PV anomaly still mid-level, hasn't gotten down to the surface yet.
Plenty of potential to spin up deep.
WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Textbook core coming together quickly. Perfect anti-cyclone overhead.
PV anomaly still mid-level, hasn't gotten down to the surface yet.
Plenty of potential to spin up deep.
PV anomaly still mid-level, hasn't gotten down to the surface yet.
Plenty of potential to spin up deep.
0 likes
Looks a good deal stronger than the JWTC estimatedf, at leasty as of last night...
Probably undergoing some sort of RI at the moment based on its great presentation.
Probably undergoing some sort of RI at the moment based on its great presentation.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Hate to say this, but this is looking bad for spreading Fukushima radiation over Honshu.
Already heard they are selling radioactive beef there.
http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View ... category=1
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... tive.cows/
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/07/102681.html
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/07/102548.html
Already heard they are selling radioactive beef there.
http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View ... category=1
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... tive.cows/
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/07/102681.html
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/07/102548.html
0 likes
WTPQ50 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 19.8N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 250NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 20.7N 147.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 150600UTC 21.8N 142.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 160600UTC 22.7N 138.4E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 170600UTC 24.5N 134.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 180600UTC 27.8N 132.2E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT =
WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.0N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.4N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.7N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.2N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 150.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FILLED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
WAS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE 24 HOURS AGO. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
REVEALS THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) EXTENDING ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THE INHIBITION HAS EASED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO SHAPE ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION ALSO EXPOSES A DEEP TROUGH IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THUS THE ONLY QUADRANT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND OVER THAT QUADRANT,
CONVECTION SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
DISPERSING ENERGY FROM THE CORE. THE LATEST TWO MICROWAVE IMAGE
SERIES, A 130245Z AMSRE AND A 130613Z SSMI, BOTH CONFIRM A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT THEY DO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE AGGREGATE, TS 08W IS SHOWING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU
(THE SAME FORCE BEHIND THE BRUTAL HEAT WAVE IN MAINLAND JAPAN). THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL DRIVE TS 08W ON A STEADY COURSE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE IT INTENSIFIES AT A RATE OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20
KNOTS PER DAY. AFTER TAU 72, THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST, OPENING A WEAKNESS OVER THE NORTHERN
RYUKUS. THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN STAYS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF, IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. OF
GREATER CERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THAN THE TRACK IS THE
INTENSITY. IT IS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT A POLEWARD TRACK WOULD NOT BE
THE COMMON RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH THE STORM ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LEVEL
MODIFICATION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF STIPS GUIDANCE, CLOSER
TO ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
Rarely does JMA have an intensity equal to JTWC due to their different wind averaging methods. In this case, 55 kt 10-min appears more reasonable than 55 kt 1-min.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 19.8N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 250NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 20.7N 147.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 150600UTC 21.8N 142.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 160600UTC 22.7N 138.4E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 170600UTC 24.5N 134.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 180600UTC 27.8N 132.2E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT =
WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.0N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.4N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.7N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.2N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 150.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FILLED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
WAS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE 24 HOURS AGO. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
REVEALS THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) EXTENDING ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THE INHIBITION HAS EASED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO SHAPE ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION ALSO EXPOSES A DEEP TROUGH IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THUS THE ONLY QUADRANT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND OVER THAT QUADRANT,
CONVECTION SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
DISPERSING ENERGY FROM THE CORE. THE LATEST TWO MICROWAVE IMAGE
SERIES, A 130245Z AMSRE AND A 130613Z SSMI, BOTH CONFIRM A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT THEY DO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE AGGREGATE, TS 08W IS SHOWING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU
(THE SAME FORCE BEHIND THE BRUTAL HEAT WAVE IN MAINLAND JAPAN). THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL DRIVE TS 08W ON A STEADY COURSE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE IT INTENSIFIES AT A RATE OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20
KNOTS PER DAY. AFTER TAU 72, THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST, OPENING A WEAKNESS OVER THE NORTHERN
RYUKUS. THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN STAYS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF, IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. OF
GREATER CERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THAN THE TRACK IS THE
INTENSITY. IT IS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT A POLEWARD TRACK WOULD NOT BE
THE COMMON RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH THE STORM ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LEVEL
MODIFICATION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF STIPS GUIDANCE, CLOSER
TO ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
Rarely does JMA have an intensity equal to JTWC due to their different wind averaging methods. In this case, 55 kt 10-min appears more reasonable than 55 kt 1-min.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
IMHO, a good chance for RI once the TUTT dissipates allowing for outflow channels to kick in.
Looking at the size of this, may not be too long.
Looking at the size of this, may not be too long.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Spoke too soon. Looks like RI already underway.
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2011 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 19:56:36 N Lon : 149:59:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 968.5mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# 4.7
Adj T# 5.2
Raw T# 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : -30.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2011 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 19:56:36 N Lon : 149:59:01 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 968.5mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# 4.7
Adj T# 5.2
Raw T# 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : -30.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
0 likes
12Z JMA has Ma-On close to typhoon status:
WTPQ50 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 19.8N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 20.8N 145.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 151200UTC 21.9N 141.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 161200UTC 22.9N 136.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 171200UTC 25.3N 133.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 181200UTC 28.8N 131.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =
WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
NWS Guam issuing intermediate advisory stating Ma-On is a typhoon, probably foreshadowing next JTWC advisory:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 131300
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MA-ON (08W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
1100 PM CHST WED JUL 13 2011
...MA-ON NOW A TYPHOON...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 1000 PM CHST..1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MA-ON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.3 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
310 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
440 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
570 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON MA-ON
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.
$$
MCELROY
Latest Dvorak estimates from JTWC and SAB are both at 4.0/65kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 131210
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MAON)
B. 13/1132Z
C. 19.8N
D. 150.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. 1.0
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 4.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 3.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0613Z 19.7N 151.3E SSMI
13/0713Z 19.7N 151.0E SSMS
HATHAWAY
TXPQ26 KNES 130906
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 13/0832Z
C. 19.9N
D. 150.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.0 WH BAND ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. BANDING TYPE EYE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI
WTPQ50 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 19.8N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 20.8N 145.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 151200UTC 21.9N 141.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 161200UTC 22.9N 136.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 171200UTC 25.3N 133.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 181200UTC 28.8N 131.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =
WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
NWS Guam issuing intermediate advisory stating Ma-On is a typhoon, probably foreshadowing next JTWC advisory:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 131300
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MA-ON (08W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
1100 PM CHST WED JUL 13 2011
...MA-ON NOW A TYPHOON...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 1000 PM CHST..1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MA-ON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.3 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
310 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
440 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
570 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON MA-ON
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.
$$
MCELROY
Latest Dvorak estimates from JTWC and SAB are both at 4.0/65kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 131210
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MAON)
B. 13/1132Z
C. 19.8N
D. 150.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. 1.0
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 4.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 3.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0613Z 19.7N 151.3E SSMI
13/0713Z 19.7N 151.0E SSMS
HATHAWAY
TXPQ26 KNES 130906
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 13/0832Z
C. 19.9N
D. 150.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.0 WH BAND ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. BANDING TYPE EYE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI
Last edited by supercane on Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143866
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
StormingB81 wrote:If I was a betting man I would take JTWC upgrading it to Typhon in 30 min
You won the bet,NRL at 12:00z is at 65kts.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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StormingB81
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- Location: Rockledge, Florida
JTWC upgrades:
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.3N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.4N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 149.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.3N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.4N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 149.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
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StormingB81
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Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Tokyo
- Contact:
Do we really have to spell this out every time there's a Wpac storm?!? TOKYO is the official RSMC out here so please change the title back to Severe Tropical Storm. EDIT: Or at least add that JMA have it as STS.
Latest JTWC forecast looks pretty conservative on intensity forecast. JMA going for 100kts in 72hrs, never seen them make such a bold forecast.
Latest JTWC forecast looks pretty conservative on intensity forecast. JMA going for 100kts in 72hrs, never seen them make such a bold forecast.
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Truly underestimated Ma-On continues to strengthen. I would place the intensity at 90 knots 1 minute winds based on it's overall organization and well formed eye which it had for nearly 24 hours.
Truly underestimated Ma-On continues to strengthen. I would place the intensity at 90 knots 1 minute winds based on it's overall organization and well formed eye which it had for nearly 24 hours.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Tokyo
- Contact:
Thanks for changing thread title!
I agree this certainly looks like a typhoon to me. JTWC prognostic reasoning makes for a very interesting read too. Similar to early one in terms of how good they're expecting environment to be off Japan as well as a major compliment to ECMWF. It's worth reading the whole thing. Despite that I think it will peak much higher than 110kts given what the global models have been hinting at and how aggressive JMA are being!
I agree this certainly looks like a typhoon to me. JTWC prognostic reasoning makes for a very interesting read too. Similar to early one in terms of how good they're expecting environment to be off Japan as well as a major compliment to ECMWF. It's worth reading the whole thing. Despite that I think it will peak much higher than 110kts given what the global models have been hinting at and how aggressive JMA are being!
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Ma-on is a category 1 as of 1200z and the forecast calls for at least a category 3.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
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