ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

98L sure looks to have continue to organize overnight. I'd say the odd of development in 48 hours are currently greater than 30%. I think if recon finds a circulation they will upgrade as there is plenty of convection associated with the circulation. Track will be interesting...currently thinking 98L will slowly drift to the S and W the next couple of days. Not sure if the trough will pick it up. Should continue to slowly intensify. Possible LLC is to the NW of the main convection and displaced from MCL so the shear is keeping it unstacked...MGC


Of course the above is not official but only the thoughts of MGC.

[HurricaneBelle]

Tweet from Jim Cantore:

"Tropical Low is looking much more interesting off the FL coastline: May have to make a trip."

[Nimbus]

Diurnal Max for convection was just about sunset yesterday so maybe we will see this tighten up again then.

[northjaxpro]

98L sure looks to have continue to organize overnight. I'd say the odd of development in 48 hours are currently greater than 30%. I think if recon finds a circulation they will upgrade as there is plenty of convection associated with the circulation. Track will be interesting...currently thinking 98L will slowly drift to the S and W the next couple of days. Not sure if the trough will pick it up. Should continue to slowly intensify. Possible LLC is to the NW of the main convection and displaced from MCL so the shear is keeping it unstacked...MGC


Of course the above is not official but only the thoughts of MGC.

MGC, I generally agree with your thoughts overall on 98L. The steering currents at least through the next 48 hours are going to remain rather weak. The system is going to meander around for quite some time. The trough indeed may not pick up 98L. We will know more later when Recon gets in there in the system. An upgrade to TD would not surprise me later today as well.

[Ivanhater]

Shows up nicely on radar...at the same time NW Florida is getting much needed rain but the Pensacola bay area is now under a flash flood warning with some areas getting over 5 inches of rain since midnight and the rain is continuing. This is all from the same trough split that spun up 98L.

[Ivanhater]

Looking better and better

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Looks closed

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30 knot wind report from the north side

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[Aric Dunn]

Here is the approximate center... based on sat,radar and surface obs.... the black circle

the Low is the best track position...

[Blown Away]

IMO, if there is a developed LLC it's near 28.1N/78.0W

[fci]

Thanks to wxman for the thoughts.
Experience tells me that this will become a TD, meander a bit and then shunt off to the NE.
I WISH that it would move towards SE Florida and be the drought buster that we sorely need. Rainy season has had a late start and although we have had much needed rain the past few weeks, the canals are very low, Lake O is extremely low and our lawns are brown.
So COME ON 98L, pick up only a little intensity and come over here and visit for a while.
I just expect that 98L will not cooperate and will come tantalizingly close to helping us out, only to turn its back on us......

[Aric Dunn]

if we get another burst of deep convection around the center .... we could have a TS when recon gets there.. since the background pressure are so high this will likely be a TS above typical pressure values

[Rgv20]

Wont be surprise if recon founds a TD later today. Big question is where would it go??

[Sanibel]

Sunny, light breeze, thin cirrus wisps, you would never know there was anything developing from the weather outside here. The air is still early season cool and dry as far as favorable airmass quality. From the tenacity of this bugger it should eventually burst and moisten up. The front it developed from is still forcing too much unfavorable air into it from the north.

[Steve H.]

Quite breezy this morning in Palm Bay FL. North winds blowing, and I'm at about 28N lat/80.2 Long. Could be an interesting couple of days.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm.... last couple radar images are showing a pretty decent burst around the center.. see if it continues...

[jinftl]

You convinced me...appreciate the level of analysis you are providing...in some ways the science behind whether a system will begin to develop or not seems more complex than for an already developed system....so many variables could make it or break it vs. a major like Frances plowing wnw in the central atlantic, steered by the position of the ridge and intensity based on eyewall replacement cycles.

Given the proximity, what would you place the odds of the nw bahamas being place under a ts watch or warning? florida east coast? as far south as my neighborhood (fort lauderdale)?

I guess it isn't so surprising that there is such disparity between models as to whether this will even develop, where it will go, etc....until (and if) a LLC is established, the models really don't have a solid basis from which to initiate from.

This is still an invest...of course recon could find otherwise. But how many invests have had scheduled recons cancelled or postponed at the last minute too? Sometimes satellite images can give the impression there is more out there than there really is...esp when you add in some pretty colors to depict convection. The question is, is this system organizing or just a sheared mess?

It will be an interesting Sunday for sure...this could go either way.

I can tell you a couple things... the shear is not strong enough to decouple the system.... and there is plenty of surface obs saying there is a closed low... also the models are having a hard time especially the global models becasue the system is very small.. the tropical models are doing much better with it

[Blown Away]

Watching the convection building, could be the start of a better defined center.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection on radar has begun to develop around the center... the storm motion velocities have increased a lot and the motion of the cells are starting to become very tight short circles... in all likelyhood if this continues... a TS could be at 5pm

[northjaxpro]

jinftl, it is still a bit early to speculate on possible watches or warnings, although we will find out a lot more a bit later today when Recon arrives to 98L.

But, given the southward drift continuing today of the system, I would think that if Recon finds a TD has formed later today, then a watchor warning would be posted for the NW Bahamas and possibly into portions of the Central Bahamas as well.

It is hard to speculate about the Florida coast at this time. If 98L meanders westward during the next 36-48 hours like some models are suggesting, then NHC would probably issue a watch along portions of the East Central FL coast in an area from about Palm Beach northward to about Titusville initially for my best guess. But, this just a speculation on my part.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

i guess one question would be is there anything that would begin to increase the overall size of this system as it develops? If that were to happen and this were to be a t.d., i can't imagine there not be some type of watch or warning (from the get go given the proximity to landmasses) for the nw bahamas and possibly (big ???) part of east coast of FL.

jinftl, it is still a bit early to speculate on possible watches or warnings, although we will find out a lot more a bit later today when Recon arrives to 98L.

But, given the southward drift continuing today of the system, I would think that if Recon finds a TD has formed later today, then a watchor warning would be posted for the NW Bahamas and possibly into portions of the Central Bahamas as well.

It is hard to speculate about the Florida coast at this time. If 98L meanders westward during the next 36-48 hours like some models are suggesting, then NHC would probably issue a watch along portions of the East Central FL coast in an area from about Palm Beach northward to about Titusville initially for my best guess. But, this just a speculation on my point.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

i guess one question would be is there anything that would begin to increase the overall size of this system as it develops? If that were to happen and this were to be a t.d., i can't imagine there not be some type of watch or warning (from the get go given the proximity to landmasses) for the nw bahamas and possibly (big ???) part of east coast of FL.

jinftl, it is still a bit early to speculate on possible watches or warnings, although we will find out a lot more a bit later today when Recon arrives to 98L.

But, given the southward drift continuing today of the system, I would think that if Recon finds a TD has formed later today, then a watchor warning would be posted for the NW Bahamas and possibly into portions of the Central Bahamas as well.

It is hard to speculate about the Florida coast at this time. If 98L meanders westward during the next 36-48 hours like some models are suggesting, then NHC would probably issue a watch along portions of the East Central FL coast in an area from about Palm Beach northward to about Titusville initially for my best guess. But, this just a speculation on my point.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Its a natural occurrence for the size and wind field to increase as the system intensifies. when the pressure drops at the center the pressure wave in the atmosphere spreads out like a rock being dropped in a pond. this causes the more inflow and the cycle continues.. to a point which is determined by outside factors..