Strong Wave approaching Islands

[South Texas Storms]

Ivan did it get torn apart by wind shear in the 18z GFS? I don't see it anymore at 144 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan did it get torn apart by wind shear in the 18z GFS? I don't see it anymore at 144 hours.

Similar to the 12z GFS so far...remember the 12z GFS never fully developed this but did show a strong wave moving into the Gulf.

Through 144 hours...that is the wave south of Cuba

[South Texas Storms]

Oh yeah I still see it on the model now. It shows it just east of the Yucatan at 156 hours.

[Ivanhater]

174 hours...Yucatan channel/tip of Yucatan

[cycloneye]

We should be seeing a code yellow soon from the NHC.

No mention at 8 PM TWO.

[HurricaneBrain]

We should be seeing a code yellow soon from the NHC.

No mention at 8 PM TWO.

They're probably going to wait a few days before they mention it.

[Ivanhater]

Shows up nicely

[South Texas Storms]

So how many models now show this possibly developing in about a week? GFS, Euro, NOGAPS, am I right? What about the CMC?

[Macrocane]

I don't think they're developing it yet, they're only showing a decent low pressure system although things may change in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

If this wave persists with convection for the next 24 hours,I would not be surprised to see invest 96L up.

[Rgv20]

I put up this post yesterday on Global Model Runs Discussion http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=2180 and now the GFS and ECMWF trying to hint on something getting going in the Caribbean.

The ECMWF and GFS do not forecast any tropical development in the longer range but looking at the pattern setting up from next Tuesday (July12) thru Friday (July15) something could possibly develop in the Caribbean. Normally this time of year the Ridge (ex. 588mb height) would extend all the way south to the Caribbean normally providing subsidence.



And supporting this idea would be the MJO still going strong on that time frame.

ECMWF Ensembles


GEFS


Obviously nothing to get excited about but just something to watch in the coming days.

[ROCK]

0z GFS shows the wave at 60hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060l.gif

[HurricaneBrain]

Maybe code yellow at 1 AM. I'm thinking tomorrow they will give it 10-20%

[HurricaneBrain]

Anyone remember Invest 91 last year? It was in the same area this time of year and had a 70% chance of developing.

[HurricaneBrain]

No mention.

[stormreader]

RGV mentioned that normally the ridge would extend further south at this time of year and that you would see quite a bit more subsidence in the Carribean. I believe that he is right. If you look at the Carribean area right now you see an enormous amount of convection. I think its very early to be seeing this.

[GCANE]

7N 49W showing good MIMIC-TPW convergence.

Big question if it can clear the SA coast.

All models except CMC say yes. At least CMC now acknowledges its existence.

Very nice UL Outflow / Anti-cyclone.

Good PV definition at 320K, 850 & 700mb. Clear above.

ASCAT does not show anything on the surface yet.

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TheBurn]

[Ivanhater]

On the map! I honestly thought they would have waited but it does look good this morning

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