Development on either side of Central A? (Is invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Wow...18z GFS switches to the ATL side

[cycloneye]

Yikes!! what a back and forth of the models on this. That is why I made the title of thread as "Posible development on either side of Central America".

[lrak]

Whats coming off the western Yucatan? Looks like another LP has reached the coast.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps agrees with the GFS

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[cycloneye]

Marcocane, your country is mentioned. Anything new on the alerts there?

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA.
WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF
EL SALVADOR...THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOONAL
FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION
FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[BigA]

As does the 18Z WRF, to some extent.



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[Rgv20]

12zECMWF trying to show something too.

The 850mb vorticity is fairly strong just east of Nicaragua at 72hrs.


Also, the NAM has been consisting on this potential feature for the past of couple of runs.

[Ivanhater]

Already getting interesting

[Macrocane]

Marcocane, your country is mentioned. Anything new on the alerts there?

It has been raining in most of the country since 3 pm it's 7:10 pm right now, it has been a moderate and persistent rain. No alerts have been declared yet in El Salvador but the emergency management stated that an alert could be issued later today or in the next few days if necessary.

[GCANE]

Whats coming off the western Yucatan? Looks like another LP has reached the coast.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Good flare when it got into open water in the BOC with moderate to low shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[NDG]

Already getting interesting

Looks to be nothing more than the monsoon trough across the southern Caribbean right now.

[NDG]

Whats coming off the western Yucatan? Looks like another LP has reached the coast.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Good flare when it got into open water in the BOC with moderate to low shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Vorticity is still inland over southern MX, I would give it <5% chance of any development in the BOC, if something was to happen it would have to do so fast as an ULL is moving in steady towards that area to bring in northerly shear across the BOC in the next few days.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS back to send this into the PAC....flip flop again....I thinkthe model support for the NC low looks more promising....

[BZSTORM]

Tonight Belize met discussion
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION DATE: TUESDAY 12TH JULY 2011 (EVENING)

SKIES REMAINED GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOIST CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE OVER YUCATAN AND EASTERN BELIZE IS SUPPORTING NE/SE FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE PATTERN IS VERY DIVERGENT. AT 700MB, RIDGING SUPPORTS A MOIST E/SE'LY FLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED AT 850MB AND THE SURFACE.

TUES. NIGHT AND WED:

AT UPPER LEVELS, A LOW CURRENTLY NEAR JAMAICA WILL MOVE WESTWARD BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STABLE NW'LY FLOW. AT 700MB, MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE, AFFECTING ONLY THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW WILL BACK UP MORE TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT 850MB AND THE SURFACE. HERE, THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN RAINFALL. GFS PEAKS RAINFALL AT ONLY .25 IN DURING THIS CYCLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH. NAMS SHOW NO RAINFALL AT ALL. UKMET SHOWS .25IN MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WED. NIGHT AND THURS:

THE LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STABLE NW'LY FLOW. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED AT 850MB AND THE SURFACE. HERE WITH LESS MOISTURE AND STABLE UPPER LEVELS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER DECREASES AS SHOWN BY GFS WHICH PEAKS RAINFALL AT ONLY .10 OVER THE SOUTH COAST. AGAIN, NAMS SHOW NO RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

RECAST: GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AROUND THE COUNTRY, BUT, ESPECIALLY SO ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED: A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WED. NIGHT AND THURS.

MARINE: EAST 10 -20KT.WITH HIGHER GUSTS; MOD-ROUGH. 5-7FT. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION

FORECASTER: Wellington


Note: although I did hear via a friend that rivers in Toledo in far south had rivers rising this morning and in some places was overflowing onto roads. But for Placencia its been relatively dry day though I can currently hear thunder to the south.

[MississippiWx]

The area in the Bay of Campeche is interesting. Won't develop anytime soon, but it's neat to look at during this quiet time. You know, we have had several strong disturbances already this year, but they have been just a little too far south to develop into anything significant. Once the ITCZ moves farther north, these disturbances will have a much better opportunity to develop (obviously). However, I think the most interesting thing to take from that is the strength of the disturbances/waves that have been propagating into the Central/Western Caribbean.

[MississippiWx]

Wind shear has really decreased across the entire basin in the past week or so. There is one patch of 30kt shear in the Southern Caribbean, but other than that, the MDR is moderately favorable to favorable. Could have a ramp up in activity soon, starting with the possible tropical system off NC/GA this weekend.

Anyway, about this Central American disturbance, I think the models are having trouble with location of development because of the strong competition. What this could be hinting at is that no concentrated area of low pressure will be able to develop. Instead, we might just have one large monsoonal circulation that remains mostly over land. It will definitely be interesting to watch over the next few days.

[tailgater]

I gotta think that the NHC is blowing this one . If this is not a TD it is certainly very close.


WEST winds at 3 reporting stations and pressure down 2 mb since yesterday which isn't a lot but background pressure is up.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[cycloneye]

tailgater,they heard you!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[tailgater]

yeah Cyclone lol

I would have thought 40 to 50% but at least it's something the visible sat pics may tell a better story.

[NDG]

Pressures in the BOC are 2-4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago, and a definete cyclonic circulation by looking at surface reports, I cannot find any TD force winds but then there are no reports from the areas of convection.
Time is not on its side, it will be onshore by this afternoon or evening.