Development off SE Coast (Invest 98L)

[ronjon]

Circulation showing up nicely on JAX radar. Seems to be a slow S-SW drift. This may be our next INVEST later today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JAX&loop=yes

[LarryWx]

Correct Larry - NW shear looks to be about 20-30 kts. That's going to have to relax plus it'll have to diconnect from the frontal boundary to get going toward a tropical depression. Still, it's in a favorable location and its that time of year. Not sure about future movement as models have been inconsistent - latest GFS wants to take it at least partially W-SW over the FL peninsula and then eventually back NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Ronjon,
Agreed. Whatever this does, it does appear to be headed in the general direction of FL on Mon.
Interestingly, there does appear to be a somewhat decently defined LLC that even the often false alarm NAM doesn't seem to be modeling too well. Just compare the 6z NAM's sim. radar at hour six, which is real messy looking, and the more organized looking actual radar from Jax.

[NDG]

I think rotation noticed on radar & sat looks to be above the surface, I can't really see that defined cyclonic circulation by surface observations.
Plus, surface pressures are 2-3 mb higher than 24 hrs ago. It has a long way to go, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Circulation showing up nicely on JAX radar. Seems to be a slow S-SW drift. This may be our next INVEST later today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JAX&loop=yes

Possibly, if the convection can continue to build or maintain itself near the circulation. If the shear can relax just a tad, we may have something indeed.

Also, for this entity to have a chance to truly organize, it has to detach itself from the frontal boundary as time progresses.

[ronjon]

Starting to look organized on VIS SAT.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100612&endTime=-1&duration=3

[NDG]

Starting to look organized on VIS SAT.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100612&endTime=-1&duration=3

It sure looks like to have a nice cyclonic circulation trying to get better organized, but I still think that it is not that well organzed yet at the surface.
Surface pressure if anything continue to go up this morning.
That vorticity must be at H925 or H85, upper level winds don't look that terrible. Regardless, surprised that it is not an Invest yet.

[BigA]

Upper level conditions appear to be improving, especially if it drifts southward. But I don't see anything that shows me a surface circulation right now.

[LarryWx]

Upper level conditions appear to be improving, especially if it drifts southward. But I don't see anything that shows me a surface circulation right now.

KCHS thinks there is a weak sfc circ. although I don't follow the NAM comment:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1044 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING OFF THE GA/FL COAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THE NAM IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A CLOSED LOW IN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
IT TAKES THE LOW WEST INTO THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT.

[Nimbus]

The low formed right on the 30 N latitude line and has been drifting SSW best I can tell. Could die out once it gets over land unless the LLC reforms in the gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey all... been awhile

Surface reports do show a very weak surface low attached at the tail end of the stalled frontal boundary. the radar and satellite show a quite distinct mid level circ that is sliding ESE while the surface reflection is quite weak. but as usual we need some deep convection to maintain to get a strong surface circ. the upper dynamics bode well for deep convection to develop today and tonight and with a existing surface reflection in place it should not take long for a transitioning system to start to take shape. with the shear forecast to relax a little for the next couple days there is at least a 50/50 chance of something developing then being pushed back to the NE FL, GA coast; however it is possible for the mid level to drop farther SE and depending on where the deep convection develops, we could see the low level circ develop farther S sometime tomorrow. there is also the potential for a second system develop farther east along the old boundary.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a twist to a cut-off Low hanging by the Florida Alabama border.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion.

A RATHER WEAK LOW...SPINNING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IS FORECAST
TO START MIGRATING WESTWARD SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
OVERALL BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TWD THE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK CROSSING
THRU SOUTH TX AROUND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING OUR
RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY MON THRU WED. THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS
AND OR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE TUE....

It certainly looks messy out there.

[Aric Dunn]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion.

A RATHER WEAK LOW...SPINNING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IS FORECAST
TO START MIGRATING WESTWARD SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
OVERALL BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TWD THE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK CROSSING
THRU SOUTH TX AROUND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING OUR
RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY MON THRU WED. THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS
AND OR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE TUE....

It certainly looks messy out there.
[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/WeatherTAPcom-SoutheasternUSVisibleSatellite2011-07-1611-35-26.png[/img

thats funny.. the 12z GFS takes the LOW out to see ENE then NE :p

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion.

A RATHER WEAK LOW...SPINNING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IS FORECAST
TO START MIGRATING WESTWARD SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
OVERALL BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TWD THE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK CROSSING
THRU SOUTH TX AROUND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING OUR
RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY MON THRU WED. THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS
AND OR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE TUE....

It certainly looks messy out there.
[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/WeatherTAPcom-SoutheasternUSVisibleSatellite2011-07-1611-35-26.png[/img

thats funny.. the 12z GFS takes the LOW out to see ENE then NE :p

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

There are two different areas of low pressure. One currently over extreme south AL drifting WSW that is expected to move along the Gulf Coast toward LA/TX border and then there is the MCS which might have a surface reflection off the NE FL coast both along this trough boundary. Looks like the GFS sends the one off the NE FL coast out to sea and the AL Low westward along the Gulf Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

NWS Brownsville morning discussion.

A RATHER WEAK LOW...SPINNING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...IS FORECAST
TO START MIGRATING WESTWARD SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
OVERALL BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TWD THE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK CROSSING
THRU SOUTH TX AROUND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING OUR
RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY MON THRU WED. THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS
AND OR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE TUE....

It certainly looks messy out there.
[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/WeatherTAPcom-SoutheasternUSVisibleSatellite2011-07-1611-35-26.png[/img

thats funny.. the 12z GFS takes the LOW out to see ENE then NE :p

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

There are two different areas of low pressure. One currently over extreme south AL drifting WSW that is expected to move along the Gulf Coast toward LA/TX border and then there is the MCS which might have a surface reflection off the NE FL coast both along this trough boundary. Looks like the GFS sends the one off the NE FL coast out to sea and the AL Low westward along the Gulf Coast.

oh I apologize. I thought I read something different.

[cycloneye]

The squadron is ready to fly if needed starting on Sunday afternoon.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 161715
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
115 PM EDT SAT 16 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 17/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
       C. 17/1615Z
       D. 29.2N 78.6W
       E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 18/0600
       B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 18/0300Z
       D. 29.0N 78.5W
       E. 18/0500Z TO 18/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
       FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.



[Aric Dunn]

GFS out to sea... CMC leaves it behind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Now Invest 98L

Off of Jacksonville:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107161734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 300N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

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