2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[vbhoutex]

When I got home from vacation I had 1.97" in the rain gauge - not bad

Hopefully the next few days will bring us some more.

Well at least we know where all the rain went.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff is quite encouraging. I guess beggars can't be choosers.

Area looks to get a good shot at widespread rainfall today and again on Saturday.

Heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Upper level ridge of high pressure which has parked over TX for the last several months has moved far enough northwest to allow a deep tropical easterly flow to develop on its underside over the region. This flow is brining a very moist air mass with PWS of at least 2.1 inches into the region along with small disturbances moving westward under the ridge. One such disturbance is currently off the coast of LA this morning and moving westward and will be the player for this afternoon. Widespread mid and high level clouds blanket the area this morning and this clearly shows the deep layer moisture is in place. This cloud cover will also help to inhibit heating some resulting in a later start of thunderstorms this afternoon. As the northern Gulf disturbance moves overhead, combined with surface heating, and remaining surface boundaries from yesterday expect thunderstorms to develop. Entire area looks like it will see some action this afternoon with storms going well into the evening moving SW across the region. Will not rule out a few pulse severe events as seen yesterday over Montgomery and Liberty counties with wind damage as the center cores of storms load with heavy rain and that comes crashing to the surface resulting in strong winds.

Will go with at least 50% coverage this afternoon although I do believe the coverage may even be higher. Very moist and saturated air column and high PWS air mass supports heavy rainfall today of 1-2 inches under the rainfall cores in about 30 minutes.

Saturday will feature a very similar setup however models are pinging away at a near inland coastal boundary…possibly an old outflow boundary from storms this afternoon south of I-10 that they fire off Saturday afternoon. Storm motions look slower and this raises the threat for excessive rainfall given PWS remaining in the 2.1-2.3 inch range. Could see rainfall rates approach 3-4 inches per hour under the stronger cells on Saturday and given the slower storm motion this may result in rapid urban flash flooding of low lying areas and roadways. Overall extremely dry ground should help mitigate a larger flood threat.

Air mass really never dries out and upper ridge reaming to our north into the middle of next week which gives us a 30-40% rain chance each afternoon. Rainfall today and Saturday may actually help out the drought situation as it will be more widespread, with scattered daily summer type stuff going into next week.

[vbhoutex]

And

The historic Texas drought of 2010-2011 continues to worsen with nearly constant records being set.

Official weather records have been kept in the state of TX since 1895 and for this period of time to current this drought ranks as the 3rd worst to ever affect the state, but it is very close to 1st and 2nd place and without widespread rains soon it will likely become one of the worst droughts in state history. Based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index the list of the top 5 state droughts:

1. 1950-1957 (Sept 1956 peak)

2. 1916-1918 (Aug 1918 peak)

3. 2010-?

4. 1924-1925 (July 1925 peak)

5. 1999-2000 (Sept 2000 peak)

It is so dry across Texas that we are losing about 1.0 inch on the Palmer Drought Index each month statewide which is a staggering amount of loss. At the end of June 2010 this was the top 4 PDSI numbers for the worst droughts in TX history:

1. June 1956 : -6.54

2. June 1918: -6.41

3. June 2011: -6.37

4. June 1925: -5.80

Currently 72% of the state is in exceptional drought (the worst category) and 91% is in either exception or extreme drought the top two worst categories.

The October 2010 to June 2011 period is the driest October-June period ever for not only Houston, but the entire state of Texas. It is even worst for the Feb-June 2011 period for Houston which breaks the previous driest Feb-June period by almost 4.0 inches (WOW).

Top 5 Driest Feb-June Periods for Houston:

1. 2011 – 4.34 in

2. 1917-8.39 in

3. 1901-8.79 in

4. 1915-9.78 in

5. 1937-9.87 in

Top 5 Driest October-June Periods for Houston:

1. 2011-15.09in

2. 1917-16.72in

3. 1951-17.80in

4. 1933-20.96in

5. 1956-20.99in

Across SE TX the dryness began after the passage of Hurricane Ike in September 2008 and we have had below normal rainfall each year (2009, 2010, and 2011). The following are the rainfall departures for the climate sites dating back the last 3 years:

Galveston: -30.01 in

Houston IAH: -22.29 in

Houston Hobby: -28.20 in

College Station: -23.60 in

The following below is the rainfall departures for the October 2010 to July 14th 2011 period. While we have been dry for much of the last 3 years, the last 9 months have been brutal and that is where most of the deficits have occurred.

Bellville: -22.23

Brenham: -21.30

College Station: -19.94

Columbus: -21.65

Conroe: -24.81

Freeport: -21.70

Hobby: -22.85

IAH: -23.30

Katy: -20.67

Livingston: -27.45

Matagorda: -22.19

New Caney: -23.29

Tomball: -28.25

The extreme dryness has had a dramatic impact on water resources across the state with 317 jurisdictions now on mandatory water restrictions and an additional 230 on voluntary. There are 4730 water system in the state of TX and 551 are currently impacted with some kind of restrictions.

The Brazos and Colorado Rivers are running at their lowest flows ever recorded and water withdraws from the lower Brazos River have been suspended. Lake Travis has fallen to 36 feet below its normal pool level and is currently impounding about 1.1 million acre feet of water. Models run by LCRA suggest that if no significant rain falls in the next 2 months the lake will fall to 900,000 acre feet by September 1 triggering mandatory water restrictions. More information can be found at the link : http://www.lcra.org/library/media/publi ... ection.pdf


A total of 244 out of 254 TX counties currently have outdoor burn bans in place. Since April of this year in Harris County alone there have been 1230 fires that have burned 6750 acres requiring 204 evacuations. Since Jan. 1, 2011 a total of 12,186 fires have burned over 3.0 million acres across the state with 1573 structures lost and 28,948 structures threatened but saved.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/south_dm.png

[Flyinman]

Well glad to know my rain force field is still in effect after all these years! Had several large areas of rain heading this direction that either fizzled, split or went around the area. Most of the activity was to the North. Oh well, there is always tomorrow.

[vbhoutex]

Well glad to know my rain force field is still in effect after all these years! Had several large areas of rain heading this direction that either fizzled, split or went around the area. Most of the activity was to the North. Oh well, there is always tomorrow.

If we say that for enough years maybe it will happen. NOT!!!! It doesn't rain in Houston anymore.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Not sure whose weather makes me more depressed reading....yours or mine. But knowing drought as I do I think prolly yours wins.

[Flyinman]

A restaurant used to have on the sign, "Free Crabs Tomorrow" so when you inquired about the free crabs it was always tomorrow and tommorow never comes. That is what I am beginning to think about the rain for this area. I am glad to see parts of Southeast Texas getting some beneficial rain two days in a row though. Perhaps today is our day. Things look good on the radar this morning!

[CajunMama]

Looks like SE Texas is getting some much needed rain this morning.

[vbhoutex]

Not sure whose weather makes me more depressed reading....yours or mine. But knowing drought as I do I think prolly yours wins.

There is no win in either situation!!! The win would be if we could manipulate this weather so you get half of what you and we have been getting and switch them.
I have to admit the radar looks very promising this morning and it is cloudy, but it was the same way yesterday and NADA in my neck of the woods. It is good to know some of the areas are getting beneficial rain though, because we all need it, not just SE TX. The drought report posted above gives me great pause. I knew it was bad and even historic, but I guess I didn't realize how historic it was getting. CM, did you get any rains out of these systems the last few days?

[jasons2k]

I hope so but it looks like the heavy stuff is headed more north than west - the southern part of the 'blob' is fizzling-out like yesterday.

[Stephanie]

I thought I saw that Beaumont, TX received 4" of rain within the past day? Like you said David, at least some are getting it and the atmosphere around you is getting a little more moist. I hope that this is a good sign for all of you!

[Garnet1995]

although it looks like it is raining at my house on radar....a sprinkle nothing more...

[jasons2k]

The light rain is ending here now - it was only enough to barely wet the pavement.

[vbhoutex]

The light rain is ending here now - it was only enough to barely wet the pavement.

That is what we got at my house. It was an amazing 0.01"!!! Katdaddy is getting hit by a pretty good cell right now if radar isn't lying. Hopefully I am at least on the waiting list. Problem is this weeks waiting list is already done. We are expecting the heat back starting tomorrow. So far today it has only gotten up to 90F which is a huge blessing considering we haven't seen a high below 95f for over 45 days or so.

[southerngale]

I thought I saw that Beaumont, TX received 4" of rain within the past day? Like you said David, at least some are getting it and the atmosphere around you is getting a little more moist. I hope that this is a good sign for all of you!

While the airport recorded several inches yesterday, I didn't get a drop. It's hit or miss. This morning, I got right at an inch, though. Still hoping for more!! We so need it!

[Flyinman]

You can go to http://www.dd6.org and look at the rain information for the Beaumont area. While it may not mean alot to most, the areas with the most rain are very near the coast. The areas with a lesser amount are in town. Yes, areas did receive anywhere from over 5" to under 1" in the last 2 days. These rain guages are conservative. When I lived in Beaumont, the station down the street (Walden Road) always read at least .5" less than mine at home.

[southerngale]

The latest Drought Monitor is just unreal. The entire state of Texas is in a drought. 91% of the state is in the worst 2 drought categories and 72% is in the worst category. And it's not like Texas is a small state!

One year ago, 83% of the state was not in a drought at all and the few who were, were in the milder categories.

[South Texas Storms]

That drought monitor map is the ugliest drought monitor map I have ever seen for our state. It's so sad and unreal.
We can only hope it starts to improve everywhere soon.

[MGC]

I had my first decent rain here in Pass Christian in months and months...you folks over in La and Tx hope ya'll get some rain.....MGC

[PTrackerLA]

We've been missed badly during this whole event here in Lafayette. I'd say less than .50" of rain the past 4 days with excellent rain chances. Surrounding areas have picked up quite a bit but if we don't get some today or tomorrow looks like the heat and drought come back .