WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[StormingB81]

I know it has been brought up but just looking for clearification...since 92w is still at a low chance and still stationary..when would this have to start to develop and move in order to effect Ma-an..I know there are other factors that go into the movement of the storm but in all the warning it has interaction with this storm which looks like it could not happend..

[StormingB81]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp1t.png

Its like picking straws I guess..all over the place..

[ManilaTC]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp1t.png

Its like picking straws I guess..all over the place..

Well this sucks...

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory up to 75 from 70kt:
WTPQ50 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 20.0N 147.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 20.9N 142.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 160000UTC 21.8N 137.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 170000UTC 23.0N 133.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 180000UTC 25.8N 132.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
120HF 190000UTC 29.4N 132.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT =


Latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and JTWC are both 5.0/90kt.
TPPN11 PGTW 140024
A. TYPHOON 08W (MAON)
B. 13/2332Z
C. 20.2N
D. 147.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. MG
EYE SURR BY LG W/BANDING FEATURE YIELDED A 5.0 DT. PT AGREES.
MET INDICATES 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1845Z 19.9N 147.9E SSMI
13/2007Z 19.7N 148.1E SSMS
13/2115Z 19.9N 147.8E TRMM
QUAST

TXPQ26 KNES 132109
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 13/2032Z
C. 20.0N
D. 147.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO APPEAR THROUGH CDO AND CURRENT IMAGE
SHOWS BEST EXAMPLE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MG EYE EMBEDDED IN BLACK
FOR EYE NO. OF 5.5. WITH NO ADJ FOR BLACK RING FOR A FINAL DT OF 5.5.
MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. GIVEN THAT DT TREND HAS BEEN IN THE 5.0 RANGE
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND EYE IS A BIT RAGGED LOOKING THOUGH TECHNICALLY
NOT ELONGATED...DT IS REJECTED AND MET IS UNRELIABLE AS WELL MAKING...FT
IS BASED ON PT AT 5.0. THOUGH GIVEN DT WOULD SUSPECT CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BETWEEN 5.0 AND 5.5.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/1530Z 19.9N 148.9E AMSU
13/1707Z 19.9N 148.6E AMSU
...GALLINA

[supercane]

And per the above Dvorak estimates, JTWC raises winds up to 90kt with their latest advisory (03Z, issued early):
WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.4N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.4N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.8N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 146.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

[Florida1118]

Best of luck to Japan

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 12zGFS Ensembles, all of the members are slower with Ma-on by 144hrs 12z Tuesday.



12zECMWF Ensembles are slower than the operational run too at 144hrs.




Hopefully residents of Japan are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

[HurricaneBill]

I hope this isn't a sign of how the season will be for Japan. The last thing Japan needs is a season like 2004.



Ironically, the Ma-On of that year made a destructive hit.

[Florida1118]

Why didnt they reitre the name?

[Typhoon Hunter]

I hope this isn't a sign of how the season will be for Japan. The last thing Japan needs is a season like 2004.



Ironically, the Ma-On of that year made a destructive hit.

Hopefully not given we're in season La Nina +1. Increased chances of TC formation off Philippines and SCS will hopefully spare Japan too many more typhoons!

[Fyzn94]

Is it me or does that look like a stadium eyewall?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Sure does look like a very deep eye wall now, I don't see any recent Microwave imagerys out yet to confirm that, but when we do get one it will likely be there.

Also I do want to note the ROKs and NWS are also warning on this.






O and one last note, I'm way off the map now! Down in Brisbane, so enjoy the typhoons!

[Rgv20]

New 0zGFS rides Ma-on just off the coast of Japan from 0zTuesday thru 12zThursday.





Looking at the 0zGFS thru Accuweather Pro, it looks like it peaks it at 942 mean sea level pressure at 6zMonday

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140303
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MA-ON (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
200 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

...TYPHOON MA-ON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MA-ON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
150 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
175 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN
355 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN...AND
480 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 135 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 140417
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MA-ON (08W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2011

...TYPHOON MA-ON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE ON PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

AS OF 200 PM CHST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MA-ON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
150 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
175 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN
355 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN...AND
480 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MA-ON IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 105 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE EYE OF TYPHOON MA-ON IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 130 MILES
NORTH OF PAGAN BETWEEN 400 PM AND 600 PM THIS EVENING. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE THEY ARRIVE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIE DOWN OR BRING INDOORS LOOSE OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT
MAY BE BLOWN AROUND...AND MAKE SURE ANY WATER CRAFT ARE SECURED.
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 40 TO 50 MPH BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30
TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 25 TO
35 MPH BY DAWN FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
OF 12 TO 16 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY ON WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EXPOSURES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED
AND SURF WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND TREES...AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 9 PM CHST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON



Central Pressures & winds for Guam and Saipan:

Guam: 29.67 in. Hg (1004 hPa) Mostly Cloudy
from the W (280 degrees) at 24 MPH (21 KT)- AAFB
from the W (260 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT) gusting to 22 MPH (19 KT)- AB WonPat

Saipan: 29.59 in. Hg (1002 hPa) Partly Cloudy
from the W (270 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 32 MPH (28 KT)


It's a very wet and windy day here on Guam as the eye of Typhoon Ma-on is now north of Guam and the CNMI. I want to jog today but I don't think i can since it's expected to continue for the next 2 days!

[supercane]

Storming, looking at the most recent GFS run, I don't see much interaction with 92W nor the S of W movement seen in the models a few days ago. A more likely scenario is will the outflow from Ma-On disrupt any developmental attempts made by 92W given the latter's smaller size. JTWC does comment on it in its discussion:

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, FORMING A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
CONTINUOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. A 132115Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY
CONCENTRIC BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A ZONE OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS WARNING REFLECTS A MARKED INCREASE IN THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR DESCRIBED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 48,
IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES TO
THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF UP TO 135 KTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON MA-ON WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING VWS AS IT TURNS TO A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER,
THE DEGRADATION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WILL KEEP THE
INTENSITIES NEAR 100 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU AND
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. UKMET
AND GFDN FAVOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. NOGAPS, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS RIGHT OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER WEAKENING AND RECEDING OF
THE STR. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 48 IN FAVOR OF MORE SOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI.//
NNNN

rgv, ensembles are interesting but as the NHC notes in its annual verification reports, the ensemble of a same model (e.g, ECMWF ensemble, GFS ensemble) does not beat out the operational model in accuracy (unexpected given ensembles of different models are often better than an individual model).

Stay dry, euro. Guam and Saipan dodged a bullet with this one. Ma-On will probably be too far away for good radar pics of the eye (that and the cone of blockage from Saipan).

Latest vis:

TXPQ26 KNES 140310
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 14/0232Z
C. 20.2N
D. 146.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON OW EYE WITH LG SURROUNDING
RING. PT=5.0. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/2115Z 19.9N 147.7E TMI
...SCHWARTZ

[StormingB81]

Thank you....I am sure Sunday we will know where this wnats to go..Like the post I put earlier I cant believe how different the models are with one going south of okinawa then up towards honsu area..pretty crazy

[euro6208]

wow ma-on is so large

typhoons definitely are the largest and most powerful in the world

[phwxenthusiast]

great capture by the AMSRE 0301z (from NRLMRY)

37GHz MWI

[StormingB81]

So, The weather people are saying the models are coming into agreement and that if it stays on track Okinawa at most would see 40mph winds with gusts ay about 55 mph

[somethingfunny]

:uarrow: Why didnt they reitre the name?

According to Wikipedia, despite hitting at such strength and in such a populous area, Ma-On of 2004 caused six deaths/three missing and $603million in damages. Typhoon Tokage only a week later was far worse for Japan - 69 deaths and $3.23billion in damage.