Strong Wave approaching Islands

[Ivanhater]

A strong wave is currently approaching the Islands. It is currently at a low latitude so developent is not likely in the short term. However, the 12z GFS show this wave getting interesting down the road once in the Western Gulf. The 850mb vort shows up nicely.






12z Canadian shows the strong wave nearing the Islands. It does not develop it much but shows a pattern that would be open for the Gulf if it did develop. All in all, this wave could get interesting in the days ahead.

[Ivanhater]

The 00z Euro shows it in the BOC

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[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I just noticed this wave approaching the islands. If it can gain a little latitude like the 12z GFS is showing at 192 hours then this could possibly have a chance to develop.

[wxman57]

The wave is actually west of that area of thunderstorms - passing 50W now. The storms are part of the ITCZ in the wake of the wave. It appears the moisture will move right into South America.

[LaBreeze]

Is there any belief that this will even make it into the GOM? Looks like it will rain itself out over S. America.

[Ivanhater]

Is there any belief that this will even make it into the GOM? Looks like it will rain itself out over S. America.

The 12z GFS shows the vorticity max with this wave moving north of the S.A coast and at 192 hours the wave is entering the southern Gulf



By 72 hours you can see the wave moving north of the coast..it continues into the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

It's the Nogaps but the 12z run also develops this wave and hits Florida

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[stormreader]

Pretty hefty area of convection associated with this wave (even if some of it might still be associated with the ITCZ as WXman points out). But as I posted in another thread I think things seem earlier than usual (ahead of schedule).

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro stronger with this wave..into the BOC

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[NDG]

12z Euro stronger with this wave..into the BOC

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Very similar to its yesterday's 12z run.

[LaBreeze]

12z Euro stronger with this wave..into the BOC

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... and then into old Mexico? Just wondering.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, into Mexico...

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah, into Mexico...

Does it show a track similar to that of Arlene?

[GCANE]

12Z FIM has it running thru the Yucatan Channel into the GOM.

At this point, TX or LA could be at risk.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011070612&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[ROCK]

whats is the FIM? Never heard of this model before. Is it experimental?

very robust wave with model support. Needs to be watched as it could be our next player.

[HurricaneBrain]

This needs to be watched!

[HurricaneBrain]

You know something's up when the big time models all agree on some sort of development in the long-term.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...72 hours

[TheBurn]

[HurricaneBrain]

We should be seeing a code yellow soon from the NHC.