WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

#1 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 9:02 pm

Suprise! Suprise! A BRAND NEW INVEST!! Not like we haven't had one of these lately...lol Anyways Just popped up though so there is no photo and no corrdinates so I will post them as soon as it finished being loaded.

#2 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 9:34 pm

located: 20N 165E

WELL East of Guam..this one will have to watch a few days before it gets close to anything

#3 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:00 pm

By The way for those keeping count this is ivest 7 in 9 days..lol oh and I can;t post the photo hear sorry. If it isn't up when I get home I will post it.

#4 Postby **supercane** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:07 pm

Close to Wake.
20110707.0301.mtsat2.x.vis1km.90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-202N-1655E.100pc.jpg

From NWS Guam's latest Satellite Interpretation Message:
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM 20N161E TO BEYOND
25N AT 169E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT NEAR WAKE ISLAND BETWEEN 18N AND 24N FROM 161E TO 173E.

#5 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Jul 07, 2011 6:55 pm

I am going to go on a limb here and with 94w being a low I am going to guess this one will be upraded to a low today. I am just syaing. It is just a guess. We will see.

dexterlabio · #6 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:14 am

This is a bit closer to the area hinted by ECMWF runs where an intense and large TC will emerge. Long range forecast again so there's a chance that it won't really happen, unless if the next runs will be consistently showing this scenario, thus a higher certainty.

It seems that the competition among the storms in the WPAC is now all about the size. Dang. Like Meari, the previous one.

Well I swore that I won't be coming here unless a cyclone develop from the thick monsoon trough present in the PI sea. I guess I swallowed up my words. :lol:

#7 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:16 am

That is a monster how many people would feel some sort of this storm if it is true looks like it would be bad for either Okinawa or Tawain!

dexterlabio · #8 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:29 am

StormingB81 wrote:That is a monster how many people would feel some sort of this storm if it is true looks like it would be bad for either Okinawa or Tawain!

I dunno but that run creeps me out. If that really happen, it is somewhat similar to the films about insanely large and strong hurricanes. Talk about The Day After Tomorrow. lol. :lol:

Surely no one would want to get caught inside that kind of storm....except for our passionate storm hunters around here. :wink:

#9 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:32 am

this would be a multi day storm for sure

#10 Postby **ManilaTC** » Fri Jul 08, 2011 6:23 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:That is a monster how many people would feel some sort of this storm if it is true looks like it would be bad for either Okinawa or Tawain!

I dunno but that run creeps me out. If that really happen, it is somewhat similar to the films about insanely large and strong hurricanes. Talk about The Day After Tomorrow. lol. Surely no one would want to get caught inside that kind of storm....except for our passionate storm hunters around here.

What the... that thing looks huge. Is it going to beat Tip in size?

#11 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 12:59 pm

First mention of this system by JTWC in a special Significant Tropical Weather Advisory:
ABPW10 PGTW 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091530Z-100600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.0N
124.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 123.8E,
<snip>
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.5N 160.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A RECENT ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS OVER THE SYSTEM SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO A
LOW AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO A LOW.//
NNNN

JMA 12Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 17N 156E WEST SLOWLY.

#12 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 2:04 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.5N 160.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A RECENT ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS OVER THE SYSTEM SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

KWT · #13 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 3:41 pm

ECM is oretty agressive on its 12z run and develops this into a clear system about 48-72hrs time.

Seems quite far north but the ECM is keen for it to get pretty far west in the end...

#14 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 4:18 pm

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 18N 155E WEST SLOWLY.

Pretty good model support all around for this, not only from ECMWF. 12Z model plots including GFS, UKMET, CMC, and NOGAPS:

and the 12Z Euro valid a week from now:

KWT · #15 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 5:46 pm

Yep the models are in fairly good agreement with regards to this system, though the ECM is the strongest out of all of them from what I've seen.

#16 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 7:23 pm

Not too shabby. Latest vis:

First SAB satellite bulletin out with T1.5, JTWC still at T1.0:
TXPQ26 KNES 092220
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 09/2032Z
C. 17.8N
D. 158.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

949
TPPN11 PGTW 100033
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)
B. 09/2332Z
C. 17.4N
D. 159.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0
G. VIS/IR
H. REMARKS: 40A/SBC. .20 WRAP YIELDED A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

And AFD from NWS Tiyan:
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH HAS RETREATED NORTH OF 20N...ALLOWING A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ORIGINATED FROM A TUTT CELL NEAR WAKE ISLAND
TO INTENSIFY AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO EASTERN MICRONESIA.
IN RESPONSE SURFACE WINDS OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE BEING DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION...FORMING A SURFACE TROUGH CURVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION THRU POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TO THE
EQUATOR. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS
FEEDING TOWARD THE CIRCULATION HAVE CREATED A BELT OF CONVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU
THIS EVENING. IF THIS CONVECTION BUILDS WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE LATER
TODAY...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE ALSO.
FARTHER EAST...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAVE CAUSED A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ALONG 6N STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS TO WELL BEYOND THE DATE LINE. LACKING STRONG CONVERGENCE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY CONCENTRATE ALONG THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THE CIRCULATION AND ITS RELATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WESTWARD...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS COULD
TRIGGER PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR ALL THE FORECAST LOCATIONS BUT IT
WILL BE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE ONSET OF THESE SHOWERS AT THIS
POINT.

#17 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 7:58 pm

Looking pretty good..

phwxenthusiast · #18 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 8:11 pm

indeed it does! i'll go out on a limb here and say this might be a TD as early as tonight, Philippine Time... just my personal thoughts...

#19 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 8:25 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:indeed it does! i'll go out on a limb here and say this might be a TD as early as tonight, Philippine Time... just my personal thoughts...

I was thinking the same if not atleast a TCFA!

#20 Postby **supercane** » Sat Jul 09, 2011 9:39 pm

JMA 00Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 18N 155E WNW SLOWLY.

Latest ASCAT shows low but generally weak winds:

Combination of relatively high pressure, weak winds, and low Dvorak classifications means upgrade to TD may take a while, although it is developing. I suspect that JTWC may raise its development chances to medium with the next Significant Tropical Weather Outlook.

WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

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