C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Shoshana]

Hope you get that rain!

101 Mabry Day 23

[Portastorm]

Hope you get that rain!

101 Mabry Day 23

I could gripe ... but what good would it do?!

I've lived in Texas for 27 years and this summer already has made itself one of my least favorite weather seasons ... along with summer 2008. Drought, wildfires, no rain ... this is just pathetic. If the overall patterns don't change in the next year or so, I really shudder to think what's going to happen to my adopted state. Don't want to be overdramatic, but I would say it's a frightening prospect.

[Tireman4]

Hope you get that rain!

101 Mabry Day 23

I could gripe ... but what good would it do?!

I've lived in Texas for 27 years and this summer already has made itself one of my least favorite weather seasons ... along with summer 2008. Drought, wildfires, no rain ... this is just pathetic. If the overall patterns don't change in the next year or so, I really shudder to think what's going to happen to my adopted state. Don't want to be overdramatic, but I would say it's a frightening prospect.

According to my father, this is not the worst. He stated that is was really, really dry and hot during a portion of the 1950's. My father, who is 71, said that as with everything in life, this too is cyclical. To which I remarked, great Dad, but right now we are suffering. LOL

[Portastorm]

I've got no reason to dispute the sage wisdom from your father, Tireman. I'm sure he's right. Makes me wonder how the good folk back then handled it, especially in a time when air conditioning may not have been so prevalent.

[Shoshana]

102 Mabry 100 Bergstrom

Day 24

I seem to be one day ahead of the news outlets but there was a day last week where it hit 100 at 5pm and none of them seem to have counted it.

I was in Dallas in 1980 in a car with no a/c and black vinyl seats. For me the afternoon commute was horrible. People were buying blocks of ice to put in swimming pools.

But I don't remember fires or water shortages or power problems.

[Rgv20]

Rio Grande City again with a cool 95.

[Shoshana]

100 Mabry

Day 25

Possible rain in a few days tho!

[Rgv20]

ah yes hopefully that upper low has enough lift for some spotty storms around Monday.

Rio Grande City 94

[Shoshana]

100 (so far) Mabry

Day 26

107.6 at our house tho. I haven't been tracking our temps cause it makes it feel even hotter!

It's funny, in winter we are usually 3 degrees warmer than Bergstrom. In summer, we're hotter. How much? Dunno because right now I don't know how hot it is at Mabry or Bergstrom right now - the data is 45+ min old.

Still looking forward to go on vacay somewhere... cooler! (We always vacation in places that are cooler than Austin, lately that seems to be anywhere that's not in a desert!)

[Portastorm]

Shoshana, you probably weren't too far off today. My car temp gauge which is fairly reliable showed 105 driving home on Mopac around 5:15 p.m. today. I think I heard we officially hit 103 today at Mabry? Feels like 150.

[Shoshana]

I took a second gauge outside with me while our dog played in her doggie pool and I sweltered (I thought about joining her there but she gets too rowdy in the pool and she'd step on me lol).

The first gauge is attached to to house, this second one has a sesor on a wire so it can hang in the air. It was reading 105-106.

It did feel like 150 tho!

Keeping my fingers crossed for rain tomorrow! I noticed one of my Indian Hawthorn bushes is starting to look puny...

[Rgv20]

Yesterday it was 97 and Today 96 at Rio Grande City.

For tomorrow and Monday their is a slim chance of Rain, not holding my breath tho

[Shoshana]

Sat was Day 27

100 at Mabry. 99 Bergstrom. Hotter'n heck everywhere else.

My mom told me her gauge read 120 on her patio in the shade near Plano on Friday. It was hot there but nowhere near 120. Altho her patio does face south and she has the gauge hanging on the south fence - and there is a parking lot on the other side of the fence. I bet that parking lot is radiating heat and the wood fence is absorbing that and the heat beating down from the sun...

[shygnome]

Sat was Day 27

100 at Mabry. 99 Bergstrom. Hotter'n heck everywhere else.

My mom told me her gauge read 120 on her patio in the shade near Plano on Friday. It was hot there but nowhere near 120. Altho her patio does face south and she has the gauge hanging on the south fence - and there is a parking lot on the other side of the fence. I bet that parking lot is radiating heat and the wood fence is absorbing that and the heat beating down from the sun...

I live in Murphy just east of Plano. My very dependable gauge read 107 at 6pm on Friday. My gauge next to the pool (in the shade) read 112.

I recall summer of '80 quite well. It was my first indoor job (computer room) after working unskilled labor the previous summers. I picked the right summer to take my limited skills inside.

[Portastorm]

Not sure if we'll hit triple digits today (Sunday) in Austin. Humidity levels much higher this morning than in previous days and that could have a slightly moderating effect. Even though the chances are slim, I wouldn't be surprised to see some showers/storms pop up around here today. Saw some good cumulus build-up already while taking Ringo the Dog for his (and my) two-mile jaunt.

[South Texas Storms]

Ahh I finally found a thread where I can complain about how much I hate our droughts and La Nina.
I really hope we have hit rock bottom already and more rain is on the way for the last half of summer.

[South Texas Storms]

Do you guys see any hope on the horizon? I'm looking in the long range models and unfortunately I don't see much. Maybe a weak tropical wave moving through next weekend? I'm not holding my breath...

[vbhoutex]

Sat was Day 27

100 at Mabry. 99 Bergstrom. Hotter'n heck everywhere else.

My mom told me her gauge read 120 on her patio in the shade near Plano on Friday. It was hot there but nowhere near 120. Altho her patio does face south and she has the gauge hanging on the south fence - and there is a parking lot on the other side of the fence. I bet that parking lot is radiating heat and the wood fence is absorbing that and the heat beating down from the sun...

I live in Murphy just east of Plano. My very dependable gauge read 107 at 6pm on Friday. My gauge next to the pool (in the shade) read 112.

I recall summer of '80 quite well. It was my first indoor job (computer room) after working unskilled labor the previous summers. I picked the right summer to take my limited skills inside.

First of all we're glad to have you here posting! Welcome!!
Unfortunately this is starting to look like the summer of "80 plus exceptional drought over most of the state. We haven't hit 107 in Houston yet, but 105 2 days in a row was plenty!! Not looking good in the short or long term for temps to moderate much.

[gboudx]

I live in Murphy just east of Plano. My very dependable gauge read 107 at 6pm on Friday. My gauge next to the pool (in the shade) read 112.

I recall summer of '80 quite well. It was my first indoor job (computer room) after working unskilled labor the previous summers. I picked the right summer to take my limited skills inside.

Friday was particularly brutally hot here. I drive home to Rockwall from Richardson and go thru Murphy and Wylie. The car temp showed 109 the entire way. It's about +3 too warm, but still, 106 isn't exactly much cooler.

[Shoshana]

Hey shygnome and South Texas Storms! Welcome!

I did notice it was more humid than usual this morning.

Our temp gauge is at 99 already. 10% chance of rain today, partly cloudy rest of week. Weather Underground says highs of 99 all week except tomorrow- high of 97. KXAN says 98 tomorrow, 100 most of the rest of the week.

Just saw this - ick it's from July 7 KXAN

La Niña may return this fall

We received some very bad news Thursday from the Climate Prediction Center. Climate models are hinting at a possible return to the La Niña ocean pattern this fall. This isn’t just bad news–if it happens, our current, terrible drought could easily become the worst in recorded history.

It’s the La Niña pattern that began last fall to which we can attribute a significant portion of our current dry spell, and while it has ended (Pacific water temperatures have mostly returned to normal now), we are continuing to suffer the effects, because the summer is typically our driest period of the year.

Then it has the actual prediction

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.
During June 2011, ENSO-neutral conditions continued as reflected by the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near average (Fig. 2), ranging between 0.0oC (Niño-4) and 0.4oC (Niño-1+2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained elevated, but weakened slightly throughout the month, in accordance with the declining strength of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). While weak, the atmospheric circulation anomalies remained consistent with certain aspects of La Niña. In particular, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central Pacific. Collectively, these tropical Pacific anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, but the atmospheric circulation continues to be characteristic of La Niña.

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 August 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

So, La Nina may return, or maybe it won't!