Wave east of Windward Islands

[colbroe]

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14n28w 10n29w 5n30w SW
of the Cape Verde Islands moving W at 20 kt. SSMI total
precipitable water shows a distinct area of upper level
moisture. No significant deep convective precipitation is
discernible.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Any Model support??

[TheBurn]

[dixiebreeze]

It is holding together after dropping off the coast. Maybe something to watch in the days ahead.

[plasticup]

Any Model support??

Not this far out, no.

[cycloneye]

It has lost almost all of the convection,but it still has a good vorticity windfield at 850mb.



And also good vorticity at 700mb.



Also at 500mb.



Graphics above uploaded by imageshack.us

[Hurricaneman]

Id say if it keeps good 850 vorticity, it could be a player down the road

[Sanibel]

At this time of the year good waves can disappear in the mid-Atlantic and re-appear when they emerge in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

I believe this tropical weather outlook is for this wave that the thread is for.

Colbroe, fixed the title of thread to update location and % of TWO. The original title was "New wave emerging from Africa" made on July 8th.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[floridasun78]

maybe same wave but look like going run into south America as other one did

[TheBurn]

[plasticup]

Still no model support. All indications point to this sliding gently into South America.

[GCANE]

Amplitude on MIMIC-TPW is relatively high and has been holding up pretty well.

I can see where NHC is coming from - worth keeping an eye on.

[ROCK]

I agree...it does have some solid rotation....dry air to the North probably causing some issue with the lack convection.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks a bit more interesting in terms of structure today. Still lacking a solid core of significant convection, but it has that "shape" to it moreso this afternoon.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

some vorticity detail.....wind shear not bad...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

Nothing new at 2 PM.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Sanibel]

It's possible but it is going to enter the Caribbean in July. The dry weather feature to the NW doesn't look conducive.

[Macrocane]

Could this system be the one that will spawn cyclogenesis near Central America? In 5 days or so it may reach the area and it's the time when the models show a low developing.

[cycloneye]

The same at 8 PM TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
...HEAVY SQUALLS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.