AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 47 WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. ALSO...TODAY...MAIN
WIND FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAS MAINLY NORTHEAST...AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OCCURED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY ARE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...IN
COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER LOCALLY. LATEST GFS90 COMPUTER
MODEL SHOWS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BRIEFLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET ANOTHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. FOR
SUNDAY...THETA-E VALUES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY AT 700MB TO NEAR 324K
FROM 333K TODAY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY LOOKS THE BETTER DAY IN TERMS
OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. AFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 47
WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT AT THIS MOMENT...THE WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM...TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
EVERY THREE TO FOUR DAYS WITH THE NORMAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS TKPK...TNCM AND TJMZ.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 78 91 / 20 20 30 30
STT 78 89 79 90 / 20 20 30 30
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WITH CUT OFF LOW STILL EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION NOW NEARING 60
WEST WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY
TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE LOCAL AREA AS IT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 53 WEST WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GFS MODELS AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS
MIMIC SAT DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS
WITH A MILD SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY FEW TO ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS CAP AND GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CULEBRA VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECT MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND TRAILING THE ABOVE
MENTIONS TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATE
MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...
GFS MODELS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH A SHARP RISE IN PWAT VALUES TO 2.00 INCHES OF MORE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS STILL A WAY OUT SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN UNFOLDS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
16/16Z WITH VCSH/VCTS OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFTER 16/16Z
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ...TJBQ
AND TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AT
10-15 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT AND ABOVE...WITH
OCNL HIGHER SFC WND GUST ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 88 79 91 80 / 30 30 30 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WITH CUT OFF LOW STILL EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION NOW NEARING 60
WEST WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY
TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE LOCAL AREA AS IT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 53 WEST WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GFS MODELS AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS
MIMIC SAT DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS
WITH A MILD SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY FEW TO ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS CAP AND GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CULEBRA VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECT MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND TRAILING THE ABOVE
MENTIONS TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATE
MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...
GFS MODELS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH A SHARP RISE IN PWAT VALUES TO 2.00 INCHES OF MORE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS STILL A WAY OUT SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN UNFOLDS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
16/16Z WITH VCSH/VCTS OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFTER 16/16Z
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ...TJBQ
AND TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AT
10-15 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT AND ABOVE...WITH
OCNL HIGHER SFC WND GUST ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 88 79 91 80 / 30 30 30 20
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
It looks like development in the EPAC side of Central America is a given,so our friends in Guatemala and El Salvador,watch for that.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SITUATED IN THESE TWO EXTREMELY WET ZONES.
A LOW CENTER OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY
W-SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE A SECOND LOW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W ACROSS THESE COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THIS SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE E
PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SITUATED IN THESE TWO EXTREMELY WET ZONES.
A LOW CENTER OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY
W-SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE A SECOND LOW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W ACROSS THESE COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THIS SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE E
PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD.
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cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
PRC021-031-033-061-127-139-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0303.110716T1738Z-110716T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-
138 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO AND SAN
JUAN
* UNTIL 430 PM AST
* AT 137 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR
FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 4:30 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1845 6603 1832 6596 1831 6610 1847 6618
$$
CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
PRC021-031-033-061-127-139-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0303.110716T1738Z-110716T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-
138 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO AND SAN
JUAN
* UNTIL 430 PM AST
* AT 137 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR
FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 4:30 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1845 6603 1832 6596 1831 6610 1847 6618
$$
CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO
SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 430 PM AST
* AT 219 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE WARNED AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS
AND CREEKS THROUGH AT LEAST 430 PM AST. THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER HAS
ALREADY OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS FROM RUNOFF FROM AN INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO RISE.
FOR THE RIO PIEDRAS NEAR HATO REY- RPOP4
FLOOD STAGE - 15 FEET.
AT 219 PM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO 16.80 FEET. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1847 6612 1848 6607 1832 6594 1829 6605
$$
AAS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO
SAN JUAN
* UNTIL 430 PM AST
* AT 219 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE WARNED AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS
AND CREEKS THROUGH AT LEAST 430 PM AST. THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER HAS
ALREADY OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS FROM RUNOFF FROM AN INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO RISE.
FOR THE RIO PIEDRAS NEAR HATO REY- RPOP4
FLOOD STAGE - 15 FEET.
AT 219 PM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO 16.80 FEET. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1847 6612 1848 6607 1832 6594 1829 6605
$$
AAS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION NOW NEARING 62 WEST WILL ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 55 WEST WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILT
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...COVERAGE FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN AND VICINITY
AREA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER...WERE IMPRESSIVE. NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL OVER THIS AREA IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS. THE PROXIMITY OF A
TUTT REFLECTION COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...BRINGING WITH
IT...CLOUDINESS...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY...A SLOT OF
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TUTT REFLECTION WILL MOVE DURING THE MORNING
...IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 55 WEST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...IN
THE LONG TERM...A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ...AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 16/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 80 91 / 30 30 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TUTT REFLECTION NOW NEARING 62 WEST WILL ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 55 WEST WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILT
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...COVERAGE FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN AND VICINITY
AREA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER...WERE IMPRESSIVE. NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL OVER THIS AREA IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS. THE PROXIMITY OF A
TUTT REFLECTION COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...BRINGING WITH
IT...CLOUDINESS...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY...A SLOT OF
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TUTT REFLECTION WILL MOVE DURING THE MORNING
...IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 55 WEST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...IN
THE LONG TERM...A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ...AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 16/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 80 91 / 30 30 20 20
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
From EPAC discussion at 22:05 UTC:
A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND INTO THE PACIFIC AT THE MOMENT. IT IS REFLECTING A 1008
MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES
OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N AND
LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS DESCRIBED IN
THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S TOWARD THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF
110W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP
CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.
A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND INTO THE PACIFIC AT THE MOMENT. IT IS REFLECTING A 1008
MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES
OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N AND
LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS DESCRIBED IN
THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S TOWARD THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF
110W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP
CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...TUTTS...PERTUBATIONS AND TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS.
HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE TUTT MOVES WEST OF THE
REGION BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
AIR TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 17/12Z IN
PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER 17/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ... TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST SAT JUL 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...TUTTS...PERTUBATIONS AND TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS.
HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE TUTT MOVES WEST OF THE
REGION BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
AIR TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 17/12Z IN
PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER 17/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ... TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
Discussion of EPAC and 94E at 4:05 UTC. Macrocane and alanstover,keep us informed about this dangerous event unfolding.
A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF
THE COSTA RICAN COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC. IT IS REFLECTING A
1009 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
LIES OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N
AND LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE
AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOUND OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA AND INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND
WESTERN HONDURAS JUST W OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE E OF 105W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED
TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.
A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF
THE COSTA RICAN COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC. IT IS REFLECTING A
1009 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
LIES OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N
AND LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE
AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOUND OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA AND INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND
WESTERN HONDURAS JUST W OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE E OF 105W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED
TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
Yeah cycloneye, heavy rains have been falling this afternoon/tonight in El Salvador, tomorrow I will post some observations and news about this event. Now I will post today temperatures in Central America. There were slightly warmer than normal temps in Belize, near normal temps in Guatemala, cooler than normal in El Salvador and Honduras and well below normal in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama thanks to the low that produced cloudy skies and persistent rains.Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.1°C (53.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F) Coolest for 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.3°C (52.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.5°C (61.7°F) Coolest for 2011
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
Good morning. Tropical Wave affecting the Lesser Antilles today will move west and arrive here tommorow,although most of the bad weather will pass south.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEARING 60 WEST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF 15
NORTH WAS MOVING WEST AT 15 -20 KTS AND WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE MANAGED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH (TUTT)WHICH WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE EASTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO EST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ITS EFFECTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING SINCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE APPROACHING
SAINT MARTIN AND WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE USVI LATER TODAY. FOR
PUERTO RICO TODAY WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. MAINLY EAST
WINDS PREVAIL FROM SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD PUSH
CONVECTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. INCREASED
PROBABILITIES TODAY FOR FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND ALSO WEST HALF OF
ISLAND. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60 WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY
EVENING MOISTURE INCREASES AND PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 17/12Z IN PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER
17/16Z MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ... TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 80 91 80 / 40 30 30 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEARING 60 WEST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF 15
NORTH WAS MOVING WEST AT 15 -20 KTS AND WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE MANAGED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH (TUTT)WHICH WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE EASTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO EST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ITS EFFECTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING SINCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE APPROACHING
SAINT MARTIN AND WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE USVI LATER TODAY. FOR
PUERTO RICO TODAY WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. MAINLY EAST
WINDS PREVAIL FROM SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD PUSH
CONVECTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. INCREASED
PROBABILITIES TODAY FOR FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND ALSO WEST HALF OF
ISLAND. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60 WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY
EVENING MOISTURE INCREASES AND PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 17/12Z IN PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER
17/16Z MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ... TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 20K FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 80 91 80 / 40 30 30 50
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...INVERTED UPPER TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CLOSE OFF AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...
WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. MONDAY WILL START OUT RELATIVELY DRY...
BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...AS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 30 40 40
STT 80 89 80 90 / 30 40 50 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...INVERTED UPPER TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CLOSE OFF AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...
WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. MONDAY WILL START OUT RELATIVELY DRY...
BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...AS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 30 40 40
STT 80 89 80 90 / 30 40 50 50
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143897
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 94E west of CA
Good morning. The parade of tropical waves has started,so expect periods of rain this week in the Caribbean in general.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 AM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NEAR 22N67W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO PROMOTE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR ON CLEAR AIR MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO DRIER AIRMASS AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS. EXPECTING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE AND
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
UPPER LOW NEAR 22N 67W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD VENTILATION
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR USVI COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND WE SHOULD EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE SAINT MARTIN RADAR THIS MORNING.
GFS SPLITS THE WAVE IN TWO SEGMENTS..ONE PASSES MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ONE BUT SMALLER PASSES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. NEVERTHELESS ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS 150
SUGGESTING THE TAIL OF THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE TO PASS OVER
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. NEXT WAVE THEN APPROACHES FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18/12Z. AFTER 18/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-25 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
AROUND 15K FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 89 80 90 81 / 20 50 50 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 AM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NEAR 22N67W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO PROMOTE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR ON CLEAR AIR MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO DRIER AIRMASS AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS. EXPECTING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE AND
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
UPPER LOW NEAR 22N 67W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONDUCIVE TO GOOD VENTILATION
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR USVI COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND WE SHOULD EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE SAINT MARTIN RADAR THIS MORNING.
GFS SPLITS THE WAVE IN TWO SEGMENTS..ONE PASSES MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ONE BUT SMALLER PASSES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. NEVERTHELESS ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS 150
SUGGESTING THE TAIL OF THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE TO PASS OVER
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. NEXT WAVE THEN APPROACHES FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18/12Z. AFTER 18/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-25 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
AROUND 15K FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 89 80 90 81 / 20 50 50 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143897
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.UPDATE...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.
THUS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE
AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18/16Z. AFTER 18/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
AROUND 15K FT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.UPDATE...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.
THUS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE
AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 18/16Z. AFTER 18/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TJMZ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO
AROUND 15K FT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143897
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A SOUTHWESTERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN FAVORS A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
DURING AT LEAST 24 HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GOES IR IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...SATELLITE DERIVED
TPW DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.1 INCHES. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECTING WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR-MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. NEVERTHELESS...ON THURSDAY...GFS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AFFECTING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 21/00Z-21/12Z.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 19/12Z IN PASSING SHOWERS.
AFTER 19/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10K
FT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 91 / 50 50 20 20
STT 79 90 81 91 / 50 50 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A SOUTHWESTERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN FAVORS A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
DURING AT LEAST 24 HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GOES IR IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...SATELLITE DERIVED
TPW DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.1 INCHES. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECTING WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR-MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. NEVERTHELESS...ON THURSDAY...GFS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AFFECTING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 21/00Z-21/12Z.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 19/12Z IN PASSING SHOWERS.
AFTER 19/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10K
FT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 91 / 50 50 20 20
STT 79 90 81 91 / 50 50 30 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143897
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
748 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC021-051-135-137-143-145-190145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0308.110718T2348Z-110719T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
748 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...VEGA BAJA AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 945 PM AST
* AT 745 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
945 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1838 6644 1848 6644 1847 6616 1836 6614
1836 6640
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC031-033-061-087-127-139-190100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0307.110718T2317Z-110719T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
LOIZA PR-
717 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND
LOIZA
* UNTIL 900 PM AST
* AT 705 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
900 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1836 6613 1845 6615 1846 6614 1847 6611
1844 6590 1836 6593
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
706 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC031-033-061-087-127-139-190100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0306.110718T2306Z-110719T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
LOIZA PR-
706 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND
LOIZA
* UNTIL 900 PM AST
* AT 705 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 9:00 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1836 6613 1845 6615 1846 6614 1847 6611
1844 6590 1836 6593
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
748 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC021-051-135-137-143-145-190145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0308.110718T2348Z-110719T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
748 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...VEGA BAJA AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 945 PM AST
* AT 745 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
945 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1838 6644 1848 6644 1847 6616 1836 6614
1836 6640
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC031-033-061-087-127-139-190100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0307.110718T2317Z-110719T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
LOIZA PR-
717 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND
LOIZA
* UNTIL 900 PM AST
* AT 705 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
900 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1836 6613 1845 6615 1846 6614 1847 6611
1844 6590 1836 6593
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
706 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
PRC031-033-061-087-127-139-190100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0306.110718T2306Z-110719T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
LOIZA PR-
706 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND
LOIZA
* UNTIL 900 PM AST
* AT 705 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 9:00 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1836 6613 1845 6615 1846 6614 1847 6611
1844 6590 1836 6593
$$
OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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