Development in SW Caribbean-0%

[Ivanhater]

97L formed in the BOC, but the monsoon trough is still trucking away.

06z GFS still spins up a cyclone in just 3 days

[Ivanhater]

As does the 00z Canadian

[cycloneye]

Depending if and where between Colombia and Nicaragua something forms, that body of water is larger than where 97L is at BOC,so it has a much better chance. Time will tell if anything gets going,so let's keep watching the next runs of the models and watch in real time,how the clouds gather and if organization starts.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nam moves it NW

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues with the SW Caribbean development,in the 60 hour timeframe.

[Ivanhater]

Yes Luis...a very robust system by 72 hours..very short term. Bret, is that you?

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian even stronger

[Dean4Storms]

I'd be willing to bet the organization takes place in the EPAC with this.

[Ivanhater]

I'd be willing to bet the organization takes place in the EPAC with this.

I thought that as well but the models have switched back to the ATL basin within 60 hours at that....that time frame cannot be ignored...

[BigA]

It looks to me from the models that a crossover storm (Carribbean to Pacific) is a distinct possibility.

Current policy is to retain the name, correct?

[Macrocane]

Yeah if the LLC remains well defined it will retain its name It seems that it could pass just south of El Salvador so the threat remains for the Pacific side of Central America.

[Hurricaneman]

It does look like some stuff the next few days, but will it become anything? answer, maybe

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS....very interesting to see where this gets classified

[cycloneye]

Michael,they say is convective feedback that GFS is showing a cyclone. This is the EPAC discussion.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 105W CONVERGING INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES NICARAGUA AND RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE OF EL SALVADOR A GUATEMALA THEN CONTINUES W-NM NEAR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AN INDICATION THAT SW
SWELL CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE REGIONAL WATERS. PATCHES OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF 4N E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS IS
BECOMING MORE OF AN OUTLIER...SHOWING VERY STRONG 40 KT FLOW
INTO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PANAMA BY FRI. THIS IS LIKELY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE OTHER MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW A
LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...AND CONCENTRATE LOW PRES FORMATION
MAINLY S OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MODEST
LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE NOGAPS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND OVERDEVELOPING THE LOW. EVEN WITH NO DEEP LOW
DEVELOPING...THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO...SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

$$
GR/EC

[Ivanhater]

Convective feedback within 60 hours? That seems odd, also the Canadian develops this as well so the GFS is not the only global model showing this. This may not develop in the Caribbean, but that discussion is odd.

[Macrocane]

Yeah I find it odd too, in any case wouldn't be the Euro an outlier as CMC, NOGAPS and GFS are showing development?

[Macrocane]

Now, they didn't mention the convective feedback and actually said that a low may develop:

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 100W CONVERGING INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS
OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THESE
COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. PATCHES OF MODERATE
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ARE MORE CONCENTRATED
N OF 5N E OF 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CREATE LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES IN THE LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON TROUGH.

[ROCK]

0z CMC sends it over to the PAC....

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS is on drugs
0z GFS back on sending this into the PAC...

[Macrocane]

0z NOGAPS is on drugs
0z GFS back on sending this into the PAC...

Just for fun, what does the 0z NOGAPS show?