Upcoming week - July 5-10

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Let me first say, that I have made a HUGE step towards getting rid of that monkey on my back that is getting the timing right for the development of a tropical cyclone. I predicted development of a tropical depression and storm both to happen on June 28…and it happened right then. For anyone who recalls, I even had June 28 pegged in the previous prediction! Now I have to think, did I just get lucky or am I actually getting better at that?

That’s because beyond that, I had some issues. I predicted Arlene would have 24-36 hours over water and would reach maximum winds of about 45-50 mph. Well, it spent a little longer than that over water, and got to 65 mph. The intensity would have been wrong anyway even inside the window as it did reach 60 mph, but the timing of landfall hurt it a little more. That said, the landfall location was correct near Tampico, and the rainfall threat and location going up towards Monterrey was also well-executed. But I also underestimated the threat, as its rains did make it further west a bit. Lastly, dissipation occurred a little slower than I anticipated, probably due to being a stronger storm at landfall than predicted.

I was correct in predicting no other tropical cyclone activity. And what was that about something off Africa again?

Overall, my discrepancies with Arlene were unfortunately there, though a bit less so than it may have been last year. This storm showed I am making progress, but I still have a bit more to go. Then again, this was a mildly tough prediction to get right, with many models also underestimating this storm. Overall I give myself a B- for this past week.

So how does this new week look? Here we go!

Current situation and models

There is one area in the Caribbean that some models are trying to turn into something that would eventually be steered by an upper level low toward Florida later in the week. However, while some models are saying one thing like the Canadian, other models like the Euro are calling it little more than a piece of energy. Indeed most pro mets seem to think this week is looking pretty quiet, which would likely indicate very little other than a rainfall threat would come out of this thing. However, if something were to develop, it would most likely be in either the western Caribbean or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, nothing else appears to be threatening to develop this upcoming week.

Recent history

The following storms have developed between July 5-10 since 1960:

Abby in 1960
Arlene in 1971
Bob in 1979
Barry in 1989
Barry in 1995
Bertha in 1996
Claudette in 2003
Cindy in 2005
Dennis in 2005

Of these nine storms, a surprising six would go on to become hurricanes. Also, go ahead and lump Bertha of 2008 as having just developed prior to this week. It also went on to become a hurricane! 2005 clearly did not merely skew the number of hurricanes per named storms for this upcoming week. Still, with ten developing storms for this upcoming week since 1960, that’s still one about every five years, so the odds still aren’t that great. Also, most of the ones that were hurricanes weren’t so for very long, except for the two Bertha’s and Dennis, which became major hurricanes.

Where did each storm develop? Abby, Claudette, and Dennis all formed in the eastern Caribbean and tracked westward for a while (except Dennis turned northwest quickly after that). All of the these three storms went on to become hurricanes eventually. Bob and Cindy formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico, hit southern Louisiana, and both too became minimal hurricanes before their landfalls. 1989 Barry and the two Bertha’s formed off the coast of Africa, and only Barry failed to become a hurricane as it quickly curved northwest. The two Bertha’s, meanwhile, continued further west over warm waters, allowing them to strengthen. Finally, Arlene and 1995 Barry formed from frontal lows off the East Coast, and failed to become hurricanes.

However, none of these storms developed in the western Caribbean this upcoming week.

So what does this all tell us?

The chances aren’t great, but if that Caribbean disturbance were to develop, it could surprise some people in intensity. But the reliable models like the Euro aren’t that keen on development, and neither are most pro mets. Also, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico would be the more likely area for development of this thing, and with a track towards Florida, there may be less time than there was for Bob and Cindy to really get going, as both became hurricanes at about the last possible moment.

The Prediction

I have to agree with the reliable models and the pro mets on this one. I’m just not seeing the development potential for this disturbance during this upcoming week, though a rain threat in the western Caribbean and Florida would not surprise me. I predict no tropical cyclone development this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

Your forecast is close to what im thinking, things are a little hostile in the atlantic right now

[hurricanehunter69]

Not bad! I look forward to your postings! Your reflections on past tropical activity I find particularly interesting. Keep up the good work and continue to be inovative.

[Ptarmigan]

The Atlantic is not too favorable at this time. It would be nice to get rain though.

[MGC]

Lots of ULL causing shear. Only place that looks OK is the far eastern Atlantic but it is a bit too early there. I'm betting we can take the rest of the week off from watching the tropics......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Agreed. I think we have a quiet stretch ahead in the tropics.

[Andrew92]

Thanks for the comments you guys! It is always fascinating too to look back at what happened in history for the days ahead.

It was very interesting to find out how many storms that developed this week would go on to become hurricanes. You could see that happening beginning in about mid-August or sometime, but in early July?

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

And it's time to evaluate.

Last week I predicted no tropical cyclone development, even with a disturbance heading into the western Caribbean, then towards Florida. That disturbance followed the path about exactly as I predicted, and also never developed. Overall, last week was not too challenging, but for nailing it down with no tropical cyclone development, my grade for last week is an A.

New week to be posted shortly.

-Andrew92