ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180445
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 14 20110718
043530 2833N 07915W 8324 01736 //// +140 //// 057014 015 022 001 01
043600 2833N 07913W 8418 01637 //// +149 //// 063016 018 023 002 01
043630 2832N 07912W 8434 01619 //// +148 //// 059015 016 023 001 01
043700 2832N 07910W 8430 01625 //// +149 //// 063016 016 020 001 01
043730 2831N 07908W 8426 01628 //// +149 //// 060015 016 020 001 01
043800 2831N 07907W 8430 01621 //// +148 //// 060016 016 022 000 01
043830 2830N 07905W 8431 01623 //// +147 //// 057015 015 019 000 05
043900 2830N 07904W 8427 01624 //// +147 //// 060017 018 /// /// 05
043930 2831N 07903W 8425 01625 //// +145 //// 064019 020 010 000 05
044000 2832N 07905W 8429 01625 //// +149 //// 058018 019 /// /// 05
044030 2831N 07906W 8426 01625 //// +148 //// 050017 018 /// /// 05
044100 2830N 07905W 8429 01624 //// +145 //// 053015 016 019 000 05
044130 2829N 07904W 8430 01623 //// +145 //// 056017 018 018 000 01
044200 2828N 07903W 8429 01623 //// +145 //// 061017 018 018 001 01
044230 2827N 07901W 8429 01623 //// +145 //// 058016 016 017 000 01
044300 2825N 07900W 8430 01623 //// +146 //// 053016 017 017 001 01
044330 2824N 07859W 8429 01623 //// +146 //// 051017 017 017 000 01
044400 2823N 07857W 8429 01623 //// +147 //// 060019 021 015 001 01
044430 2822N 07856W 8429 01623 //// +147 //// 058018 020 017 000 01
044500 2821N 07855W 8433 01618 //// +145 //// 061016 017 016 001 01
$$
;

[NDG]

I think the recon is going to find Bret to be a bit closer to the 27th latitude, something like 27.2 or 27.1N, continuing with its SSE to SE track tonight.

[artist]

interesting marine forecast -

AMZ088-180930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011


.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM BRET NEAR 27.5N 78.0W 1009 MB AT 11
PM EDT MOVING SE OR 145 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. BRET IS FORECAST TO TURN N WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 27.7N 78.0W MON MORNING...THEN
TURN MORE TO THE NE AS IT NEARS 28.5N 77.4W EARLY MON EVENING
...TO 29.7N 76.7W TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
APPROACHES 30.7N 75.5W EARLY TUE EVENING BEFORE MOVING N OF AREA
WED. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 28N WED THROUGH FRI IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

turning north in later this morning?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180455
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 15 20110718
044530 2820N 07854W 8430 01620 //// +146 //// 063016 017 019 000 01
044600 2819N 07852W 8430 01620 //// +149 //// 060016 018 021 000 01
044630 2817N 07851W 8475 01575 //// +149 //// 069017 018 023 001 01
044700 2816N 07850W 8495 01553 //// +151 //// 069016 017 023 000 01
044730 2815N 07849W 8492 01556 //// +150 //// 076015 015 023 000 01
044800 2814N 07848W 8494 01554 //// +156 //// 068014 014 022 000 01
044830 2813N 07846W 8493 01556 //// +159 //// 062015 016 021 000 01
044900 2811N 07845W 8492 01556 //// +156 //// 063015 016 020 000 01
044930 2810N 07844W 8492 01556 //// +156 //// 070016 016 020 001 01
045000 2809N 07843W 8492 01557 //// +155 //// 073018 018 021 001 01
045030 2808N 07842W 8492 01554 //// +151 //// 073018 018 021 000 01
045100 2806N 07841W 8494 01554 //// +150 //// 074019 020 021 001 01
045130 2805N 07840W 8492 01554 //// +150 //// 069021 021 019 000 01
045200 2804N 07839W 8492 01554 //// +152 //// 066019 020 020 000 01
045230 2802N 07838W 8494 01552 //// +155 //// 066019 019 021 000 01
045300 2801N 07837W 8494 01552 //// +155 //// 062019 019 022 000 01
045330 2800N 07836W 8492 01553 //// +150 //// 062020 021 023 000 01
045400 2758N 07835W 8493 01551 //// +150 //// 063020 021 023 000 01
045430 2757N 07834W 8492 01552 //// +152 //// 066021 021 022 001 01
045500 2755N 07833W 8494 01550 //// +150 //// 067022 023 022 001 01
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

I think the recon is going to find Bret to be a bit closer to the 27th latitude, something like 27.2 or 27.1N, continuing with its SSE to SE track tonight.

I agree. Looking at the long range radar out of Miami it appears that the southern band of the circulation is about to move over Grand Bahama

[NDG]

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 180505
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 16 20110718
045530 2754N 07832W 8492 01550 //// +150 //// 067023 023 023 000 01
045600 2753N 07831W 8491 01551 //// +151 //// 065024 026 025 000 01
045630 2751N 07830W 8494 01548 //// +152 //// 072027 027 026 000 01
045700 2750N 07829W 8492 01550 //// +154 //// 077026 027 026 000 01
045730 2749N 07828W 8488 01552 //// +161 //// 072026 026 025 000 01
045800 2747N 07827W 8491 01547 //// +158 //// 070026 027 023 000 01
045830 2746N 07827W 8499 01540 //// +158 //// 073026 026 024 000 01
045900 2745N 07826W 8492 01546 //// +165 //// 070024 024 025 000 01
045930 2743N 07825W 8492 01545 //// +160 //// 063024 024 025 000 01
050000 2742N 07824W 8499 01536 //// +159 //// 067025 026 025 001 01
050030 2741N 07823W 8497 01539 //// +154 //// 064030 032 028 001 01
050100 2739N 07822W 8487 01548 //// +154 //// 063032 033 029 000 01
050130 2738N 07821W 8493 01537 //// +155 //// 061034 034 029 000 01
050200 2736N 07820W 8491 01539 //// +156 //// 062036 039 029 001 01
050230 2735N 07819W 8491 01539 //// +150 //// 057036 037 032 002 01
050300 2734N 07818W 8498 01528 //// +154 //// 058032 033 031 001 01
050330 2732N 07817W 8495 01528 //// +159 //// 058033 035 031 001 01
050400 2731N 07816W 8491 01529 //// +160 //// 058035 036 034 000 01
050430 2730N 07815W 8492 01526 //// +161 //// 058036 037 036 002 01
050500 2728N 07814W 8487 01529 //// +164 //// 058038 039 035 002 01
$$
;

[ROCK]

still moving SSE to me with the latest vis....current steering...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[SouthFloridawx]

That's a massive ridge.

[ROCK]

That's a massive ridge.

its a big sucker.... for sure....you slide that east and Bret is going the way of the 0z BAMD.....

[NDG]

[artist]

thanks NDG and all for the help Can you take it from here?

[artist]

any of the models showing much?

[NDG]

thanks NDG and all for the help Can you take it from here?

Only for a few more minutes after it intercepts its center.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS doesnt even acknowledge Bret as a closed low....garbage....I think Jese you were right....so small they cant see it....

Even the almighty NAM doesnt see it.....

[dwsqos2]

That's an incredibly tight circulation. Also, 51 knots flight-level (850 mb) winds were just measured, suggestive of about 40 knots at the surface. Some unflagged SFMR values were over 50 knots, but Bret is still shallow; so I don't know how reliable those are.

[NDG]

Looks like center is near 27.2 N & 78W, it has moved straight south!

URNT15 KNHC 180515
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 17 20110718
050530 2727N 07813W 8494 01518 //// +169 //// 057039 040 038 004 01
050600 2726N 07812W 8491 01521 //// +172 //// 052039 040 038 006 01
050630 2724N 07812W 8494 01515 //// +173 //// 048037 038 037 005 01
050700 2723N 07811W 8494 01514 //// +175 //// 044035 036 041 007 01
050730 2721N 07810W 8492 01514 //// +170 //// 037034 035 041 006 01
050800 2720N 07809W 8493 01511 //// +170 //// 032034 035 047 006 01
050830 2718N 07808W 8495 01502 //// +157 //// 039036 038 045 003 01
050900 2717N 07807W 8491 01501 //// +159 //// 047037 037 050 009 01
050930 2716N 07806W 8490 01493 //// +145 //// 048041 043 053 013 01
051000 2714N 07805W 8496 01479 //// +157 //// 043041 043 047 003 01
051030 2713N 07804W 8494 01474 //// +172 //// 042034 036 049 002 01
051100 2711N 07803W 8482 01479 //// +208 //// 050022 027 040 000 05
051130 2710N 07801W 8499 01456 //// +204 //// 030012 014 032 002 01
051200 2709N 07800W 8497 01459 //// +196 //// 007006 009 017 001 01
051230 2708N 07758W 8488 01467 //// +200 //// 266010 013 015 001 01
051300 2707N 07757W 8498 01459 //// +195 //// 257019 021 028 001 01
051330 2706N 07755W 8484 01476 //// +190 //// 246026 029 042 001 01
051400 2706N 07753W 8501 01462 //// +187 //// 231032 033 043 002 05
051430 2704N 07752W 8493 01478 //// +174 //// 230040 046 043 002 01
051500 2703N 07751W 8493 01486 //// +166 //// 228050 051 049 012 05
$$
;

[NDG]

Per recon report, looks like center is near 27.2N & 78W, it has moved straight south!

[stormhunter7]

looks like recon inbound on a center about 29 miles SSE of the 00Z data. Plus the SFMR showed 53kts surface 10sec wind on NW side of storm.. about 10 miles from cntr

[artist]

it had an 05 though -
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable