ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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WxEnthus
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#441 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:05 pm

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#442 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:07 pm

They are being conservative as always. No reason this should not be Bret right now...I think I said that about 5 pages back. :D Not sure why they have track this way as the EURO, CMC and others dont even see it...I wouldnt trust these models GFDL and HWRF as far as I can throw them. and I work out.... :D
Last edited by ROCK on Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#443 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:10 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yeah the global models are not initializing this system well at all right now. Hopefully the 0z models tonight will have today's RECON data in them. Does anyone know if they will?


they will and will seal the deal on where this will go....the 18z GFS does not intialize Bret/ TD 2 correctly so it can be trashed this run...hell it doesnt even acknowledge its existence... :D

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
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#444 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:10 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 172204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 17/21:51:20Z
B. 27 deg 32 min N
078 deg 01 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 137 deg 29 nm
F. 164 deg 36 kt
G. 137 deg 29 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 20 C / 214 m
J. 24 C / 213 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 19
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 44 KT NW QUAD 21:55:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
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Re:

#445 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:11 pm

KWT wrote:H-A, well see, if they didn't upgrade when they found 43kts, no reason to expect they'll upgrade with 44kts, unless the convection strengthens more...they've made themselves pretty clear about where they stand with that despite what previous recon has suggested.

It'll either take a burst of deep convection or sometyhing stupid like a 50kt FL wind to upgrade it.


Let's take it easy please. They are proffesionals that do a great job every day with all the tools that they have. When and if there is the data necessary and plenty of convection,then the upgrade comes,but give them space please.
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#446 Postby WmE » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:13 pm

I think when deeper convection consolidates a little more they will upgrade.
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#447 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:14 pm

Also since it does not look like it will make landfall they could be on the conservative side.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#448 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:14 pm

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#449 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:16 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172213
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 39 20110717
220230 2754N 07826W 9770 00330 0149 +210 +205 067032 033 025 001 00
220300 2756N 07827W 9771 00331 0149 +213 +205 064032 033 024 001 00
220330 2757N 07828W 9774 00328 0150 +215 +206 063030 031 022 002 00
220400 2758N 07829W 9771 00333 0151 +215 +207 065030 032 022 000 00
220430 2759N 07831W 9772 00333 0152 +215 +207 066028 029 019 001 00
220500 2800N 07832W 9772 00332 0152 +216 +208 066029 030 021 000 00
220530 2801N 07833W 9769 00336 0152 +216 +208 067029 030 021 002 00
220600 2802N 07834W 9772 00334 0153 +216 +209 064030 030 020 001 00
220630 2803N 07836W 9769 00336 0154 +217 +209 066028 029 016 003 03
220700 2804N 07837W 9770 00338 0155 +217 +210 067028 028 011 002 00
220730 2805N 07838W 9772 00337 0156 +215 +210 067025 027 010 002 00
220800 2807N 07839W 9765 00343 0157 +210 //// 061024 030 011 005 05
220830 2807N 07841W 9774 00335 0156 +216 +210 061029 029 /// /// 03
220900 2807N 07843W 9611 00467 0148 +209 //// 057028 029 012 003 05
220930 2806N 07845W 9185 00874 0153 +191 //// 056028 030 018 001 05
221000 2806N 07847W 9077 00980 //// +183 //// 056031 032 019 002 01
221030 2805N 07849W 9081 00975 0159 +186 //// 058028 028 026 001 01
221100 2805N 07852W 9080 00976 0159 +184 //// 055030 031 028 002 01
221130 2804N 07854W 9079 00978 0159 +187 //// 044032 034 032 001 01
221200 2804N 07856W 9086 00972 0159 +186 //// 040035 036 030 002 05
$$
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#450 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:17 pm

Appears recon found 44kts winds in NW Quad on last pass out of center... center moved more east then south on last fix. 50mph at 1kft? sure seems like a TS to me?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#451 Postby vacanechaser » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:18 pm

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yeah the global models are not initializing this system well at all right now. Hopefully the 0z models tonight will have today's RECON data in them. Does anyone know if they will?


they will and will seal the deal on where this will go....the 18z GFS does not intialize Bret/ TD 2 correctly so it can be trashed this run...hell it doesnt even acknowledge its existence... :D

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif



maybe to small a system for it to pick it up right now.. i would assume the recon data should help in that regard..


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Re: Re:

#452 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Let's take it easy please. They are proffesionals that do a great job every day with all the tools that they have. When and if there is the data necessary and plenty of convection,then the upgrade comes,but give them space please.


Huh? Don't think I've said anything there thats negative about the NHC, I know I've been quite critical but what I've said is true, it'll either take an increase in convection depth or a higher wind estimate for them to upgrade and thats pretty obviously true!

Doesn't appear to have become any stronger per say looking at FL/surface estimates compared to an hour ago, so I'd say they'll still stick with a very conservative 30kts but with the additional note that its right on the cusp and could be a TS at any time...to upgrade soon would be to admit they made a mess up last time round given next to nothing has changed since then.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#453 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:21 pm

sure seems like at TS to me!

Time: 21:55:00Z
Coordinates: 27.6N 78.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.7 mb (~ 29.17 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 212 meters (~ 696 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.0 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 36° at 44 knots (From the NE at ~ 50.6 mph)
Air Temp: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Dew Pt: 20.3°C (~ 68.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#454 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:25 pm

The thing thats keeping this from an upgrade is convection
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#455 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:27 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
GCANE wrote:Big MCS firing over SW FL.

More than likely this will create an anti-cyclone to the SW of the LLC.

If so, and TD02 tracks into it, could spell some big trouble.


Image


GCANE, could you be a little more specific of what you're saying is big trouble? Possibly a run at cane status?



A TC, when it tracks into an anti-cyclone, will spin up.

So, if an anti-cyclone does indeed develop over the heavy convection, to the SW of TD02; and TD02 tracks SW into the anti-cyclone, it will likely strengthen.

This would take it roughly over a largely populated area.

All depends on how this tracks and if the anti-cyclone really develops.
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#456 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:28 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172223
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 40 20110717
221230 2804N 07858W 9080 00975 0159 +183 //// 040033 034 028 002 01
221300 2803N 07900W 9084 00973 0160 +183 //// 041033 034 025 001 05
221330 2803N 07902W 9074 00981 0160 +180 //// 041033 033 023 002 01
221400 2803N 07904W 9077 00978 0161 +181 //// 040033 034 024 001 01
221430 2802N 07906W 9084 00972 0161 +179 //// 038033 033 026 000 05
221500 2801N 07908W 9082 00975 0161 +181 //// 038032 032 024 001 01
221530 2801N 07910W 9080 00977 0160 +182 //// 040032 033 023 001 05
221600 2800N 07912W 9083 00974 0161 +182 //// 040032 033 021 002 01
221630 2800N 07913W 9075 00983 0159 +186 //// 041033 033 022 000 01
221700 2759N 07915W 9086 00972 0160 +186 +186 041031 032 022 001 00
221730 2759N 07917W 9077 00981 0160 +184 //// 042030 031 023 001 05
221800 2758N 07919W 8695 01345 0155 +170 //// 033026 027 /// /// 05
221830 2757N 07921W 8284 01762 //// +158 //// 032022 024 022 001 05
221900 2756N 07923W 8022 02040 //// +153 //// 021022 023 021 000 05
221930 2756N 07925W 7720 02369 //// +135 //// 002018 019 020 001 01
222000 2756N 07927W 7421 02703 //// +111 //// 354017 018 021 000 01
222030 2755N 07929W 7148 03021 //// +097 //// 349019 019 020 001 01
222100 2755N 07931W 6871 03358 //// +077 //// 349021 021 020 001 01
222130 2755N 07933W 6598 03694 //// +059 //// 355020 020 021 000 01
222200 2754N 07936W 6461 03869 //// +045 //// 351021 021 018 001 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#457 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:29 pm

That dry air you see to the NNW on WV is choking it IMO.
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#458 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:30 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 172225
97779 22234 10279 79700 36400 35021 04021 /8023
RMK AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 21
Last Report
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#459 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:34 pm

Yeah that dry air is a real problem, I think the system is going to have a hard time with it to be honest and I wouldn't be surprised if Bret doesn't even come from this, heck who knows may have even peaked.... :?:

Still won't take much to get to Bret, heck it probably already is Bret to be honest :wink:
Last edited by KWT on Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#460 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:34 pm

Finished with recon & heading back...

Image


Low pressures found during flight:

Image
Last edited by WxEnthus on Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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