast, but it does look interesting.

[bamajammer4eva]

From his blog yesterday, Dr. Jeff Masters wrote:

"The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 10."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1838

It wouldn't be surprising...or unusual...to see such an assessment for the next few weeks. But then....

This guy from http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/ seems to think there is at least a chance by Friday.



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