ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

If you look at this loop of the subsurface in the Pacific,you can see the reds and yellows shrinking while the blues are growing a little. That means,El Nino is far from comming to life anytime soon.

[thetruesms]

Title seems a little off - CFS is a bit of an outlier in going back to La Niña, and the discussion even notes that neutral remains the most likely scenario. It's just that a double dip La Niña has a higher probability now than it did last discussion.

Grrr people who live in the south don't want to hear this! We really need El Nino to return and give us a wet and cool winter, expecially after this brutal drought we currently are experiencing in Texas. Is it rare to have a La Nina and then Neutral and then La Nina again? I thought it usually went in the pattern of La Nina then Neutral and then El Nino and vice versa?

Well, if there's a good thing to take away from this, it's that neutral remains the most common scenario, which would be better than dipping back into La Niña.

Thanks Portastorm. Isn't it true that the ENSO model forecasts run in the early summer months are the most unrelable runs of the year? I thought I read that somewhere...

I really don't know the answer to your question, STS. I'll try and do some research on that and I'm sure others here may opine as well. Like any other computer modeling, I do know that some long-range models do better than others depending on the ENSO state.

Dont have to research for that question as I found the discussion about it.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

I was going to mention the spring forecast wall, but it looks like that link takes care of that already

[Ptarmigan]

I don't want another La Nina. That means another drought again. Let's hope it is wrong. I want El Nino so things will be wetter.

[Macrocane]

And I don't want another El Niño that means drought in other partos of the world including Central America Let's hope for Neutral that's normal things for everybody.

[cycloneye]

Those who want El Nino to come,dont start to celebrate when you see this post about the SOI going negative for the first time since Mid March 2010. That is because the SOI has to go down to -8 or below to then have El Nino in the making, and tonight,it is at -0.1.

Graphic updates daily:



Graphic doesn't update:

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: And I don't want another El Niño that means drought in other partos of the world including Central America Let's hope for Neutral that's normal things for everybody.

I understand no one wants a drought. Neutral would be fine with me too.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center weekly update at 7/11/11

Is down to -0.1C from +0.1C that was last week.In other words,the Pacific has cooled a tad,reinforcing the July forecast by CPC of Neutral thru the fall and no El Nino appearing.

Niño 4= -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.1ºC
Niño 3= -0.1ºC
Niño1+2= 0.0ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

At this point whoever bets on forecasting El Nino to appear in the heart of the hurricane season will not have not have much luck in coming through, IMO.
Last two instances ('09 & '06) that we saw an unexpected El Nino in the heart of the hurricane season by this time of the year ENSO was already warming up nicely.
Now the question is would ENSO stay neutral or go back to La Nina during next winter.

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I predict that we will have a Neutral for the rest of 2011 like 2008. However, I can see a brief La Nina (peak of -0.8 IMO) forming around January 2012, before weakening back into a Neutral into next spring.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center weekly update at 7/18/11

No change from last week's update as 3.4 remains at -0.1C. That means no El Nino in the cards to appear in the next few months.

Niño 4= 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.1ºC
Niño 3= 0.1ºC
Niño1+2= 0.0ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

We are in what we call a neutral neutral

[cycloneye]

Those who wanted El Nino to come by the winter,hummm not going to happen as the July update of all ENSO models are Neutral,with some returning to Weak La Nina by January.



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[South Texas Storms]

Oh well...maybe next winter we will have a good El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of the July update of ENSO models.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... pdate.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html

ENSO Update
21 July 2011
Summary
Since the ending of the moderate to strong La Niña episode in early May 2011, neutral ENSO conditions have prevailed. For the July-September season currently in progress, there is an approximately 10% probability for returning to La Niña conditions, an 82% probability for remaining in neutral conditions, and an 8% probability for the development of El Niño conditions. Although neutral conditions are the most likely scenario throughout the remainder of 2011, development of El Niño conditions or, particularly, the re-emergence of La Niña conditions, cannot be ruled out.

General Discussion

In mid-July 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index maintained values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions (-0.1 degrees C away from average), while overall conditions below the ocean surface remain near average. Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific feature an average to slightly enhanced strength of easterlies, and the Southern Oscillation Index is near average levels. These observations indicate the presence of neutral ENSO conditions.

Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models, 4% of them indicate re-emergence of La Niña conditions during the July-September 2011 season currently in progress, while 96% indicate neutral ENSO conditions. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, for the upcoming August-October season the probability for neutral conditions is approximately 70%, while the probability for La Niña conditions is 18% and the probability for El Niño development is 12%. From the northern autumn season into early winter 2011/12, the probabilities for La Niña, neutral and El Niño conditions are near 26%, 60% and 14%, respectively.

[Macrocane]

I didn't want an El Niño, nor La Niña, Neutral would be great.

[xironman]

Latest look at the Euro calls for a neutral / weak nina (sigh). Guess my hopes for a decent winter are dashed, stupid northern stream. Oh well at least it puts my prediction for an active season in a better position.

[cycloneye]

Latest look at the Euro calls for a neutral / weak nina (sigh). Guess my hopes for a decent winter are dashed, stupid northern stream. Oh well at least it puts my prediction for an active season in a better position.

Here it is.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 7/25/11 update

No change from last week's update at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center August Update

Neutral thru the fall months and La Nina possibly after that period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 8/8/11 update

It turned colder in Nino 3.4 region as it fell from -0.1C to -0.4C. Maybe La Nina reappears more rapidly than forecast?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf