ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible close-up ... center displaced

[hurricanefloyd5]

Could reach hurricane status today IMO with the increase in convection if it persists. Amazing how the models for the most part (ECMFW had a slight pickup then dropped it) missed Bret. Seems these trough tail end small systems give the models fits.

Is it going to miss bret and if so what would happen then?

[Sanibel]

Bret is just a weak early season TS off a front. It is eating too much sick air from the continent. We have that dry bright sunshine over us again today which means the dry mid-layer is still in place. The system hasn't separated out from the rest of the front yet. Don't know what it will do when it runs into the Atlantic but right now it's being choked by conditions.

[artist]

Seems RECON is off for today, but scheduled for tomorrow?

[SouthFloridawx]

[brunota2003]

Sitting on the runway:

000
URNT15 KNHC 181713
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 01 20110718
170330 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +230 +212 ////// /// /// /// 36
170400 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +231 +212 ////// /// /// /// 36
170430 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +235 +212 ////// /// /// /// 36
170500 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +235 +212 ////// /// /// /// 06
170530 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +235 +212 ////// /// /// /// 06
170600 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 0176 +235 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
170630 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
170700 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
170730 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
170800 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
170830 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +235 +211 ////// /// /// /// 36
170900 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 //// +235 +211 ////// /// /// /// 06
170930 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +210 360000 000 /// /// 03
171000 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0176 +235 +210 360000 000 /// /// 03
171030 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0177 +235 +209 360000 000 /// /// 03
171100 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0178 +235 +209 360000 000 /// /// 03
171130 3025N 08855W 0175 00001 0177 +235 +208 360000 000 /// /// 03
171200 3025N 08855W 0176 00001 0177 +235 +208 360000 000 /// /// 03
171230 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0177 +235 +208 360000 000 /// /// 03
171300 3025N 08855W 0176 00001 0178 +235 +208 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

But someone else is going to have to take over...I have work.

[Frank2]

Yesterday at this time the system looked pretty impressive, even by my conservative standards, but not so today, thankfully...

It's a small system with limited outflow and moving slowly northeast, so hopefully it won't be an issue for anyone...

Frank

[eastcoastFL]

I was really hoping bret would swing by palm beach county for a little while before he headed out to sea. We may still have a chance if that high moving across the central us gets into the atl before he heads out.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
200 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 77.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY OF BRET LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SouthFloridawx]

The weakness is evident here. Yes there is a massive ridge, but it's pretty obvious what is going to happen.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181813
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 04 20110718
180300 3004N 08446W 4848 06150 0349 -092 -208 342010 011 /// /// 03
180330 3003N 08443W 4848 06150 0348 -091 -201 339011 011 /// /// 03
180400 3003N 08440W 4847 06149 0348 -090 -199 336012 012 /// /// 03
180430 3002N 08436W 4848 06147 0348 -091 -198 328012 013 /// /// 03
180500 3001N 08433W 4847 06151 0349 -093 -203 332011 012 /// /// 03
180530 3000N 08430W 4847 06151 0349 -094 -205 331011 012 /// /// 03
180600 2959N 08427W 4847 06151 0349 -095 -204 333011 011 /// /// 03
180630 2958N 08424W 4844 06156 0350 -095 -206 338008 009 /// /// 03
180700 2957N 08421W 4848 06150 0349 -095 -217 347007 008 /// /// 03
180730 2956N 08417W 4846 06152 0348 -095 -223 351007 008 /// /// 03
180800 2955N 08414W 4846 06150 0348 -095 -219 354007 009 /// /// 03
180830 2954N 08411W 4847 06149 0348 -095 -214 001008 008 /// /// 03
180900 2953N 08408W 4847 06147 0347 -095 -218 353009 009 /// /// 03
180930 2953N 08405W 4847 06147 0347 -095 -218 356009 009 /// /// 03
181000 2952N 08402W 4848 06147 0346 -095 -223 356008 009 /// /// 03
181030 2951N 08359W 4847 06147 0346 -095 -226 347008 008 /// /// 03
181100 2950N 08356W 4846 06149 0345 -095 -224 349007 007 /// /// 03
181130 2949N 08352W 4847 06145 0345 -095 -225 348007 007 /// /// 03
181200 2948N 08349W 4848 06145 0344 -093 -229 348007 007 /// /// 03
181230 2947N 08346W 4846 06147 0344 -091 -232 347007 008 /// /// 03
$$
near Deadman Bay near the Florida Gulf coast

[OuterBanker]

Interesting note. Bret will probably amount to nadda as far as US mainland. But he is having an effect on insurance. Seems my teller can't get insurance on her house until it leaves. He is holding up writing home owners policys. My, my are insurance companies paranoid nowadays.

[Ivanhater]

Looks to be intensifying

[drezee]

Even though Bret is small and light on convection, I believe Recon will find a 60-70mph TS with a pressure below 995.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Even though Bret is small and light on convection, I believe Recon will find a 60-70mph TS with a pressure below 995.

is that an eye popping out?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

is that an eye popping out?

I believe that is the beginning of an eyewall forming. I think it's likely Bret will reach hurricane strength in 12-18 hrs. No threat to the U.S. and will probably pass far enough north of Bermuda as to have no significant impact there.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181843
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 07 20110718
183300 2904N 08141W 5052 05822 0325 -062 -256 270002 003 /// /// 03
183330 2903N 08138W 5052 05821 0325 -065 -256 280002 003 /// /// 03
183400 2902N 08135W 5052 05823 0326 -065 -254 268002 002 /// /// 03
183430 2901N 08131W 5052 05823 0326 -066 -251 254002 002 /// /// 03
183500 2900N 08128W 5052 05822 0325 -070 -242 283002 004 /// /// 03
183530 2859N 08125W 5050 05821 0324 -075 -213 285004 005 /// /// 03
183600 2858N 08122W 5050 05823 0325 -079 -203 290002 003 /// /// 03
183630 2857N 08119W 5052 05821 0324 -080 -193 292002 003 /// /// 03
183700 2856N 08116W 5052 05821 0324 -080 -194 288002 003 /// /// 03
183730 2855N 08113W 5050 05823 0324 -080 -200 261003 003 /// /// 03
183800 2854N 08110W 5052 05820 0323 -080 -198 263004 005 /// /// 03
183830 2853N 08107W 5051 05821 0323 -080 -202 278005 005 /// /// 03
183900 2852N 08104W 5050 05821 0322 -080 -203 286005 005 /// /// 03
183930 2851N 08101W 5050 05821 0322 -080 -203 281004 004 /// /// 03
184000 2850N 08058W 5052 05820 0323 -080 -209 268004 005 /// /// 03
184030 2849N 08055W 5052 05821 0323 -080 -204 274005 005 /// /// 03
184100 2847N 08052W 5052 05820 0323 -079 -196 257005 006 /// /// 03
184130 2846N 08049W 5050 05822 0323 -073 -209 243004 005 /// /// 03
184200 2845N 08046W 5061 05808 0325 -070 -230 252005 006 /// /// 03
184230 2844N 08043W 5134 05703 0327 -065 -200 249008 009 /// /// 03
$$
over Cape Canaveral

[Ivanhater]

Wrapping up nicely...convection expanding on the western side

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 181853
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 08 20110718
184300 2843N 08040W 5255 05528 0323 -051 -176 267006 008 /// /// 03
184330 2842N 08037W 5401 05313 0309 -035 -166 311005 005 /// /// 03
184400 2841N 08034W 5570 05058 0150 -016 -129 295004 005 /// /// 03
184430 2840N 08031W 5755 04797 0150 +001 -141 317004 005 /// /// 03
184500 2839N 08028W 5925 04560 0155 +011 -125 337007 008 /// /// 03
184530 2838N 08025W 6065 04369 0145 +026 -093 331008 008 /// /// 03
184600 2837N 08022W 6217 04168 0139 +044 -083 322007 008 /// /// 03
184630 2836N 08019W 6437 03886 0140 +063 -139 288008 011 /// /// 03
184700 2835N 08016W 6680 03581 0154 +075 -265 272011 012 /// /// 03
184730 2833N 08013W 6932 03274 0174 +080 -261 268011 013 /// /// 03
184800 2832N 08010W 7165 03001 0187 +077 +008 267015 015 /// /// 03
184830 2831N 08007W 7413 02719 0184 +095 +058 287012 014 /// /// 03
184900 2830N 08005W 7662 02442 0185 +107 +083 296009 009 /// /// 03
184930 2829N 08002W 7922 02160 0185 +125 +064 329009 010 /// /// 03
185000 2828N 07959W 8204 01864 0184 +147 +031 338010 011 /// /// 03
185030 2828N 07957W 8424 01626 0168 +162 +054 355012 012 /// /// 03
185100 2827N 07954W 8449 01599 0162 +165 +056 357012 012 /// /// 03
185130 2826N 07952W 8451 01595 0164 +164 +029 359011 013 /// /// 03
185200 2825N 07949W 8453 01595 0167 +160 +038 003008 009 /// /// 03
185230 2824N 07947W 8452 01596 0166 +160 +034 005007 007 /// /// 03
$$

in the Atlantic east of Fort Pierce