ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[tailgater]

40% sounds about right. We all saw the weak rotation that is nearly stationary and the conditions are forecast to become somewhat better but as they are now 96L is deeping slowly so if they do get better as per the forecast why wouldn't it deepen a little more. He also said it could be SUB tropical.
the nearest Bouy

[psyclone]

i'm surprised they bumped this to 40% too. it's a hot mess despite the pressure falls. i don't think there's much difference for land dwellers between a vigorous disturbance and a depression or even a minimal storm. it's wet and it will remain so. what a difference a couple of weeks makes...we're waterlogged here and frogs are out hopping everywhere. the rainy season is making up for lost time.

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm going to trust the NHC professionals with their development chances.

[Macrocane]

With all due respect Wxman, when pre-Arlene jumped to a 50% chance of developing you said the same exact thing about Stacey. Turns out Stacey was right as the next day it was already developing into a tropical depression.

Not saying this will be the same scenario, but I don't think the chances have anything to do with who is forecasting.

Totally agree, I personally don't think it will develop but I can see why the NHC jumped up to 40% and it's not because of the forecaster but for the reasons stated on the TWO.

[psyclone]

I'm going to trust the NHC professionals with their development chances.

the professionals are still 3 to 2 in favor of no development on their most recent assessment. naturally since i'm close to and in the potential path of this (assuming it heads north or northeast) i'm paying attention but not the least bit concerned.

[MGC]

Forecaster Stewart is a bit more enthusiastic than I am and I agree with 57 that 96L has gained little in organization today. However, any unexpected change in the ULL currenly holding back 96L could kick the door open to more robust development. Looks to me that the LLCC has been stationary most of the day.....MGC

[HurricaneBrain]

I'm going to trust the NHC professionals with their development chances.

the professionals are still 3 to 2 in favor of no development on their most recent assessment. naturally since i'm close to and in the potential path of this (assuming it heads north or northeast) i'm paying attention but not the least bit concerned.

I personally don't think this will develop, but like I said I'm going to trust the professionals because this very well could turn into something.

[NDG]

I think any models that brings 96L inland Saturday morning, like tonight's SHIPS model, are day dreaming when the system has barely moved in 12 hrs.
Tonight's a blend of BAMM & BAMS has my consideration, meaning landfall around midnight Saturday night, if not later.
The longer time it stays over water on Saturday the greater the chance of 96L becoming a TD or TS as the ULL moves away by then.

[wxman57]

Pressures are down 1 to 1.5mb across the entire Gulf from Texas to Florida, but that doesn't mean the disturbance is better organized. Convection is just about all gone now, and winds are down in the eastern Gulf. It's hard to tell at night, but it looks like that weak LLC may have come apart in the last 2-3 hours.

Take a look for yourselves. First shot is from 10am, the one below that is current. No comparison whatsoever. It was better organized this morning by far. Surface obs confirm the weakening winds in the eastern Gulf. 30-40 kts of shear presently. Shear drops only to about 25-30 kts Saturday, still way high. I don't think there will be anything there to make any landfall on Saturday.

10am today


9:30pm this evening:

[Rgv20]

In my opinion the NHC is just being cautious due to its proximity to land.

Anyway this mess in the Eastern Gulf is bringing some rain and promises to leave some more beneficial rains to the whole state of Florida

[psyclone]

it does look terrible right now. but there is a plume of welcome moisture pouring over florida. in the meantime we'll see if this can burst any new convection overnight. absent that, those 40% development probs could prove fleeting.

[Sanibel]

Steady light warm wind here like something is developing. Clear patches with moon visible. Persistent naked spiral under ULL shear.

[tailgater]

WXman 57 said "Pressures are down 1 to 1.5mb across the entire Gulf from Texas to Florida, but that doesn't mean the disturbance is better organized. Convection is just about all gone now, and winds are down in the eastern Gulf."
Yeah I certain can't argue that.
Here's a pretty good night time look at the lower clouds.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm hoping the sun can break through for a few hours to heat the ground and throw up some serious storms to add to the mix. It's crazy pwats!

[ROCK]

Nothing to look at here attm....the LLC or whats left of it looks to have spun apart thanks to the ULL...I never thought this had a chance with the minimal model support.

[psdstu]

C'mon panhandle path! We so need a good soaking storm right now.

Ain't that the truth!!!

I hope it doesn't send all the rain to the East of us........... sigh........

[LaBreeze]

Nothing to look at here attm....the LLC or whats left of it looks to have spun apart thanks to the ULL...I never thought this had a chance with the minimal model support.

This is sort of what I was thinking ~ that the LLC would be adversely affected by the ULL. Do LLC follow the lead of ULL's in their movement or is there no pattern to this whatsoever? Glad that Florida is getting some much needed rain.

[ROCK]

Nothing to look at here attm....the LLC or whats left of it looks to have spun apart thanks to the ULL...I never thought this had a chance with the minimal model support.

This is sort of what I was thinking ~ that the LLC would be adversely affected by the ULL. Do LLC follow the lead of ULL's in their movement or is there no pattern to this whatsoever? Glad that Florida is getting some much needed rain.

I have seen many a case where we would get a LLC to form in the wake of a ULL. typically the ULL like this one would adversely affect any developement unless it moves away enough to help vent...all its doing now is shearing it apart...that is one strong ULL....I know,, I just got in from NYC and flew through a bunch of rain and a very high cloud deck ceiling. It was a bumpy ride....

[LaBreeze]

Nothing to look at here attm....the LLC or whats left of it looks to have spun apart thanks to the ULL...I never thought this had a chance with the minimal model support.

This is sort of what I was thinking ~ that the LLC would be adversely affected by the ULL. Do LLC follow the lead of ULL's in their movement or is there no pattern to this whatsoever? Glad that Florida is getting some much needed rain.

I have seen many a case where we would get a LLC to form in the wake of a ULL. typically the ULL like this one would adversely affect any developement unless it moves away enough to help vent...all its doing now is shearing it apart...that is one strong ULL....I know,, I just got in from NYC and flew through a bunch of rain and a very high cloud deck ceiling. It was a bumpy ride....

Good to have the rain ~ huh, Rock, even though it was a bumpy ride home.

[Extratropical94]

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.