WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 20.1N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 21.3N 140.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 160600UTC 22.3N 136.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 170600UTC 24.0N 133.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

[StormingB81]

See what the models bring tomorow...should still be interesting...I know where my eyes will be all day!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 20.2N 144.9E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 21.2N 139.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 161200UTC 22.1N 135.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 171200UTC 24.1N 132.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[supercane]

JTWC 15Z out early:
WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.5N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.5N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.4N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 145.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140328Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAGGED EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 14/0532Z PGTW FIX AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 08W IS LOCATED
BENEATH A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING THE
SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND REMAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEING TRACKING INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES THE STEERING RIDGE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, TY 08W IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN KYUSHU. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48, BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER
WEAKENING AND RECEDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GFDN IS ALSO
DEPICTING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. EGRR
REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA, BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THIS
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, FAVORING A
TRACK SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 IN FAVOR OF A MORE
SOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS, THE FORECAST AT TAU 120 IS SLIGHTLY
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS
UNTIL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 141230
A. TYPHOON 08W (MAON)
B. 14/1132Z
C. 20.2N
D. 145.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/LG SURR AND
BANDING FEAT. YIELDS 5.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0721Z 20.3N 146.2E SSMS
HATHAWAY

[oaba09]

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.6N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.0N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.5N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.5N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.3N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 144.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

[JTE50]

The weather here on Guam has been crazy the past two days. Very squally tonight with thunder and lightning (two things that are surprisingly pretty rare here). So glad this one went north...

Indeed, I can't remember ever hearing thunder on Guam either. It was strange seeing the winds reverse on the doppler radar the past few days. I imagine the surf was stirred up at the boat basin in Hagatna. It was really big there for Nida in 2009.

[GCANE]

Eyewall is improving.

[RobWESTPACWX]

GCANE, where on CMISS do you get that product? Just curios?

[JTE50]

GCANE, where on CMISS do you get that product? Just curios?

Go here then click on the typhoon symbol on the map. There are some options to pick from to the left - click on MIMIC. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[jaguarjace]

There's also a simple page here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml
It also has an archive directory with the product for Ma-on of 2004 at the bottom of the page, if that's in any interest

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave and infrared images ... looks better over the last few hours

[GCANE]

GCANE, where on CMISS do you get that product? Just curios?

Hi Rob:

Hope you are doing well. Where are you riding this one out?

Here is the URL for the microwave loop.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

Also, here is a link with an IR overlay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/ir.shtml

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 20.3N 143.7E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 21.3N 138.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 161800UTC 22.2N 134.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 171800UTC 24.3N 132.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

GCANE, where on CMISS do you get that product? Just curios?

Hi Rob:

Hope you are doing well. Where are you riding this one out?

Here is the URL for the microwave loop.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

Also, here is a link with an IR overlay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/ir.shtml

Thank you for the link, and were riding this one out in Brisbane Australia, you know decided to completely get out of the way this time. HAHA.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.5N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.5N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.5N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 31.1N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 143.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL 10 NM EYE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 141656Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN
EYE WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS PREVENTING OUTFLOW ON THIS
SIDE. HOWEVER, TY 08W MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
IS IMPROVING. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY WITH A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 48,
TY 08W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES AND REORIENTS
THE STEERING RIDGE. ALSO, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODIFYING THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER WATER WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITIES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES
JAPAN BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AFTER TAU 48 WITH THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. BOTH ECMWF AND UKMO ARE INDICATING AN
ENHANCED DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DISTURBANCE IN THE
EAST PHILIPPINE SEA AND THEREFORE TRACK TY 08W FARTHER WESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD. NOGAPS AND GFS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND ARE NOT INDICATING AS STRONG OF A DCI SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DCI
SCENARIO AND PERSISTENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z
AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Stronger landfall on this forecast, last forecast had it below 100kts by the time it reached Japan, this time it looks like they are going for +100kts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Stronger landfall on this forecast, last forecast had it below 100kts by the time it reached Japan, this time it looks like they are going for +100kts.

yep, 110kt

[Chacor]

JMA were up to 90kt on the intensity at 21z. 00z warning due soon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA were up to 90kt on the intensity at 21z. 00z warning due soon.

This was the 21z warning - looks like it was at 80kts:

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 20.4N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 21.3N 138.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 161800UTC 22.2N 134.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 171800UTC 24.3N 132.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

Up to 85kts now:

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 20.4N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 21.3N 137.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 170000UTC 22.7N 133.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 180000UTC 25.1N 131.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[StormingB81]

So far it is mixed half say it wont hit and are doing nothing here in Okinawa the other half is moving to et everything secure and prepare as if the storm will come close enough to have damaging winds here in Okinawa