ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[KWT]

Well back down to 30%, I suspect this one isn't going to develop now given what it looks like.

[NDG]

The weak low level circulation that 96L had yesterday is much harder to find this morning, it looks it has opened up to a trough once again, at least for now.
If there is still one, is located near 25.N & 86.5W.
BTW, pressures have continued to lower in the GOM, true that it is through out most of the gulf, but lowest pressure are still in the vicinity of the low pressure center or trough.

[GCANE]

Temperature profile reveals that this is most likely becoming a hybrid / sub-tropical system.

850mb vorticity has become less organized since yesterday.

No deep convection near the LLC during DMAX.

[tolakram]

Shear has really dropped off since yesterday.



Something to keep an eye on IMO, might be why they went with 40% then down to 30% when convection died.

[NDG]

Chances back down to 10% and I agree, it has become an elongated trough of low pressure, may not have the closed low that it had yesterday morning.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

[wxman57]

Shear has really dropped off since yesterday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

Something to keep an eye on IMO, might be why they went with 40% then down to 30% when convection died.

That graphic still shows 30 kts of shear over the system, and increasing shear in its path. Development chances close to zero.

[tailgater]

It certainly looks a mess this morning the obs along the northeastern GOM are mostly reporting light WESTERLY winds. Buoy 42003 is reporting southerly winds.

[NDG]

I can still see a weak surface vorticity located near 26N & 86.5W, but very weak.

[caneman]

Been pouring rain since last night here in the Tampa Bay area with quite a bit of wind. Very tropical.

[NDG]

Hmm, looking at surface observations and vis sat loop perhaps a stronger surface circulation is developing NW or NNW of Tampa Bay, but running out of water if indeed we are seeing a new surface circulation developing.

Edit: Actually, just west of Cedar Key.

[wxman57]

Hmm, looking at surface observations and vis sat loop perhaps a stronger surface circulation is developing NW or NNW of Tampa Bay, but running out of water if indeed we are seeing a new surface circulation developing.

Edit: Actually, just west of Cedar Key.

Obs do support a surface circulation near 28.9N/84W. It'll be moving inland soon, though. Sort of looks like a frontal boundary across the NE Gulf:

[tailgater]

Hmm, looking at surface observations and vis sat loop perhaps a stronger surface circulation is developing NW or NNW of Tampa Bay, but running out of water if indeed we are seeing a new surface circulation developing.

Edit: Actually, just west of Cedar Key.

Yeah fairly clear on radar moving NE and all most on shore now,might reach the Atlantic side of FLA./GA. before it falls apart.
Good catch NDG

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al962011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107081250
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[NDG]

Too bad the new circulation west of Cedar Key is running out of water soon, is in a little better UL conditions.

[ronjon]

I agree with NDG and wxman57s assessment - weak low pressure has formed along the trough axis in the NE GOM. I don't see a whole lot of movement so I wouldn't write it off so quick. I am receiving heavy rain squalls all morning along the western Hernando County coast. It probably won't amount to much, but if it sits and spins for 24 hrs, who knows? I'll update my rainfall since yesterday later on but I'm close to 3 inches now over the last 18 hrs.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[Janie2006]

As I said earlier, I'll take what I can get over here..... a trough of low pressure can do quite nicely for alleviating (to a small extent) a prolonged drought. Showers generated by the trough moving along the coast from Panama City over towards the Chandelier Islands....showing little inland progression west of, say, Panama City attm, however.

[OuterBanker]

Not only the ull was affecting 96l. But also seems that the trough that appeared off SC/NC seems to have taken energy that 96l could have absorbed.

[plasticup]

At least FL is getting some of that rain they've needed.

[caneman]

Sideways heave rain storm all morning here in Tampa Bay area

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Periods of heavy rain and wind in Saint Pete all morning. Many home weather stations near the coast on Wunderground
are showing winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts.