Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

PRC069-085-103-119-151-040000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0262.110703T2110Z-110704T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
510 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...NAGUABO...HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 507 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED LINES OF HEAVY RAIN
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE EAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST...LOCAL HEAVY BUT BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH
POSSIBLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1811 6593 1831 6581 1821 6566 1805 6581

$$

RM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[knotimpaired]

This is once again when we become part of the Carib community, This past wave have given us much needed rain for our tomatoes, dill, chives, green peppers, parsley and numerous other herbs.

But this is not why I am writing this.

My daughter will be getting married here on April 21, 2012 and we would like to charter a cat that they can cruise for a week that has a Capt and Chef.

We are accepting bids at kk@playacofi.net for 8 days of your time. First class provisions and wines will be provided by us.

If any of you out there can find the time please email us at the above address. Your time will only be about 5 days but we will consider traveling time.

We will also post this on Storm 2k.

K

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Warning extended

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VIC010-040400-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-110704T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING ISLAND

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 746 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN MOVING
TOWARDS THE WARNED AREA. THIS RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL
THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF
GUTS AND ROADWAYS ACROSS SAINT CROIX. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 1768 6459 1764 6473 1764 6490 1768 6494
1781 6489 1781 6482 1776 6455

$$

07

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Sad news caused by the bad weather and that is a small plane with 5 members of a family has vanished in the SE part of the island. Aparently,they found one of the bodies in the coast.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 22596.html

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 22613.html

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Watch extended until 6 AM AST

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-041000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110704T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
1016 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY

* DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOIL ACROSS THE REGION IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

* AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING RAPID RIVER RISES ON
MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND GUTS IS
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BUT
BE READY TO ACT WITHOUT WARNING AS RADAR DATA IS NOT BEING RECEIVED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON A CONSISTENT BASIS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

REMEMBER...YOU CAN REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU MAY SAVE SOMEONES LIFE.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 PM AST SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE PELTED AGAIN WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES COVER THE LOCAL AREA AS REFLECTED BY THE SJU 00Z
SOUNDING BUT LATEST GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE USVI AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO. NAM12 MODEL IN AGREEMENT WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS EAST PR BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED
EVENING FORECAST GRID TO REFLECT ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS USVI AND
CARIB WATERS WITH LESSER ACTIVITY OVER PR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
GRIDS FOR MONDAY REFLECT DRYING TREND FOR USVI WHILE ACTIVE
WEATHER STILL EXPECTED FOR PR DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
EXPECTED AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...TJPS AND TJMZ
THROUGH 04/16Z. MVFR TO OCNL IFR EXPECTED VCNY TJNR EASTWARD TO
USVI AND LEEWARDS UNTIL 04/10Z DUE TO NMRS SHOWERS AND SCAT
TSTMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 35 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS USVI TNCM
AND TKPK BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES FROM THE EAST. VCNTY
PUERTO RICO AFT 04/15Z CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR
DUE TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT RETROGRADING AND RE-ALIGNING TUTT TO OUR
NORTH AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...
ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AROUND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED LOCALLY BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND THEN GENERALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...IT APPEARS
THAT A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL
INDUCE A MOIST SURGE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 04/17Z AND 04/22Z...IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 89 77 / 40 20 20 30
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Hi! Slightly cooler than normal highs were registered yesterday in most of Central America, the lows were near normal in most of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.8°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (68.2°F) Coolest since April 28.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.5°C (53.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (72.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (61.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.7°C (71.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (75.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.2°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.7°C (78.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.2°C (64.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.0°C (84.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.2°C (92.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.8°C (81.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.3°C (88.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.6°C (87.8°F) Coolest since June 3.
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (73.8°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1151 AM AST MON JUL 4 2011

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE PWAT VALUES DECREASED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS AND MARGINAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TO INDUCE AGAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS TIME MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
INDICATING THAT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE FIST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 04/18Z AND
04/22Z...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[dixiebreeze]

Does anyone have a two to three week outlook for the Virgin Islands area? My granddaughter will be on a sailing trip there starting July 18 with the Navy JROTC. She's 15. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have a two to three week outlook for the Virgin Islands area? My granddaughter will be on a sailing trip there starting July 18 with the Navy JROTC. She's 15. Thanks.

I am in Puerto Rico,but the only guide that one can look at is the long range GFS model runs,and so far by the 18th,no tropical cyclones are shown near the U.S Virgin Islands or British Virgin Islands.However,we know that long range runs are not very good to follow,but as time drows closer,it will be better to see how not only GFS ,but the other models,what they have on the 18th.In terms of the general weather,is much more difficult to pinpoint how the weather will be on that date and again,we have to let a few days pass to see how are the weather conditions closer to the 18th,as tropical waves normally move thru the area within 3-4 days intervals.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you Cycloneeye, I'll inquire again a bit closer to her time of departure.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO FLORIDA AND CUBA BY FRIDAY. WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. IT HANGS UP JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH.

AT MID LEVELS...A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 24 N 50 W WEAKENS AND REFORMS
INTO A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY
RESULTING IN A WEAK AND SLOW BEGINNING TO CONVECTION OVER PUERTO
RICO AND ALMOST NOTHING IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MODELS INDICATE THAT DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO PASS SEEMS TO BE TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND EFFECTS HERE MAY BE LIMITED...
NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THOSE LOOKING FOR MUCH DRIER WEATHER HOWEVER MAY BE
DISAPPOINTED. ONLY THE NAM PULLS PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.8
INCHES OVER SAN JUAN DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THEN ONLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MID LEVELS DO DRY
CONSIDERABLY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STIFLED SOMEWHAT UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITION ACROSS TIST AND TISX OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TJMZ AND
TJBQ...BETWEEN 05/18Z AND 05/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE VARIATION DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY AND WILL DRIVE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OPEN WATERS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 89 79 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST MON JUL 4 2011

.UPDATE...DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE EAST ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED TODAY AND DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE FORECASTS SHOWED A QUICK END TO
THEM BY 600 PM AND ONLY NEEDED A REFRESH OF THE WORDING TO BRING
THEM UP TO DATE...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST PR
TONIGHT WAS LOWERED JUST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POES SATELLITE SOUNDINGS BY 18Z ALREADY SHOWED THAT
THE 2.24 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 12Z SJU RAOB HAD DROPPED
TO 1.6 INCHES OR SO WITH MORE DRY ADVECTION STILL COMING. THE LONG
TRAJECTORY STREAMERS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES APPARENTLY HELPED
MIX THE DRY AIR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXCEPT THAT WAS NOT
REALLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
LOW. NOW COOLING IN EVENING WILL ENSURE THAT ANY CONVECTION WE GET
TONIGHT WILL BE SHALLOW AND FOCUSSED MAINLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SINCE
ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR VAD THE WINDS BELOW 12 KFT ARE STILL
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY TO TAFS IN THE
UPCOMING 00Z ISSUANCES. THOUGH STREAMING CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
REQUIRE CONSIDERATION THROUGH THE EVENING THEY CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO NOT BE FOCUSSED MUCH ON THE TAF SITES AND ANY MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE CLOUDS WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS SURFACE TO 20 KFT TO CONTINUE 20
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TUE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...STILL EXPECT A RETROGRADING AND RE-ALIGNING TUTT
TO OUR NORTH AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH
DAY. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL INDUCE A MOIST SURGE
WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AND THEN PROBABLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...FOLLOWED RATHER QUICKLY BY A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST
05/17Z. AFTERWARDS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE PSBL...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ...BTWN 05/17Z AND
05/21Z...IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN 7 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THURSDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 20
STT 89 79 89 80 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL MAY
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL ISLAND AND EL YUNQUE. EL YUNQUE
CU LINE AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...GENERATING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.

AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOCALLY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STILL EXPECT
DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 05/22Z ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TJMZ AND
TJBQ...BETWEEN 06/18Z AND 06/22Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AFTER THURSDAY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION...GENERATING A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 89 80 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST TUE JUL 5 2011

.UPDATE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC...AND AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWER A SLOT OF DRIER AIR JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
MOST OF CLOUDINESS DUE TO SPILL OVER OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AS WELL AS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY MORNING...
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BUT MAINLY LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT SOME PERIPHERAL
MOISTURE TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TISX. LATEST 06/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY
EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing shower activity for the Eastern Caribbean starting today,so let's prepare for that and have the umbrellas ready.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY TODAY...AS TUTT CONTINUES TO
RE-ALIGN AND BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN REMAINS THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND. STILL EXPECT
TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND DEEP MOISTURE SURGE
TO AFFECT THE FA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY. BUT...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A LOW
TO MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL INDUCE A
DEEP MOIST SURGE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
GOOD 850-700 MB THETA E ADVECTION DURING THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT THETA E RIDGING ALIGNING ACROSS
THE FA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EXPECT THIS DEEP MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING...FAVORABLE VENTILATION
FROM THE RE-POSITIONING TUTT AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A
SOMEWHAT EXPLOSIVE ROUND OF CONVECTION...WITH CLUSTERS AND BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT...MAINLY DUE TO FAST CELL MOTION
AGAIN...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH OR RIVER
FLOODING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DWINDLING.

FOR LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RATHER SUBTLY AND AFTER BRIEF
"DRYING" LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MAY REMAIN
JUST TO OUR SOUTH...TO PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY...AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE PATTERN IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS EACH DAY...TO
PRODUCE SOME DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN
PASSING SHRA THROUGH AT LEAST 06/16Z. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TJMZ AND
TJBQ...BETWEEN 06/17Z AND 06/21Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT START
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BORDERLINE
SITUATION AND BEGINNING IN THE THIRD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 20 20 60 60
STT 89 80 87 77 / 30 30 50 50

[Macrocane]

Hi! The high seismic activity continues in El Salvador 6 earthquakes have been felt since yesterday, 2 of them occurred near Santa Ana volcano in the west part of the country, 2 more occurred offshore in the subduction zone, and the other 2 in the Gulf of Fonseca. In total since July 1 there have been:
-10 quakes near Conchagua volcano, in the Gulf of Fonseca.
-4 in the subduction zone
-2 near Santa Ana volcano

That totals 16 earthquakes in 6 days Thankfully no damages have been reported. It's important to know that Conchagua and Santa Ana quakes have been felt only in the areas near the epicenter but the subduction quakes have been felt in most of the country. More info about magnitudes, intensities, depth, etc, here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2136319#p2136319