with all due respect to Invest 92L....

[Scott_inVA]

THIS is far more interesting and probably, short-term, more important:
http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

UKMET remains clueless which is a huge disappointment to me but GFS is on this, did extremely well with Caribbean TCs last year and has had decent "early line" ideas on systems this year.

Also, 12Z GFS has the follow-up Invest at 120 @ 18.4|46.4.
This is outside (to the north and/or east) of the 20|60 benchmark I hang my hat on. Too soon to tell but that has been the trend.

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

[ameriwx2003]

Scott..I agree. I think the Caribbean system is the more immediate threat to be watched. I also agree about the UKMET.It has been pretty clueless with regards to storm formation( though it was the first model I saw that predicted Erika)

[wxman57]

Scott..I agree. I think the Caribbean system is the more immediate threat to be watched. I also agree about the UKMET.It has been pretty clueless with regards to storm formation( though it was the first model I saw that predicted Erika)

On the other hand, if the GFS is always the first model to predict that any shower in the tropics will become a storm, then it'll be right some of the time.

[ameriwx2003]

Wxman57 LOL.. I do think though that the GFS has improved over previous years when it used to take any shower and make it a cat 3 hurricane:):)

[Stormsfury]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

[Scott_inVA]

On the other hand, if the GFS is always the first model to predict that any shower in the tropics will become a storm, then it'll be right some of the time.

You raise a good point. I am not a GFS fan esp here in the East CONUS.

But, the AVN had a reasonable MOE at 72-120 hrs last year. This year it was on Ana (no pun intended ), had GA/SC for TD 7 which became 8 and quickly dropped the ATL idea for TD 9...and stayed generally Keys to western GOM. Wrong track, but right idea. Guess one needs to discount the other 28 TCs it's spun-up this year. LOL!

Scott

[alicia-w]

which of these is historically the most accurate?

[Stephanie]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2003082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It's interesting that this animation doesn't pick up the CV wave at all.

They now have the Caribbean wave curving to the north towards the SE USA/Midatlantic. We were first thinking it may go to the GOM right?

[alicia-w]

all of these model animations are pretty vanilla.........are they always so conservative?

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/