Season Cancel!

[HouTXmetro]

What A DUD , this season was hyped up to be so active and here we are midway through July and there is absolutely NADA even to discuss............. Just kidding, but seriously, do you all think the the forecasters will downgrade their storm numbers in light of this slow start? How do similar analog seasons compare as far a slow start and threats to CONUS?

[Ntxw]

Not really a dud. Can't cancel it until it's over. Plus it's during the peak that most storms form anyway. They generally always predict an active season count anyway lol. But I do agree that some predictions of a fast and early start to the season were simply wrong.

[wxman57]

:grr: What A DUD , this season was hyped up to be so active and here we are midway through July and there is absolutely NADA even to discuss............. Just kidding, but seriously, do you all think the the forecasters will downgrade their storm numbers in light of this slow start? How do similar analog seasons compare as far a slow start and threats to CONUS?

We just raised our forecast by 1 based on the greater certainty of no El Nino. 15-9-4 looks about right. About 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September and 2-3 in October.

[BigA]

Hurricane season isn't like sports seasons, with continuous activity throughout. Rather, it's a distribution (almost Gaussian-looking) with a sharp peak near late August and September. Actually, mid July is little, if at all, more favorable than early June.

[Stormcenter]

It's way too early to call it a "dud" but even if it doesn't live up to the predicted numbers we all know it only takes 1 big one. We still have
a ton of season left.

[wxman57]

He was kidding about "season cancel". However, the question about the relatively normal start to the season possibly indicating that it won't be as active as forecast was valid. I don't think so in this case. Analog years were all generally quite active from late July on (14-15 named storms after mid July).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In the end total numbers don't really matter, it is where the storms go and how strong they are when them get there that makes all the difference. Need I even mention hurricane seasons 1991 and 1992. Each season only featured one hurricane force storm at landfall, one was named Bob the other Andrew.

[BigA]

True enough. Some very active years have had active early seasons.

[TYNI]

In the end total numbers don't really matter, it is where the storms go and how strong they are when them get there that makes all the difference. Need I even mention hurricane seasons 1991 and 1992. Each season only featured one hurricane force storm at landfall, one was named Bob the other Andrew.

Andrew - mid August!!!

[Blown Away]

Us hurricane nuts have a 6th sense that is telling us we are very close and that awareness is making us restless.

[South Texas Storms]

:grr: What A DUD , this season was hyped up to be so active and here we are midway through July and there is absolutely NADA even to discuss............. Just kidding, but seriously, do you all think the the forecasters will downgrade their storm numbers in light of this slow start? How do similar analog seasons compare as far a slow start and threats to CONUS?

We just raised our forecast by 1 based on the greater certainty of no El Nino. 15-9-4 looks about right. About 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September and 2-3 in October.

Are there any areas that you think have an enhanced risk at a possible landfall? (Western Gulf, Florida, East Coast)?

[Tireman4]

Alicia-Mid August

[lester]

It's July <_<

Remember remember the year 2004

[flwxwatcher]

Last year at this time we also had one named storm and we ended up with 19 storms before all was said and done.

[Brent]

[somethingfunny]

Most seasons don't get their 2nd named storm until early August.

[Rainband]

It's on schedule

[gigabite]

The first new moon of July was over Saudi Arabia, the second new moon of July the new moon will be just south of Baja, the August full moon will be over the Philippines, the September New Moon will be in the Atlantic, but south of the equator, and in October forget about it's way to far south where ever it is.

August is the season maybe the early part of September. I am thinking short hot summer and long cold winter. 6-7 storms maybe a couple more for improved technology, 2 US landfalls, analog 1952, 1977

[somethingfunny]

The first new moon of July was over Saudi Arabia, the second new moon of July the new moon will be just south of Baja, the August full moon will be over the Philippines, the September New Moon will be in the Atlantic, but south of the equator, and in October forget about it's way to far south where ever it is.

August is the season maybe the early part of September. I am thinking short hot summer and long cold winter. 6-7 storms maybe a couple more for improved technology, 2 US landfalls, analog 1952, 1977

So 6-7 storms and maybe all the way up to 10 to account for borderline TS strength weaklings? Gonna hold you to that this year.

[tailgater]

This certainly doesn't look like much of a deturrent(sp)